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NFL Picks: Week 11

Free NFL Pick’em: Week Eleven

NFL Picks: Week 11Last week, there was a slate full of chalk games and let’s just say there were a few upsets. The Patriots got smacked by the Titans, a Titans team that seems to show up some weeks and take an extra bye or two during other weeks. The Cowboys played their best football with their backs against the wall and beat the Eagles in Philly. And the Giants went west and beat the 49ers one week after the 49ers looked to be in good form. This week is full of games that are toss-ups. With a multitude of close lines and powerhouse matchups, this week could be the determining week for people at the head of their pick’ems. One could easily get 10-12  picks right or 10-12 picks wrong. Let’s see what to make of it all.

Check out our staff pick’em by clicking here. Brad continues to lead the staff in both straight-up and ATS. He has a record of 100-44-2 straight-up, giving him a two-game lead over me, and he has a record of 90-58 ATS, giving a comfortable lead over the field. Very impressive Brad keep it up!

Here are my picks for Week 11.

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Carolina at Detroit

Spread: Carolina -5

After a beatdown last Thursday against the Steelers, the Panthers had a long week to recover and re-focus. I expect them to come out firing against a spiraling Lions team. The Lions have been terrible and the buzzards are circling over HC Matt Patricia’s head already. His defense is bottom five against the run and the opposing Panthers love to run the ball as their offense is 3rd best on the ground. Not a promising narrative for the Lions.

My Pick: Carolina 30-23

Cincinnati at Baltimore

Spread: Even for Now

With questions about who will start at QB for the Ravens, the line has not been made for this game. My guess is Lamar Jackson will make his debut for the Ravens. Logically, the pick here is the Bengals considering they will likely be facing a rookie QB. Heck, the Bengals have won 3 of their last 4 in Baltimore. With that said, a large part of their success against the Ravens can be attributed to A.J. Green, and he almost certainly won’t play on Sunday. On top of that, the Bengals defense has been atrocious as they are giving over 450 YPG to opposing offenses. And opposing rookie QB Lamar Jackson can light teams up on the ground, which is exactly what I expect on Sunday.

My Pick: Baltimore 28-24

Dallas at Atlanta

Spread: Atlanta -3.5

zekeIt’s hard to feel good about picking the Cowboys. With their inept coaching staff and consistent inconsistency, Dallas has fans scratching their heads. If there is anything I do know about this game, it’s how effective Zeke can be on the ground for Dallas. He is having a relatively quiet strong season for the Boys, he just hasn’t scored like we are used to seeing. I bet he finds the end zone more than once this week, as the Falcons are surrendering 5.2 YPC and they have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns this season. Dak continues to will the Cowboys forward even when things turn grim. Take the Cowboys on the sole fact that they are only 3.5 point dogs, a close to 50/50 line, and the public is taking the Falcons at nearly 75%.

My Pick: Dallas 27-23

Houston at Washington

Spread: Houston -3.5

The Texans 6-0 run has been impressive, their offense has been explosive and their defense has finally stepped up at least in times of need. At some point, they have to lose and looking forward at their schedule they could easily win out. However, this game is dangerous for the Texans. The opposing Redskins have shown their defense is no joke.  The Redskins have worked their way to 6-3 record and now they are being disrespected by the bookies at home. A large part of the Redskins success can be attributed to Alex Smith. Before the season, I noted that this guy has a knack for winning, and I think he does it again this week.

My Pick: Washington 24-21

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville

Spread: Pittsburgh -6.5

I had this game circled on my schedule preseason. Boy things have changed. Jacksonville has fallen into the toilet and it’s hard to see them resurfacing. They stuck it to the Steelers twice last season and I am sure the Steelers want to return the favor. With the return of Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville is a much more competitive team, and I think they keep it closer than the line suggests. But the Jags defense hasn’t been the same this season, and they don’t take the ball away nearly a much as they did during their AFC Championship run.

My Pick: Pittsburgh 30-25


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Philadelphia at New Orleans

Spread: New Orleans -10

-10??? What? I know the Saints have been dominant, and the Eagles have struggled, but would you really be that surprised if the Eagles won this game? I mean come on, they just want the Super Bowl, Philly has been unlucky this year. It happens. Let’s not forget what the Eagles are capable of, that’s all I am saying. I am still taking the Saints, but an Eagles cover seems like the most chalk pick of the week.

My Pick: New Orleans 27-24

Tampa Bay at N.Y. Giants

Spread: N.Y. Giants -1.5

I am pretty sure I miss every Bucs pick. They have been a troublesome team for me to decipher. Last week, I was sure they would get it rolling against the Skins, and the Skins shut them down. Now they play the Giants and I am not sure the Bucs can beat any team at this point… The Giants have been unlucky this year as their division rival Eagles. The G-Men have lost 5 games by one score. This week, they get it done against a Bucs team that no longer scares anyone. Saquon might have 200 plus yards from scrimmage (for the second time this season) against this terrible Bucs defense.

My Pick: N.Y. Giants 27-23

Tennessee at Indianapolis

Spread: Indianapolis -1

Andrew Luck FantasyMariota has brought the Titans back to life, just after I thought it was over for him. He was posting one of the worst quarterback ratings in the league before his last two games. His rating over the last two has been better than 119. The elbow issues that plagued him seem to be an afterthought. Unfortunately for the Titans, Andrew Luck is back under center. Luck is 9-0 vs the Titans in his career. And with his dominant campaign to date, I don’t think that narrative changes at all. This game offers some more variance for pick’em fans. The Colts are being picked only 34% of the time this week. The line is suggesting the Titans should win, thanks to recency bias.

My Pick: Indianapolis 29-27

Denver at L.A. Chargers

Spread: L.A. Chargers -7.5

The Charges have struggled with the Broncos, losing 11 of the last 14 matchups between these two teams. So maybe this game is closer than we think. Things have changed in Denver from years past. Their QB play is below average and their defense is no longer intimidating. I have no doubts the Chargers win this one, LOCK of the week. L.A. is playing too well, and they need this game to keep pace with division rival Kansas City.

My Pick: L.A. Chargers 27-17

Oakland at Arizona

Spread: Arizona -6.5

Who would have thought that the 2018 Cardinals would be favored by 6.5? These toilet bowl games scare me, who knows if either team actually desires to win the game. The focus for both of these franchises has to be on the 2019 NFL Draft. With that said, the Raiders have three field goals and no touchdowns in their last two games. The last time I said Derek Carr stinks, he came out and had a career highlight type game. I’ll say it again, Derek Carr stinks.

My Pick: Arizona 24-18

Minnesota at Chicago

Spread: Chicago -2.5

Another tough game, another tough decision. The Vikings should have Stefon Diggs back and Dalvin Cook is also playing. This game will be the ultimate indicator of where the Vikings stand in the NFC hierarchy. Many thought they would be a Super Bowl contender before the season. They haven’t lived up to that notion. While my mind tells me to take the Bears behind their rock-solid defense, my gut tells me to take the Vikings. Besides, this is yet another 50/50 game that is being picked ridiculously in one team’s favor. I am trying to surge forward in my pick’ems this week and you should too.

My Pick: Minnesota 24-23


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Kansas City at L.A. Rams

Spread: L.A. Rams -3

The most high-profile game of the year has finally arrived and it brings one of the highest projected point totals in history to the party. The Chiefs and Rams can both score at will as we already know. The difference over the last four weeks has been their scoring defense. The Chiefs have given up 17 PPG during that span, while the Rams have surrendered 28 PPG. It seems as if the Chiefs have played the better football as of late between these two teams. Take the Chiefs in a coin toss, and again, you can gain some of that much-needed variance.

My Pick: Kansas City 37-34


Eliminator/Survival Suggestions:

  • Chargers
  • Panthers
  • Ravens


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