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NFL Picks: Week 10


Free NFL Pick’em: Week 10

NFL Picks: Week 10Week 10 offers a slate of games that looks like it’s full of chalk picks. With 10 games featuring teams favored by at least 6.5 points, it will be important to try and pick out the few upsets. We also need to nail the games that are slated to be close. Those are the games where you can gain an edge in your pick’em as the public will pick these games closer to 50/50. Washington at Tampa, Jacksonville at Indy, and New York at San Francisco are the games you will need to go 3 for 3 on if you want to gain an edge this weekend.

Keep up with our NFL staff picks by clicking here. Brad Castronovo has taken a one-game lead over me in straight up pick’em, and he continues to dominate the ATS picks. Brad is picking correctly 68% of the time straight up, and he is picking correctly ATS 61%. Props to Brad, but the race is just over halfway through and there is still time to catch him! The same goes for all of you out there chasing the leaders in your friendly pick’ems, so don’t give up!

Here are my Week 10 picks.

Arizona at Kansas City

Spread: Kansas City -17

There isn’t much to discuss here. The Chiefs have the number three offense in the league and the Cardinals have the 32nd ranked offense in the league. Pat Mahomes is playing like he has been in the league for 10 years, and for the Cardinals, well let’s just say Josh Rosen doesn’t have the supporting cast to play on the level of a first-round pick. Rosen’s 69.9 passer rating is dreadful and in large part is due to his weak supporting cast. There will be better days ahead for him, but those days might not be in this calendar year.

My Pick: Chiefs 35-20


Buffalo at N.Y. Jets

Spread: N.Y. Jets -7

Josh McCown will start Sunday for the Jets. The vet is making his first start of the season. His career record as a starter isn’t pretty at 27-71. Despite the record, McCown has shown he can be competent as a starter in the NFL. Most of the games he has played have been for bad football teams, and that’s no different this time around. Thankfully for McCown and the Jets, the Bills aren’t very good either.  McCown has a .500 record or better against only 10 teams in the NFL and he has faced all 32. He has a chance to pull to an even 2-2 against Buffalo on Sunday.

My Pick: Jets 20-13


Jacksonville at Indianapolis

Spread: Indianapolis -3

It’s beginning to look like the end of the Doug Marrone and Blake Bortles era in Jacksonville. If the Jags fall on Sunday they will be sitting at 3-6, and they will essentially be out of the AFC playoff race, and they are one year removed from an AFC Championship appearance. Blake has played only 2 games this year in which he has finished with a passer rating above 90, that’s not going to cut it in this league. For Doug Marrone, well let me just say that I heard a clip on the radio the other day, Marrone wasn’t even aware that one of his starting corners is going to miss the game this Sunday… The Colts are rolling behind Andrew Luck’s 23 TD passes and the emergence of second-year back Marlon Mack.

My Pick: Colts 27-23


New England at Tennessee

Spread: New England -7.5

Marcus MariotaOne week ago I said the Titans stink, can you blame me? Mariota has truly been the key to their success. In his 4 losses this year, he has 1 TD and 4 INTs. In his 3 wins (he did not start in Tennessee’s 4th win due to injury) Mariota has 4 TDs and 1 INT. If he is healthy, he can still do damage to opposing defenses. I am going with Tennessee to pull off the upset here after witnessing their resilience last week against Dallas. Mike Vrabel spent a lot of time with the Patriots, and I think he may be able to rally his team to victory this Sunday when familiar faces come to town.

My Pick: Titans 27-24


Washington at Tampa Bay

Spread: Tampa Bay -3

Washington was favored against the Falcons last week and got smoked, now they are dogs on the road in Tampa. That fact is a tribute to their inconsistency and lack of identity this season. I don’t feel comfortable picking them when I don’t know which team will show up on Sunday. The Bucs haven’t been much better, but their offense is still lethal when they chuck the ball all over the place. Mike Evans is coming off a 1 catch performance last week, and you can be sure he wants to rebound quickly against the Redskins on Sunday. We will see how he performs when he matches up on Josh Norman. I am betting he finds some room.

My Pick: Bucs 31-23


Atlanta at Cleveland

Spread: Atlanta -6.5

The Falcons are 4-4 after winning 3 straight and my guess is they keep it rolling against the Browns. Atlanta continues to dominate offensively and the Browns have sputtered after a strong defensive start. Cleveland is 1-4 in their last 5 games and they are headed for another top 10 pick in 2019. With that said, Cleveland is +11 in turnover margin, which is best in the NFL. Their ability to take the ball away keeps them in games, but they always seem to find a way to pull a ‘Browns’ and lose.

My Pick: Falcons 34-26


Detroit at Chicago

Spread: Chicago -7

The Bears decimated the Bills last week, in large part because of their ferocious defense. The Bears are +10 in turnover margin, right behind the Browns. The Bears defense is top 10 in fumbles recovered, interceptions, sacks, and defensive touchdowns. We all saw Matt Stafford decide to pitch the ball with nothing much to gain last week against the Vikings, and we saw the Vikings run the pitch into the end zone. That sort of carelessness with the football has plagued Stafford throughout his career, and he can’t afford mistakes against the Bears defense.

My Pick: Bears 30-23 


 

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Miami at Green Bay

Spread: Green Bay -10

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have been solid at home, 3-0 this season. It is safe to say that the Packers can’t be happy with their record heading into week 10 but, they can be confident they will win on Sunday against Miami in Lambeau. Rodgers has only one interception on the season and he can win on Sunday by continuing to protect the football. His opponent, Miami, has led the NFL in interceptions with 15 to this point in the season. If the Fins hope to pull off an upset, they need to find a way to pick off Rodgers a few times, or this game could get ugly fast.

My Pick: Packers 28-20


New Orleans at Cincinnati

Spread: New Orleans -6.5

New Orleans stuck it to the undefeated Rams last week. Now they travel to Cincinnati to face a Bengals team that will be missing their top offensive weapon in A.J. Green. This feels like a trap game for the Saints and pick’em fans. But without Green, the Bengals don’t have much left in the passing game other than emerging star Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon. I believe Cincinnati will keep it close, but ultimately the Saints have too much firepower. Michael Thomas continues to produce for New Orleans at a historic pace, he has caught 70 of 79 targets on the season.

My Pick: Saints 34-26


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L.A. Chargers at Oakland

Spread: L.A. Chargers -10.5

I am not sure what to say about the Raiders. They are on the 10-year plan I guess. Gruden has made head-scratching decisions throughout the season and the team continues to play worse and worse. The Chargers, on the other hand, are rolling and even though this is normally a tough division matchup, it certainly doesn’t look the part this week. Expect Melvin Gordon and the rest of the Chargers weapons to get theirs on Sunday. Go Chargers Go…

My Pick: Chargers 35-13


Seattle at L.A. Rams

Spread: L.A. Rams – 9.5

Russell Wilson and Co. didn’t show up until late in their game last week against the Chargers. If they expect to beat the other team from L.A. then they will need to play for all four quarters. Speaking of the other team from L.A., the undefeated Rams finally fell last week. I expect their defense to step up after getting torched by the Saints. Rams’ corner Marcus Peters was pretty fired up after getting torched by Michael Thomas. He’ll have an opportunity to bounce back against an uninspiring Seahawks’ receiving core.

My Pick: Rams 30-24


Dallas at Philadelphia

Spread: Philadelphia -7.5

The Cowboys blew it on Monday night in a game that they most certainly needed to have. Now they fly to Philly and will take on an Eagles team that is slowly getting healthy. Dallas can’t afford to lose this game, and I am not sure Jason Garrett can either. If the Cowboys fall to the Eagles on Sunday night, they will be 3-6 and all but eliminated from playoff contention. I expect this to happen, and quite frankly, I am sick of watching Jason Garrett botch games. Fly Eagles Fly.

My Pick: Eagles 30-17


N.Y Giants at San Francisco

Spread: San Francisco -3.5

Another stacked primetime game! Just Kidding. With both teams combining for three wins on the season, there isn’t much to get excited about. However, 49ers QB Nick Mullens offers us something to look forward to. Mullens lit the scoreboard up in his debut last week, and now he has a chance to grab the attention of the world on Monday night. Luckily for the young 49ers QB, he faces a lowly Giants team. The Giants lackluster play has me picking against them the rest of the year.

My Pick: 49ers 27-20


Eliminator/Survival Suggestions :

  • Falcons
  • Chiefs
  • Chargers

 

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Good Luck!

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