Every offseason there hundreds of prop bets that become available for the upcoming NFL season. Usually, the heavy favorites feature odds that appear to be unappealing, forcing the reader’s eye further down the list. There’s a reason why so many names make an NFL betting prop bet list, as sportsbooks are hoping you’re willing to make a wager on a long shot homer bet. When in reality, the NFL MVP list should really consist of a dozen players or more.
Some positions on the field are just more likely to win the MVP award, making any bet outside of the quarterback a high-risk wager. In the last 20 years, there have only been four players that we’re NOT a Quarterback win the award, all of which were running backs. Marshall Faulk won the league MVP with the Rams back in 2000. Shaun Alexander won it with the Seahawks in 2005, followed by LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 and finally Adrian Peterson in 2012. But for the most part, this is a quarterback award.
This year Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to win the award. Mahomes is coming a huge season, leading the Chiefs to an exciting Super Bowl win over the 49ers, a game in which he led a fourth-quarter comeback against an excellent defense. The reigning Super Bowl MVP was awarded a $450m contract extension with the Kansas City Chiefs that has smashed records not just in the NFL, but in all of the sports. Now he’ll be asked to do it again this season.
|Josh Allen (Qb)
My Pick: Mahomes +400
As I mentioned at the top, usually the favorites to win awards are not that appealing, however, Patrick Mahomes at +400 to win the league MVP sounds pretty good in my opinion. You may not remember anything except the Chiefs playoff run, but Mahomes 2019 season stats did regress from the year before. Mahomes threw for 50 touchdowns throwing 14 more than he did in 2018. He also had 1000+ more passing yards than the previous season. The Chiefs won the same number of games as they did each season, but as a whole, the 2018 chiefs team scored 114 more points throughout the season. That’s one less Touchdown per game. My point is, if anyone wants to suggest that Mahomes won’t be able to compete with himself, and is in line for a year of regression, he’s already had it. With the addition of the first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire, a speedy pass-catching weapon that seems perfect for the offense, the Chiefs could have a better season than they did the previous year.
The MVP award usually includes leading the league in statistical category, much like how he did in 2018. At 4 to 1 odds, I think Mahomes is a safe bet for MVP pick.
My Long Shot Pick: Matt Ryan +3500
The Falcons have had back to back 7-9 seasons the past two years, but have been restocking the depth chart with talent through the NFL draft. They’ve been quietly adding some excellent young players that could be ready to take the next step this season. Injuries have plagued this team, especially on defense the last few years, but an aggressive offseason adding new blood on both sides of the field has the potential to surprise. Big names like Hayden Hurst and Todd Gurley could help Matt Ryan extend the play and allow the offensive coordinator more options when drawing up plays. At +3500, Matt Ryan is a nice sleeper bet, the guy has a nine-year streak of 4000+ yards and nearly cracked 5,000 yards in 2016 and 2018.
Justin has been playing fantasy football since 2004, he plays in dozens of leagues in all formats and has a great understanding of what it takes to build a championship team. Justin also loves betting on games and is a life long Seahawks fan.