NFL Expands International Reach in 2025
The NFL has seven international games across five countries in 2025, marking the most overseas contests in a single season as the league continues its global expansion efforts. The slate began with the Kansas City Chiefs facing the Los Angeles Chargers in São Paulo, Brazil, on September 5. This represents the second consecutive year the NFL will play in South America following last season’s successful debut.
NFL International Games
- Week 1: Chiefs at Chargers (Sao Paulo) – Chargers 27-21 (line was 47.5)
- Week 4: Vikings at Steelers (Dublin)
- Week 5: Vikings at Browns (Tottenham)
- Week 6: Broncos at Jets (Tottenham)
- Week 7: Rams at Jaguars (Wembley)
- Week 10: Falcons at Colts (Berlin)
- Week 11 Commanders at the Dolphins (Madrid)
Betting Trends?
The National Football League’s expansion into international markets has created unique betting opportunities for sharp wagerers willing to study the trends emerging from games played outside the United States. With nearly two decades of data from contests in London, Mexico City, Germany, and beyond, clear patterns have emerged that differ significantly from typical domestic NFL games. With an international match scheduled for the next four weeks, I thought I’d examine some information on betting trends.
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Unders Dominate Recent International Action
The most striking trend involves game totals falling short of oddsmakers’ projections. Point totals for the last four NFL London games have come in under the betting lines, with games averaging just 43.5 total points. This represents a significant departure from typical NFL scoring, suggesting that travel fatigue and unfamiliar environments consistently impact offensive production.
Historical data support this pattern across the broader international series. Between 2007 and 2024, international games have averaged just under 44 points per contest, with visiting teams outscoring designated home teams 24 to 20. The under trend became particularly pronounced during one stretch when five consecutive London games failed to reach their posted totals.
However, bettors should note an important caveat. While the standard over hits at just above 50 percent in international games, when totals do exceed the betting line, they average 54.6 points. This suggests that when international games turn into shootouts, they tend to produce significantly more scoring than anticipated.
Travel Impact Creates Predictable Disadvantages
The evidence strongly suggests that jet lag and unfamiliar surroundings have a measurable impact on player performance. Recent international games have featured prominent quarterbacks posting statistics well below their seasonal averages. This trend appears consistent across skill positions, with teams struggling to maintain their typical offensive rhythm in foreign venues.
The travel factor extends beyond individual performances to overall team preparation. Teams often struggle to adjust to the different time zones, playing surfaces, and crowd dynamics that vary substantially from their home environments. These factors combine to create the scoring suppression that has made under bets profitable for informed wagerers.
Favorites Provide Consistent Value
Despite the challenges of international play, favorites have historically performed well in overseas contests. The betting public often overreacts to the perceived equalizing effect of neutral sites, creating value on teams that maintain their fundamental advantages regardless of location.
The data shows that seventeen designated home teams have won international games compared to twenty-one visiting teams. However, this slight edge for visiting teams appears more related to scheduling considerations than any inherent advantage, as the NFL typically designates stronger teams as visitors to balance competitive equity.
Experience Factor Proves Overrated
Despite logical assumptions about the value of international playing experience, the data reveal minimal correlation between previous overseas games and improved performance. Teams making multiple trips to London or other international venues show no significant advantage over first-time participants.
The Jacksonville Jaguars exemplify this trend. Despite playing more international games than any other franchise, the Jaguars have posted a mediocre 5-6 record both straight up and against the spread in London contests. Their extensive international experience has not translated into meaningful betting advantages.
International games often feature higher public betting interest due to their novelty and prime television positioning. This increased attention can create market inefficiencies as casual bettors focus on narratives rather than fundamental analysis. Sharp bettors can capitalize on these situations by focusing on measurable factors rather than media storylines.
The combination of travel fatigue, unfamiliar conditions, and public overreaction to international storylines has created profitable opportunities for disciplined bettors. The key lies in recognizing that international games remain NFL contests governed by the same fundamental principles, despite their exotic locations.
Looking Forward
As the NFL continues to expand its international presence with games in Brazil, Spain, Ireland, and Australia, these trends are likely to persist. The league’s commitment to playing seven international games in 2025 provides additional data points for tracking these patterns.
Bettors should approach international games with specific strategies adapted to their unique characteristics. The evidence suggests focusing on under bets, backing favorites in most situations, and avoiding the temptation to overvalue experience or home-field designations that carry little meaning in neutral international venues.
The NFL’s global expansion has inadvertently created one of the most predictable betting environments in professional sports. For sharp bettors willing to study the data rather than follow the hype, international games represent a consistent source of profitable wagering opportunities.
