NFC Team Win Totals Deep Dive
It’s hope season NFL fans. It’s the time of the year when every fan who doesn’t follow the Cardinals feels like their team is about to turn a corner or fix the woes of the previous year to emerge as the 2023 Cinderella story.
For a certain cohort of fans, that hope spells opportunity. The opportunity to turn their extensive football knowledge into cold hard cash. But if you don’t have that extensive knowledge, fear not, because here at Gridiron Experts we’ve done the hard yards for you. In this two-part column, I’m going to look at each division’s win totals. For this exercise, I’ll be using DraftKings Sportsbook odds.
With each division, I’ll give you an analysis of the totals, predictions and my pick for the money maker in each division. Now, I shouldn’t have to say this, but of course, I will; this is merely my opinion based on analysis, not a guarantee, please don’t go and bet your child’s college fund based on this article. Take this piece for what it is, analysis and insight you are welcome to consider when forming your own decision on what to bet on.
That’s enough preamble, strap yourself in and let’s do this.
NFC East
| NFC East | Win Total | Over | Under | My Prediction |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9.5 | -140 | +120 | 9 |
| New York Giants | 8.5 | +120 | -140 | 7 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 11.5 | -110 | -110 | 12 |
| Washington Commanders | 6.5 | -120 | +100 | 6 |
From least to East! That was the story of last season, a division clawing its way back from sub-mediocrity to exciting and competitive football. If you’re being honest with yourself a weak schedule helped that to some effect, which is a luxury the East no longer has. So I’d expect to see some regression across the board, with the exception of the Eagles who have a GM that seems to outperform his previous offseason every year.
The Cowboys and Eagles are the teams to hit their over in this division, they are well-rounded, and their defense can easily account for any bumps in their offense. The Commanders are settling in for yet another round of everyone’s favorite game show: Who is our Quarterback? As for the Giants, please see below…
The Money Pick – Giants Under 8.5 Wins
Sorry Giant’s fans, last year there was a lot of crowing about the Giant’s not being taken seriously and I don’t mean to get on that train early this year. But when I look at the departures and additions it feels like you haven’t had overall improvement. So I can’t see a repeat of your 9-win season this year. I do believe in Brian Daboll, the reigning coach of the year. But it’s not exactly unprecedented for a Coach of the Year to regress:
- 2021, Mike Vrabel, followed up with 7 – 10
- 2020, Kevin Stefanski, followed up with 8 – 9
- 2018, Matt Nagy, followed up with 8 – 8
Those are just a few examples but feel free to look into the last 20 Coach of the Year winners and I think you’ll be shocked at the sheer volume of those who didn’t follow up.
NFC North
| NFL North | Win Total | Over | Under | My Prediction |
| Chicago Bears | 7.5 | -135 | +115 | 8 |
| Detroit Lions | 9.5 | -105 | -115 | 9 |
| Green Bay Packers | 7.5 | -105 | -115 | 8 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.5 | -130 | +110 | 7 |
The NFC North has to be the hardest division to predict, there are huge variables on every team. Is Jordan Love a competent quarterback? Have the Bears turned the corner? How many one-score games does Minnesota win this year, and will Dalvin Cook be back? After an odd draft, have the Lions actually improved?
Whilst we can’t answer those questions definitively, here are my thoughts. Let’s start with the Packers, Jordan Love showed enough in his start against the Eagles to earn himself the benefit of the doubt. The organization likes him enough to extend for the 5th year but he is the biggest wild card. I’m predicting an 8-win season because I what has flashed on tape, though it wouldn’t surprise me if they finished with 4 wins, or 10. It really is the great unknown in Wisconsin this year. The Lions have improved on a defense, that last year lost them a lot of games. If Jared Goff doesn’t regress significantly this year, like many analysts I see them winning 10 and confidently entering the playoffs. Just as it was 12 months ago, the hype around Justin Fields is palpable, but until he has proven himself to be an effective passer of the ball, all that’s changed is his division has become harder. He is the key here, having a solid WR1 added to the lineup will certainly help, but if he is going to be great he has to show it.
The Money Pick – Minnesota Vikings under 8.5
Coach Kevin O’Connell found a way to win last year, historically. 11 out of the 13 wins from last season were one-score games. That’s fantastic for fans during the regular season, but the true Vikings showed up in the playoffs resulting in an unceremonious ejection. Now heading into 2023, a contract year for Kirk Cousins, things aren’t looking great. Za’Darius Smith is off to pass rush for the Browns, and there is serious speculation about Dalvin Cook’s time in Minnesota being over. To win the way they did last season was many things; exciting, exhilarating… but one thing it is not, sustainable. Looking to 2023 the Vikings have the 8th hardest strength of schedule, and that is going to bring them all the way back down to earth. Sorry Skol Nation.
NFC West
| NFC West | Win Total | Over | Under | My Prediction |
| Arizona Cardinals | 4.5 | -130 | +110 | 4 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 6.5 | -110 | -110 | 6 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 8.5 | -130 | +110 | 10 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10.5 | -120 | +110 | 10 |
Ah the wild NFC West. This time last year we were fawning over the Allen Robinson and Mathew Stafford connection. We guffawed at the Seahawks for rolling with Geno Smith. We couldn’t wait to see Trey Lance lead the offense to glory. What a delightful reminder that hope springs eternal in the NFL.
Arizona bottoming out this division is no surprise. Frankly, if DeAndre Hopkins ends up out the door, I’d be hitting the under on 4.5 wins in a heartbeat. But for now 4 – 5 wins seems about right. Worth noting they are currently underdogs in every single one of their games in the coming season. San Francisco owns the mansion but doesn’t have the front door key. The key in this case being quarterback clarity. That really defines their season and their chance of hitting the over on a win total of 10.5 could be decimated by a classic Sam Darnold losing streak to kick off the year. The Los Angeles Rams have done what they could with their draft capital and cap situation but also lost some key pieces. I’m tempted to select the Rams under 6.5 wins as the money pick, but all my money picks thus far have been betting the under. So let’s dive into some positivity!
The Money Pick – Seattle Seahawks over 8.5 wins
Atop the list of sentences, I never expected the write before last season: “The Seattle Seahawks are doubling down on their Comeback Player of the Year Geno Smith”. Who knew Geno Smith would have the season he had, they love him in the building, and every piece of media you can get your hands on shows Geno putting in the work to keep that success going. Seattle had one of the most productive draft classes ever last year, and they followed it up with a fantastic draft this year. They added the top receiving prospect and a very solid running back. Stocked up their line, and added to a defense that often let them down in 2022. Including but not limited to pairing this year’s best cornerback prospect Devon Witherspoon, with last year’s 5th-round rookie standout Tariq Woolen. I admit, it took me a while to get on board the Geno Smith train, but now I’m sitting front and center. The Seahawks are looking at 10 wins this year, and you can’t tell me otherwise!
NFC South
| NFC South | Win Total | Over | Under | My Prediction |
| Atlanta Falcons | 8.5 | +115 | -135 | 8 |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.5 | -135 | +115 | 8 |
| New Orleans Saints | 9.5 | +105 | -125 | 7 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6.5 | +110 | -130 | 6 |
This brings us finally, to the NFC South. A division that no one is particularly excited to be watching outside of their own fan bases. But if you look a little closer there are some key factors to watch that make for exciting football. Let’s also not forget that the NFC South has the easiest strength of schedule by far, mostly because they have to play each other twice but that doesn’t change the fact.
The Panthers, sent an absolute haul to move up to the first draft pick this year and snagged what they hope to be their franchise quarterback in Bryce Young. He is the most intriguing part of the South. Some call him the next Mahomes, others point to his stature and say he will be lucky to survive 17 games without injury. Everything Young puts on tape, points to the former. That doesn’t mean he will be balling out from day 1, at its core this is a growth year for Carolina. No playoff soup for you, but a bright future to look forward to. The Falcons have been an offseason darling of mine save for one very important point, the quarterback. Desmond Ridder can not get you to the promised land. It is worth noting that despite their public-facing statements they seem to agree with me.
https://twitter.com/ConPow1124/status/1653784049318608901?s=20
Alas, the yet-to-be-seen ceiling of Desmond Ridder aside, a loaded supporting cast can still get you 8 – 9 wins, particularly in a division of this caliber.
The Buccaneers are relying on Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask to take them back to the playoffs this year. Even though I’m higher on Baker than consensus, I don’t believe either of them will provide enough juice. Hitting the under on the Buccaneers. Just know, Mayfieldiens, that doing so hurts me more than it does you.
The Money Pick – New Orleans Saints under 9.5 wins
It may feel like I’m being overly harsh on teams but the reality is the gap between the AFC and NFC is wider than it’s been in a while. So I feel like I’m being realistic. In fact, I think I’ve held the bitter harsh analyst in… until now. The Saints I grew up with were stalwart contenders, always relevant. But handing the keys over to Dennis Allen, without so much as a proper search for a Head Coach was a mistake. Operating beneath Sean Peyton is not the same as being Sean Peyton. Just ask the two guys who are not Bill Belichick, Matt Patricia, and Josh McDaniels. Then when the Raiders replace Derek Carr with more attractive Derek Carr Jimmy Garoppolo, the Saints swoop in. Derek Carr came from a franchise with poor coaching, who haven’t proven themselves, but with some elite ball catchers, what has changed? Sorry to the good people of New Orleans, but this year is not your year of 10 wins.
