AFC TEAM WIN TOTALS DEEP DIVE
If you, like many of us just finished the series finale of Succession, and thought to yourself, those darn rich people have no respect for money! Then the subsequent thought is normally along the lines of… but if I ever made it big and became rich, it’d be different! So you decided it’s time to hit Draft Kings Sportsbook and get to work on the making it big part.
After reading the first part of this two-part series, “NFC Win Totals Deep Dive”, you are back for more, and rightfully so. Without further ado, let’s dive into it.
Just like the last article, I will be using Draftking Sportsbook odds for this exercise.
|AFC East||Win Total||Over||Under||My Prediction|
|New England Patriots||7.5||+110||-130||6|
|New York Jets||9.5||-130||+110||8|
The AFC East is one of those divisions that can be hard to predict. Like the NFC North, there are more unknowns than your average division. Can Aaron Rodgers still play the guitar after an off-year in Green Bay? Will Tua stay healthy? Is the 2022 Patriots offense simply a blip that we can accredit to their former OC Matt Patricia? The definitive answer to these questions could ultimately swing any team from the bottom to the top of the division. The Bills have what any contender needs, an elite QB, great weapons, a solid defense, and competent management. It’s their division to lose, and no crowing about Tua’s accuracy will change my mind. The Jets were a QB short of contention last year, and boy did they address that need. That said, Aaron Rodgers’ stats last year were those of a veteran in decline, not a team savior. The Dolphins have probably had the best offseason in the East unless the Bills go out and land Nuke Hopkins. Pending the durability of one Mr. Tua Tagovailoa, fresh out of his judo falling lessons, I don’t see them declining.
The Money Pick – Patriots Under 7.5 Wins
One constant here is a sub-par team coming out of New England. The Patriots might have increased the number of coaches named “Bill”, but they haven’t done enough to take on the 2nd hardest strength of schedule in the league. Mac Jones has taken a step backward and I truly believe you can put that squarely on Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. Otherwise known as the What Were You Thinking dream team. It will take time, and games, to undo the damage that happened last year. I smell a potential quarterback controversy coming if his performance isn’t up to scratch, and I’d expect some Bailey Zappe chants out of the Gillette Stadium crowd by week 5. That’s all before mentioning they sent Jakobi Meyers packing only to replace him with a scarily similar player in JuJu Smith-Schuster. The days of the Patriots dynasty are far off in the rearview. But if they are in the rearview now, I would expect them to disappear altogether by Halloween.
|AFC North||Win Total||Over||Under||My Prediction|
The North is back, maybe! Deshaun Watson’s performance with a full offseason is going to define if the Browns return to the punching bag of the NFL, call it the biased opinion of someone who doesn’t like Mr. Watson, but everything he put on tape last year screams “I don’t have it anymore”. If he returns to even 80% of his former glory though, watch out. For that reason, I wouldn’t be betting on the Browns until they are a known factor. The Ravens have locked in Lamar. The contract drama is finally behind us, but that doesn’t spell success. I refuse to get excited about the arrival of OBJ, you’ll have to forgive me if I don’t jump for joy over a 30-year-old receiver coming off his second ACL injury, who hasn’t played in a year and hasn’t had an 1100-yard season since 2016. Their wideout room got a nice boost in Zay Flowers but I don’t see a standout WR1 in that group save for a breakout season by Rashod Bateman.
The Money Pick – Steelers Over 8.5 Wins or Bengals Over 11.5 Wins
I know, I know. It’s a cop-out to pick two teams here but I genuinely couldn’t decide. The Steelers have reinforced their lines to become the Steelers of old, winning in the trenches. In a bad/transition year last season, they still hit 8 wins. Pickett’s draft pedigree undersold how well he played. Fun fact, he actually got some votes for OROY. If Mike Tomlin didn’t get a losing season last year, he never will. As for the Bengals, they have everything they had and added a Pro Bowl tackle to the line in Orlando Brown Jr. Joe Burrow has historically had to watch his own blindside and still is the second-best QB in the league. Watch out when he’s got some time in the pocket. Even if their win total was 12.5 I’d be hitting the over all day.
|AFC West||Win Total||Over||Under||My Prediction|
|Kansas City Chiefs||11.5||-140||+120||13|
|Los Angeles Chargers||9.5||-110||-110||10|
|Las Vegas Raiders||7.5||+130||-150||6|
I’ll kick this one off with an educated guess, I’m going 9 wins with the Broncos. Why you ask? Simply because if you watched Russell Wilson last year, you saw signs that the old Rus is alive somewhere deep, deep… deep down inside. Sean Peyton may be one of the very few men I would trust to bring that back out and undo the Nathaniel Hackett effect.
I got to see Russell Wilson and the #broncos for the first time under Sean Payton. What stood out? Two main things. The OL and Wilson’s physical appearance. Both could help Wilson in year two in Denver. My report on @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/5bb6QxRRRg
— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) May 26, 2023
The Chargers have high expectations, as always with young gunslinger Justin Herbert. Brandon Staley is on a very hot seat and if he can’t deliver something more than an unceremonious exit in the wild-card round this year, he’s toast. Hopefully, he’s learned from the inconceivable move of playing all the starters in a meaningless game, ending in injuries. I’m going the over but it is a tough one. The Las Vegas Raiders fresh from replacing Derek Carr with
more handsome Derek Carr Jimmy Garoppolo are already embroiled in questions. Given his injury history, add now that he couldn’t pass the physical before joining the team and had his contract restructured because of it. Is this the guy? I vote no but I’ve always been low on Jimmy. If Brandon Staley has a hot seat, it must seem like an ice cube compared to Josh McDaniels. One way or another the AFC West is going to have new coaching in 2024, the question is who? The Raiders have a tough schedule, a quarterback made of wet tissues, and an openly unhappy, albeit elite, WR1. As someone who loves Davante Adams I hope I’m wrong here, but it’s looking like a long year for Raiders fans.
The Money Pick – Cheifs Over 11.5 Wins
12, 12, 14, 12, 14. Those are games won by the Chiefs since 2018. Also known as the year Patrick Mahomes became their starter. Betting against Mahomes is the equivalent of liquidating your assets to purchase lottery tickets… sure it could work out, but it very likely won’t. I don’t have much else to say other than get on this bet, before the Chiefs land DeAndre Hopkins and become even more feared than they already are. I don’t think 2023 is the year the Chiefs decide to win less than 12.
|AFC South||Win Total||Over||Under||My Prediction|
This brings us finally to the AFC South. I will openly admit when my predictions are sometimes simply projections of what I want to happen. I want Anthony Richardson to enter the NFL and light up the league in a way we haven’t seen since Lamar’s MVP season. 8 would be a good result for the Colts and their first year QB, 9 would be great, 10 would be my fever dream. The Jaguars, have a nuclear weapon in their midst and his name is Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence’s second year left the Urban Meyer dumpster fire in his dust, the only way is up for Jacksonville and given their division, it’s theirs for the losing. Tennessee should have shipped Henry and Tannehill out of the building, and rebuilt. They haven’t, the result is regressing veterans and questionable coaching. I can’t see them improving, or even matching their 7 – 10 performance of 2022.
The Money Pick – Texans Over 6.5 Wins
The Texans did a lot this off-season, a fancy new Head Coach, and some great draft picks, but a questionable move in sending their 2024 first-rounder away. To do that, they have to believe they have something going on here. And frankly, so do I. They got their QB1, they got some premium draft talent and they have a coach who I truly believe in. 6.5 is pure disrespect and I think we should collectively make the oddsmakers pay, literally.
And there you have it folks, that’s a wrap on the entire NFL Win Totals. Happy betting, if the vast majority of my predictions are correct you can expect a follow-up article with an insufferable level of gloating. If however, they are incorrect, you can expect to see this article banished to the far reaches of the archives while I claim temporary insanity.
Adrian was born, raised, and lives across the other side of the planet in Australia – but that hasn’t stopped him from being a lifelong Packers fan and sports betting enthusiast. A podcast host, writer, and all-round attention-seeking NFL analyst, Adrian is always looking to bring deep-dive analysis to the fantasy world. This soon-to-be father is looking to make his mark in the world of NFL media so that he has the connections to eventually force the sport onto his son willingly or otherwise (we wish he were kidding about this)