NFL Draft Odds: The First Overall Pick
Who is Getting Picked First Overall?
Nothing is quite like the NFL Draft season, or as the kids these days call it, NFL #Draftszn. The only thing that can make it better is throwing around a friendly wager. Betting on American football is a trend that is likely to take off in the coming months. After the Supreme Court cleared the way for states to legalize sports betting last year, striking down a 1992 federal law that had prohibited most states from authorizing sports betting, it’s been a slow build towards getting sportsbooks in place state by state and allowing sports fans the chance to place bets on games again. But bringing back sports betting back also means bringing back the chance to bet on future odds and fun prop bet odds like the one I found the other day. Oddshark.com has an article showcasing some odds for the first overall pick in this year’s 2019 NFL Draft. The overall odds are listed below.
Is Bosa a lock to go number one overall to the Arizona Cardinals? Let’s dive in.
2019 NFL Draft Odds: The First Overall Pick: Which odds do you like the best??? pic.twitter.com/fFiNzYmtVn
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) February 27, 2019
Nick Bosa -175
The Cardinals were an awful team last year, but most of that stems from their offensive struggles. Arizona ranked 31st or 32nd in almost every statistical offensive category except for red scoring touchdown percentage. Their defense, on the other hand, was exceptional in terms of rushing the passer. They ranked third in the league in sacks per game (3.1) and second in sack percentage (8.83%). This pass-rush was led by Chandler Jones with 12 sacks. The only reason the defense did not perform well overall in terms of yards and points allowed was because of the Cardinals’ offense. They could not stay on the field. Arizona ranked 32nd in time of possession. It did not matter that the Cardinals defense ranked 5th highest in the most three and outs against opposing offenses because their offense would give them the ball right back. There’s an argument to be made that the Cardinals should not draft a defensive end with the first overall pick because it’s there offense that needs help. The odds history also favor a quarterback going first overall.
12 defensive ends have been taken number one overall in NFL history while 31 quarterbacks have also been taken in that spot. Dating back to Peyton Manning in 1998, 15 quarterbacks have been taken number one overall. Just four defensive ends have been taken during that timespan. There’s a strong chance you need to pivot off the Bosa odds onto a quarterback. Bosa also has injury concerns that Arizona could be worrisome towards. But perhaps the biggest reason is that the same quarterback that new head coach Kliff Kingsbury already said back in October he would definitely take with the number one overall pick is available!
Kyler Murray +300
Now, the only reason there’s any hesitation that the Cardinals won’t draft Murray is because of Josh Rosen. If Rosen was not there, Murray would be everybody’s lock to go to Arizona. But things can change during the draft process and Kingsbury cannot afford to start his head coaching career with the wrong quarterback. If he finds that Rosen can’t be his guy he needs to take the initiative and make sure they draft Murray. If he truly believes that Murray has the potential to be a top-ten quarterback then he needs to convince the entire Cardinals organization this is the direction they must go.
Remember he is an offensive-driven head coach so he needs to address offense in this draft. That could be done in a multitude of ways; most notably by trading down. And not just trading down, but rather allowing another team to trade up for their future franchise quarterback Dwayne Haskins from Ohio Stae. Haskins at +1200 are the odds you want.
Dwayne Haskins +1200
Some quarterback-needy team is going to fall in love with Haskins during this draft process. From consensus, he is the number one quarterback in this class. He has the prototypical size you want, he possesses an advanced football mind, and had a great season of production at Ohio State last season. He also has the chance to wow scouts at the NFL combine because he is deciding to throw. But if a quarterback goes to Arizona it will probably be Murray. But again, who says Arizona necessarily is going to have the number one overall pick come draft day?
In the past when teams have traded up to the top or near the top of the draft, it has almost always been to target the quarterback position. In 2016, the Rams traded up to select Jared Goff with the number one pick. In the same draft, the Eagles traded up to select Carson Wentz with the second overall pick. A year later the Bears traded up in 2017 to select Mitchell Trubisky with the second overall pick. And just last year the Jets traded up to select Sam Darnold with the third overall pick. This also has not been just happening in the last few seasons either.
The Redskins in 2012 traded up to acquire Robert Griffin III with the second overall pick. The Atlanta Falcons traded up in 2001 to acquire Michael Vick with the number one overall pick. Just realize the theme here is that teams are willing to move up and pay high capital to get their quarterback. With the Cardinals claiming that Josh Rosen is their guy, that number one pick will be a massive target for a quarterback-needy team.
The Remaining Field
For the other bets, just two defensive tackles have ever been taken number one overall in NFL history, making players like Quinnen Williams from Alabama and Ed Olivier from Houston odds I am avoiding. As a total dart-throw for the highest return, linebacker Josh Allen from Kentucky is also a very interesting bet. Though on paper, Bosa appears to be the better prospect, perhaps the Cardinals may find they like Allen more and select him with the number one overall pick.
My three best bets for the 2019 first overall pick:
- Quarterback Dwayne Haskins +1200
- Quarterback Kyler Murray +300
- Linebacker Josh Allen +1400