NFL Division Odds 2018
We’ve finally reached the stage of the year where sportsbooks can get a grasp on how they feel the upcoming 2018 NFL season will go down.
As we all know, winning your division is crucial in the NFL with six of your 16 games against three divisional opponents. Now granted, these divisional odds will change with the NFL Draft on April 26th through 28th and could even change after the NFL releases the 2018 season schedule. But nevertheless, it’s interesting to see how an Online Casino views the upcoming season.
|Odds to Win AFC East|
|New England Patriots||-500|
|New York Jets||800|
|Odds to Win AFC North|
|Odds to Win AFC South|
|Odds to Win AFC West|
|Kansas City Chiefs||450|
|Los Angeles Chargers||150|
|Odds to Win NFC East|
|New York Giants||450|
|Odds to Win NFC North|
|Green Bay Packers||140|
|Odds to Win NFC South|
|New Orleans Saints||175|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||1000|
|Odds to Win NFC West|
|Los Angeles Rams||140|
|San Francisco 49ers||150|
What Do These Numbers Mean?
The best way to wrap your head around these odds is to think in units of $100. So betting on the Green Bay Packers to win the NFC North would win you $140 if you placed $100 on them. But for the Eagles (-150), Steelers (-250) and Patriots (-500) the reserve would be the case to win $100. For you to bet on the Eagles you would need to bet $150 to win $100. Of course, you can wager whatever amount you want, but I find this is the easiest way to explain these odds to someone who doesn’t bet on sports.
In terms of actual odds of the outcome, every team has a one in four chance to win their division. So when you see teams like the Bengals, Bears, and Bucs all at 10 to 1, you have to be optimistic as they are all capable of being a surprise team in 2018. Upsets do happen for division winners each season, however, they are usually in divisions that are very competitive. In the past few years, the NFC has usually seen the most yearly change with maybe the exception of the Seahawks.
Last Years Division Odds and Winners (As of June 17th, 2017)
- Patriots -700 (Ranked 1st to win the division)
- Steelers -140 (Ranked 1st to win the division)
- Chiefs +180 (Tied for 3rd to win the division)
- Jaguars +580 (Ranked 4th to win the division)
- Eagles +300 (Ranked 3rd to win the division)
- Vikings +250 (Ranked 2nd to win the division)
- Saints +300 (Tied for 3rd to win the division)
- Rams +1600 (Ranked 4th to win the division)
Just look at that potential payout for the Rams! 16 to 1 odds to win the NFC West. I remember talking about Jared Goff and his fantasy football potential last season after Sammy Watkins was traded there and I was literally called an “F-king Idiot” on a Reddit. The reason why the NFL is so popular is it doesn’t take a decade to rebuild your franchise… unless you’re the Browns. However, people also have short memories. For example, do you remember the Texans winning the AFC South four out of six seasons between 2011 and 2016? Or the Broncos winning their division five years in a row from 2011 to 2015? Good teams remain good and it’s hard to spot a spoiler.
The one bet I like, if I were to make one, is the Chiefs at 4.5 to 1. I think Patrick Mahomes will make some mistakes in his first starting gig but offers way more upside than Alex Smith. I also think the passing game takes a huge step forward this season with Mahomes cannon for an arm. The Chiefs will lean heavily on Kareem Hunt and it’s great defense, they are in my opinion in a great spot to win their division. My Pick: Chiefs
If I were to try and spot this year’s Jacksonville Jaguars surprise team, I think I would pick the Chicago Bears. The Bears have upgraded their offense, overhauled their coaching staff with a more modern analytical minded approach and have a young quarterback ready to take a big step after a much-needed rookie learning exereince. Long Shot Pick: Bears
Who do you like? Leave a comment below.