Week 15 Saturday 3 Game GPP Breakdown
Hey all and welcome to the special Saturday 3 game slate article!
You just know that the NFL salivates at their opportunity to benefit from the college schedule and employ some Saturday games in December. This is a nice ancillary benefit for the DFS and betting sites, and of course us lowly analyst and article writers. In any event, I’ll be attempting to dodge demands from Natasha and start my holiday vacation off the right way by watching some football and making some DFS money, so let’s get into the 3 game Saturday slate. In case you’re concerned, my regular Sunday article will be coming as well later.
I’m not going to have specific numbers for ownership on the 3 games slate, but it’s not going to take a genius to figure out where the majority of DFS players are going to gravitate. If we look back to the most recent 2 game Monday night slate, we’ll see the Tyreek Hill came in with 90% ownership. If you faded him, you likely made money as he sat out for awhile with as a precaution from an injury and ultimately did not come close to paying off his salary. This is but another lesson about the potential rewards of fading mega chalk.
Chalk Plays (in no particular order)
- Russell Wilson – Matchup plus a winning team over the last month and a half
- Jared Goff – Highest scoring offense and at home in a dome
- Jake Browning – A new DFS darling, good offense, cheap. These 3 QBs should make up the bulk of ownership
- Detroit RBs – Good offense and best RB matchup on the slate
- Jaylen Warren – Good matchup, cheap price, running offense, generally liked due to “newness”
- Zach Moss – Despite multiple disappointments, he’s got the backfield to himself against a team that has been run on lately
- Ja’Marr Chase – Best WR on slate who has proven to work with new QB (JJ has yet to prove that)
- Courtland Sutton – Catches a TD every week and faces an offense bleeding points to WRs
- Sam LaPorta – One of the best TE matchups of the week
- TJ Hockenson – The best TE matchup of the week, and if Mullens starts, will likely get more targets
- Bengals DST – Best perceived matchup on the slate
- Gardner Minshew – His gunslinging nature and cheaper cost may cause folks to move to him on Saturday. Bailey Zappe just threw on this team.
- Michael Pittman – Tough matchup, but a great talent and preferred target of Minshew
- Joe Mixon and Chase Brown – Both should attract ownership considering recent usage despite less than ideal matchup
- Tee Higgins – Probably should have had a TD in each of last 2 games
- Amon-Ra – Name recognition alone should garner ownership despite RB and TE being the better matchups
- Justin Jefferson – Had a lackluster first game back, is Questionable, but it’s Justin Jefferson and fully participated in Thursday’s practice
- Diontae Johnson – Appears to be Mitch’s favorite target but is Questionable
- Tanner Hudson – Not as popular as other 2 TEs but is cheap, getting more usage, and caught a TD last week
- Najee Harris – He could be the higher scoring Pitt RB
Minnesota Vikings @ Cincinnati Bengals
- Spread: Bengals -3
- Total: O/U: 40.5
The current thesis for the success of Jake Browning is that he is in a good offense surrounded by a good cast of talented players. If that’s true, what’s the argument for Josh Dobbs and Nick Mullens? On this 3 game slate, the Bengals are the 2nd worst team against the QB position over the last month; that’s against names like Gardner Minshew, Trevor Lawrence, CJ Beathard, and Kenny Pickett too. Whoever starts for the Vikings will make for a potential contrarian option at QB.
TJ Hockenson has the most TE targets this season with 116. On Saturday he’ll get a Bengals team that surrenders the most yards and fantasy points per game to the position. The Bengals have been decent of late against the RB and WR spots, but Justin Jefferson is on another level. He didn’t practice on Wednesday as he is dealing with a new chest issue, but he went full on Thursday.
Jake Browning will likely attract ownership despite the Vikings being the best team against the QB position over the last 4 weeks. In fact, the Vikings have been rather good across the board recently. They haven’t exactly been facing powerhouses, but they have performed admirably as they’ve rallied around being down their 2 best offensive weapons. The Vikings make for a decent contrarian option at the DST spot on Saturday. I anticipate that Brian Flores will be blitzing heavily, which could force Browning into RB check downs,
Long story short, this game has the makings of a game that goes under the total. I may have some pieces, but I’m not expecting a shootout.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts
- Spread: Colts -1.5
- Total: O/U: 42
In the last month, the Colts have been hemorrhaging points to the RB position. Jaylen Warren has been the preferred play in fantasy circles, and Najee Harris was Questionable earlier in the week but has been a full participant at practice of late. The Steelers are going to want to run the ball, and the Colts can be run on. Both RBs should attract some ownership, but Warren should come in higher.
Mitch Trubisky is starting for the Steelers. The Colts have been good against QBs and WRs lately, but they have been giving up fantasy points to the TE spot, which makes Pat Freiermuth interesting at potential lower ownership. The Colts defense has scored 11 or more fantasy points in 4 of the last 5 games. I like them as a lower owned play for DFS.
The Steelers have been the best team in the NFL against the WR position in the last month, and they’ve been one of the best against QBs. I’d take the under in this game as well, and as such I will be playing limited pieces from it.
Denver Broncos @ Detroit Lions
- Spread: Lions -4.5
- Total: O/U: 48
Here is where the majority of ownership should fall on Saturday. On this 3 game slate, there is no team worse than Detroit against opposing QBs over the last 4 weeks. This will make the semi-mobile Russell Wilson a popular play on Saturday. Last week D.J. Moore had a day against this secondary, so it makes sense to go with the Bronco WR who keeps catching TDs. Courtland Sutton will see a good amount of CBs Cameron Sutton (no relation) and Jerry Jacobs. Sutton, wait C. Sutton, wait that doesn’t work either, Cameron Sutton, there we go, is Pro Football Focus’ 82nd-ranked CB and Jacobs comes in at 89. The Lio are 10th worst against WRs over the last 4 weeks.
The Lions have, however, been a stout unit against the RB position. As such, I am only interested in maybe one Denver RB with the hope that he might find the end zone.
Other than the TE spot, the Broncos defense has been much better across the board. This includes the RB position where they are top 10 over the last 4 weeks. Many could be sucked in by the bright green “32” next to David Montgomery’s and Jahmyr Gibbs’ names on DraftKings, but don’t be shocked if they don’t have ceiling games on Saturday.
Where am I going?
- Overall this has the makings for a rather disappointing slate of games. All 3 could be slow plodding uninteresting matchups.
- As such, a low-owned, low-priced QB could take it down.
- I’ll be eating LaPorta chalk.
- I may even go double TE to stack TJ with his QB.
- Courtland Sutton is tough to ignore.
- Justin Jefferson to hopefully get a little different.
- A Bengals RB or 2 will be in my lineups, though I’m wary of chasing.
Thanks for reading! Follow me on the website formerly known as Twitter @Borisnow00, and join the Discord for updates!
Matt, aka Boris, had a friend in his high school freshman English class once mistakenly call him that, and the nickname has somehow stuck ever since. He has been playing fantasy football since the early 2000s and Daily Fantasy Sports since 2015. Boris has been writing about DFS since 2020 and is excited to be a part of GridIron Experts. He has a wife (proving someone can stand him) and a daughter. Boris loves the beach, skiing, hockey, soccer, and football. He attempts to teach high school English, and aspires to make a ton of money in DFS. Follow him on Twitter @Borisnow00.