NFL Best Bets
Wildcard Weekend has arrived, and for reasons I assume are personal, the NFL scheduled it on my mother’s birthday. Sunday afternoon features the Bills vs the Jaguars and the 49ers vs the Eagles, which turns what should be a simple family visit into an ethical debate. As a good son, I obviously want to see my mom. As a football fan who’s waited all season for the playoffs, I also have questions. Is a Zoom call too impersonal, or does it show adaptability? She raised me. She’d understand, right? I can already feel my wife judging me as I write this. I’m just glad her birthday is in May, when the NFL can’t put me in this kind of position.
Four of the six games this weekend feature road favorites, and to me, that says less about parity and more about dilution. By expanding the playoff field, the NFL lets a few teams in each year that don’t really belong. If I were commissioner for a day, I’d remove two teams from the league, one from each conference, and go back to three divisions per conference to restore some meaning to the regular season. The Wildcard round shouldn’t include bad teams that survived a weak division, and the two best teams in each conference shouldn’t have to play just to prove they’re the best.
Okay, enough with my first-world problems. It’s still football, and it’s still great! Let’s get to the bets.
NFL BEST BETS
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
The Bears enter the Wild Card round as slight home underdogs, but I think this matchup is tighter than that. Chicago finished 11–6, went 6–2 at Soldier Field, and closed the season with one of the league’s more efficient scoring offenses. Caleb Williams has found a rhythm late in the year, and Ben Johnson’s run-first offense should work well in cold January conditions where games tend to slow down.
Green Bay enters on a four-game skid and is 3-6 against the spread on the road. The upside is obvious, but the week-to-week consistency hasn’t been there, especially heading into a third meeting between these teams in five weeks. That level of familiarity favors Chicago’s staff and scheme. The Bears already beat Green Bay in overtime in Week 16, and even in the earlier loss, they moved the ball and forced red-zone stops, an issue that’s lingered for the Packers. Jordan Love is sharp when protected, but Chicago doesn’t need dominant pressure, just a few high-leverage stops or takeaways, something they’ve produced all season.
The books are treating this game as a coin flip, which makes Bears +1.5 a value side. Some even made Chicago a slight favorite, a sign of just how thin the gap is. If the Bears control the clock, protect Williams, and force one red-zone mistake, they’re in a good position to cover and win.
Pick: Bears +1.5
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
At first glance, this number made me stop and check the standings. San Francisco finished 12–5, has the better point differential, and somehow is catching 5.5 points in Philadelphia. The 49ers are 7–2 on the road this season (including 7-2 ATS), still built around an elite core with Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle, and they’re more than capable of controlling tempo even in a tough road environment.
Purdy has been efficient on the road, and the 49ers have enough matchup flexibility to trade scores even if the Eagles control stretches of play. Last year’s Super Bowl champions clearest path runs through Saquon Barkley and a run-heavy approach against a San Francisco defense that’s been vulnerable on the ground. The latest NFL news update hints that RT Lane Johnson could return for this game, which would increase the Eagles’ chances of running the ball. On defense, Philly will need to limit red zone opportunities for a 49ers team that finished fifth in Red Zone TD%.
I can see Philadelphia leaning on its defense and home crowd to grind out a win, but I think this is the type of game that is settled by a field goal or less.
Pick: 49ers +5.5
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
The Patriots closed the regular season on a 13–1 run, finished 14–3, and ranked second in the league in scoring. Drake Maye’s growth has been steady and tangible. He finished top-five in both yards and touchdowns, and the offense mixes explosive plays with a solid run game
The Chargers arrive at 11–6, but they’ve shown a lot of inconsistency. They come in on a two-game losing streak and their offensive line is beat up. Justin Herbert always carries upside, but this matchup limits it. New England’s defense ranks top-10 in EPA allowed and is built to force long drives rather than give up quick strikes. Add in cold January conditions and a cross-country trip, and this becomes a tough environment for a Chargers team that’s been uneven on the road.
I think the Patriots are legit. If New England can protect Maye, stay balanced, and let the defense control field position, they’ll cover this spread easily.
Pick: Patriots -3.5
