NFL Best Bets
Halloween is this week, and it’s always been one of my favorite holidays. Every year, I dress up as my cartoon namesake, Doug. Mostly because it makes me laugh, but also because it’s a very easy costume, and not far off from my usual apparel.
Speaking of costumes, the Steelers’ throwback jerseys on Sunday Night Football were awful. I’d give them rocks if they showed up at my house trick-or-treating.
That reminded me of my favorite Halloween tradition, watching It’s the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown. Linus waits all night in the pumpkin patch, convinced the Great Pumpkin will appear because he believes so sincerely. I imagine that’s how Cowboys fans feel every year, believing this is finally the season the Lombardi Trophy will be theirs again, only to be left disappointed once more.
Our Best Bets were a frightful 1-2 last week, with only the Miami Dolphins coming through for us. As we make our way through this rough patch, you can find more picks from our talented Gridiron Experts writers. Lawrence Iacona is on a legendary run right now, so make sure to check out his selections.
Most casual bettors focus on who to bet, but the pros focus just as much on when. Lookahead lines and early-week numbers are often where the value lives. By Friday, sharp money and injury reports have usually shaped the market, leaving fewer soft spots to exploit. By Sunday, it’s almost impossible to gain an edge. The earlier you can grab a good number, the better your chances of beating it.
However, even this late in the week, there’s still some value to be found, and that’s exactly what I see in this week’s Best Bets.
NFL BEST BETS
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
The line opened at Colts -2.5 and was quickly bet to -3, an early sign that sharp money respected Indianapolis more than the public did. It makes sense. The Colts are the more balanced, better-coached team right now, while the Steelers remain a name-brand roster living on reputation.
Daniel Jones has found new life under Shane Steichen. The Colts have leaned into quick reads, RPO concepts, and heavy play-action, allowing Jones to play within structure instead of forcing heroics. Behind one of the league’s best run-blocking units, he’s top-12 in QBR and rarely under duress. Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss give Indianapolis real balance, and their rushing attack ranks top-10 by DVOA.
Aaron Rodgers, meanwhile, has been inconsistent under pressure and reluctant to push the ball downfield, leaving Pittsburgh’s offense stagnant in the red zone and near the bottom of the league in yards per play. The Steelers’ run game hasn’t helped much either, averaging under 3.6 yards per carry.
Defensively, the Colts are middle-tier in total yardage but top-10 in pressure rate and turnovers forced. The Steelers still have T.J. Watt, yet their overall metrics tell a different story: 26th in success rate allowed and particularly vulnerable to the run, which is exactly how Indianapolis wants to play.
Situationally, the Colts are stronger on third downs and in the red zone, finishing drives with touchdowns instead of field goals. They have also dominated weaker teams, covering in all five games against opponents with losing records.
This comes down to modern efficiency versus aging pedigree. Steichen has molded a flexible offense that can win multiple ways, while Pittsburgh remains stuck in a conservative, predictable scheme. If the Colts establish the run early and protect the ball, they should control the tempo and grind out a comfortable win.
Pick: Colts -3
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Detroit’s offense has been one of the most balanced units in football. Jared Goff has the benefit of a healthy offensive line, a reliable run game, and a creative play-caller who keeps defenses guessing. The Lions rank near the top of the league in both rushing and passing efficiency, and their versatility makes them hard to game-plan for. Coming off a bye week, they should be sharp and prepared to attack a Minnesota defense that’s been giving up a ton of yards and points for a month.
The Vikings have lost three of their last four and are coming off a blowout loss to the Chargers. Their offensive line has struggled badly in pass protection, allowing 28 sacks already. That’s a dangerous weakness against a Detroit front that thrives on pressure. The Lions’ defense has feasted on teams that can’t block consistently, and Minnesota fits that mold perfectly.
Motivation is also on Detroit’s side. Divisional games carry extra weight, and the Lions know how much this one matters for playoff seeding and momentum. Dan Campbell’s group has developed a habit of putting away opponents they’re supposed to beat, and the numbers reflect it.
Big spreads always carry risk, but this one feels fair. Detroit’s offense has too many ways to score, and Minnesota’s protection issues and quarterback situation make it hard to see a back-and-forth battle developing. If the Lions get an early lead, they have the balance to close it out comfortably.
Pick: Lions -8.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
The Chiefs have quietly regained their rhythm after a sluggish start to the season. Over their last five games, they’ve averaged more than 415 yards and 31 points per game while converting nearly 77 percent of their red-zone trips into touchdowns. Buffalo has slipped to the bottom third of the league in defensive DVOA and is giving up over 5.4 yards per play, a dangerous combination against Patrick Mahomes and an offense that’s back to full strength.
Mahomes has been spreading the ball around with confidence again, aided by the return of Rashee Rice. Kansas City’s drive success rate sits above 70 percent, and they’re creating explosive plays on more than 14 percent of possessions. The Chiefs sustain drives, protect the football, and finish when they reach scoring range.
Defensively, the gap between these two teams is narrower than many think. Kansas City ranks slightly ahead of Buffalo in opponent passer rating and continues to get strong secondary play from Trent McDuffie and company. Buffalo’s defensive front can still generate pressure, but their coverage breakdowns have grown more frequent in recent weeks.
This game carries playoff implications, and that’s typically when the Chiefs’ experience shows. Andy Reid and Mahomes have consistently handled big-stage environments, and the market clearly respects them by installing Kansas City as a road favorite.
Buffalo has had success against Kansas City in regular-season meetings, and playing in Orchard Park adds volatility. But given the Chiefs’ improved offensive balance and slight defensive edge, this number feels justified.
Pick: Chiefs -1.5
