NFL Best Bets: Week 9
Hail Marys don’t just happen in the end zone; sometimes they come into play after the game, too. Last week, Bears cornerback Tyrique Stevenson learned that the hard way. Just as Commanders rookie Jayden Daniels launched a desperate Hail Mary, Stevenson was busy taunting Washington fans. But football fate had other plans, as he scrambled back into the play only to tip the ball straight to Noah Brown for the game-winner. Stevenson was likely saying a few actual Hail Marys later that night, making up for a bit too much sideline swagger.
His last-second slip-up cost me the win, too. I had the Bears covering the 2.5-point spread and felt good as they held a three-point lead until that miracle pass. So thanks, Tyrique, for the heartbreak. It looks like we’re both in need of a little penance this week.
With that rough finish, we ended the week at 1-2, bringing the season record to a solid 15-9, 60%. Not bad when you’re betting against the spread.
One thing I look at when making picks is a team’s ATS +/-, which shows the average amount of points that a team covers the spread by. Instead of just looking at cover percentage, ATS +/- shows by how much teams are exceeding, or falling short of, expectations. Teams with a high ATS +/- are regularly beating the spread and outperforming the Vegas odds.
On the other hand, teams with a low or negative ATS +/- struggle to meet expectations week after week and are generally overvalued by bettors. This week, I’m looking at a few high ATS +/- teams that have consistently covered with room to spare.
[the_ad id=’104521′]BEST BETS (Road Warrior Week)
Broncos at Ravens
The Broncos are 9-point underdogs against the Ravens in Week 9. Denver’s defense has been elite, ranking first in net yards per pass play allowed, first in yards per play defense, and third in red-zone defense. With Baltimore’s defensive ranking at 29th in opponent passer rating and 28th in net yards per pass, Denver’s offense, led by Bo Nix, should find some opportunities to move the ball, especially against a pass rush that struggles to get pressure. The Broncos also have an ATS +/- of +7.6, so they are consistently outperforming Vegas expectations.
Historically, the Ravens struggle as big favorites, going just 1-11-1 ATS when favored by a touchdown or more since 2021. They’ve also faltered in the fourth quarter, getting outscored 93-59 this season. With Denver ranking as one of the best fourth-quarter teams, outscoring opponents 7.4 to 4, this matchup plays to their strengths in closing out games. The Broncos covering the spread looks like the smarter play here.
Commanders at Giants
The Commanders are road favorites against the Giants this week. We noted last week that road favorites has done very well ATS this season. On top of that, Washington has a +9.4 ATS +/-, which is tops in the league. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has sparked this offense, which ranks third in scoring at 29.5 points per game. Last week, even while playing through a rib injury, Daniels put up 326 yards against a solid Bears defense.
The Giants, by contrast, are mired in challenges. Daniel Jones is just 3-7 ATS in his last 10 home games, and New York’s offense has managed only 31 points in four home losses. Missing key pieces on the offensive line, particularly left tackle Andrew Thomas, has left Jones vulnerable, and Washington’s pass rush, which pressured the Bears over 51% of the time, will be harassing Jones all day. Defensively, the Giants have allowed an NFL-worst 6.2 yards per carry over the past month.
Divisional matchups are usually tough, especially on the road, but these are two teams headed in different directions and I think the Commanders will win this one easily.
Lions at Packers
The Lions are another road favorite this week, heading into Green Bay as 2.5-point favorites. They’ve been one of the most reliable teams ATS this season, covering in six of seven games with a league-leading ATS +/- of +9.4. This team has been unstoppable on the road, going 10-2 ATS as road favorites since 2023 and averaging over 400 yards per game in both matchups against Green Bay last season. Even in a close loss to the Packers at home last year, Detroit outgained them with 464 total yards.
Green Bay’s offensive inconsistency, compounded by Jordan Love’s lingering injuries, makes it tough for them to keep up. The Packers have struggled to find rhythm and could be without Jordan Love. Detroit’s defense, ranked fifth in yards per point, should be able to contain Green Bay’s offense.
Jared Goff, despite playing his first outdoor game of the season, has been effective against Green Bay, throwing multiple touchdowns in four of his last six games against them. Behind Detroit’s efficient offensive line and balanced run game, Goff and company should continue their dominance.
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