NFL Best Bets: Week 8
One of the best things about NFL’s overseas games is football with breakfast on the East Coast. That 9:30 AM kickoff is a rare and glorified treat for those of us in the eastern time zone. But just as I was settling in for the early game between the Jaguars and Patriots, my wife hit me with a surprise 10 AM brunch reservation. Her favorite restaurant was rolling out their new fall brunch menu, which to her is basically the Super Bowl. So while I had my heart set on a full morning of football, instead I spent it watching her savor southern omelets with pimento cheese and sipping mimosas. Definitely not the game plan I had in mind.
At any rate, we got back to our winning ways last week, going 2-1, pushing the season total to 14-7, which is an impressive winning percentage against the spread. My pick for the Cardinals paid off as they edged out the Chargers 17-15 and the Raiders also delivered, covering the spread against the Rams. Unfortunately, my Green Bay pick fell just short as they won by only 2 points, failing to cover the 2.5-point spread against Houston.
When it comes to picking against the spread, following trends can be a game-changer. This season, away teams have been covering 59.8% of the time with a 61-41-4 record. But what really stands out is how dominant away favorites have been, hitting 71.4% ATS (25-10-2). With numbers like that, it’s hard to ignore. So, I’ve zeroed in on two road favorites for my best bets this week, and another road team who isn’t favored, but might be playing a preseason powerhouse at just the right time.
See all our NFL Picks Here.
[the_ad id=’104525′]
BEST BETS
Falcons -2.5 at Buccaneers
Atlanta heads to Tampa Bay in a divisional matchup. Both teams are coming off disappointing losses in Week 7, but the Falcons have a key advantage: health. The Buccaneers were dealt a huge blow on Monday night, losing not only the game to the Ravens but also their top two wide receivers, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, to injury. Tampa Bay’s offense will have a tough time recovering from that, especially on a short week.
Atlanta, despite a lackluster performance against Seattle, is in a much better position to bounce back. Kirk Cousins, who threw for 509 yards in their earlier 36-30 victory over the Buccaneers in Week 5, should have a strong game again, especially with Tampa’s secondary showing cracks. Plus, with Bijan Robinson ready to exploit Tampa’s 27th-ranked run defense (in terms of EPA), Atlanta’s offense could have a big day.
Tampa Bay’s ground game won’t be enough to offset the loss of Evans and Godwin, and the Falcons’ defense, which forced turnovers and stifled the Buccaneers in their last matchup, should have the upper hand here. I’m sticking with the road favorite and picking Atlanta to cover.
Bears -2.5 at Commanders
I’m backing the Chicago Bears to cover the -2.5 spread against the Washington Commanders. While Chicago may be a “fraudulent” 4-2, having beaten teams with a combined record of 6-20, they’ve been playing solid football. Their defense has flown under the radar, ranking in the top four in defensive EPA per play, and it will be a big challenge for whoever is under center for Washington.
Speaking of quarterbacks, the uncertainty around Jayden Daniels is a key factor here. Daniels came out of Washington’s blowout win over Carolina with a rib injury, and even though Marcus Mariota looked sharp in relief, it’s hard to imagine him repeating that performance against this Bears defense. Mariota was efficient in Week 7, but that was against one of the league’s worst defenses. Chicago’s defense, meanwhile, has allowed just 16 points per game dating back to last season, and they’ve had two weeks to prepare, coming off a bye.
On offense, Caleb Williams is coming into his own, and the Bears have found a spark in their running game. D’Andre Swift is averaging nearly five yards per carry over his last three games, and with Washington’s rush defense ranking 27th in EPA, Swift could be primed for a big day.
The big question mark is Daniels’ availability. If he’s out, the edge tilts heavily in Chicago’s favor. Even if he plays, the Bears’ defense is equipped to cause problems, and the offense should be able to move the ball well against Washington’s struggling defense. This game feels like a comfortable cover for the Bears.
Cowboys +4.5 at 49ers
The Dallas Cowboys are four point underdogs on the road against the San Francisco 49ers. The Cowboys, fresh off a bye week, are expected to get pass rusher Micah Parsons and cornerback DaRon Bland back on defense. That’s crucial, as San Francisco’s offense has been hit hard by injuries, with Brandon Aiyuk already out for the season and both Deebo Samuel and George Kittle dealing with health issues. The 49ers’ once-potent offense is now depleted, and with Christian McCaffrey still sidelined, they’ll need to rely heavily on their run game.
The Cowboys’ defense, which is allowing just 70.3 rushing yards per game on the road (second-best in the league), should be able to contain San Francisco’s rushing attack, forcing Brock Purdy into more difficult passing situations. Purdy has struggled when forced to push the ball downfield, and without his top receivers, the 49ers’ offense could stall against a rested Dallas defense.
Historically, the 49ers have had the Cowboys’ number, winning their last three matchups while holding Dallas to just 13 points per game. But with San Francisco dealing with a rash of injuries and Dallas healthy and motivated after an embarrassing 40-point loss to Detroit before the bye, the Cowboys should be able to keep this game close, if not win outright. The spread has moved in Dallas’ favor, and I like them to cover in what feels like a game where the 49ers’ depth will be tested more than ever.
[the_ad id=’104521′]
