NFL Picks

NFL Best Bets: Week 7

Brock Purdy

NFL Best Bets

We pulled out another winning week in Week 6, going 2-1 in our best bets and bringing the season total to 11-7-1, 60.5%. As you only need to win 52.5% of the time to make a profit, that’s a pretty good mark. Last season, the best bets won at a 60% rate over the course of the entire season, so it’s nice to see we’re consistently winning at a profitable rate. 

As the weeks progress, trends start to stabilize, and one that sticks out the most is away team favorites winning at a 58.3% rate. I’m personally going to continue to hammer those games until I see any evidence of a course correction by the oddsmakers. 

This week, there are six road favorites, and I think all six are good bets to cover. In fact, my model only has two home teams covering the spread and both are favorites. (Seahawks and Chiefs.) As always, if you want to see all the picks from my betting model, you can see them for free on Sunday mornings on my X profile. You can also see if I made any last-minute changes to my picks here

Betting Model

Speaking of my betting model, I’ve wagered one unit on the spread, total, and moneyline to see where it’s most effective. I also track its record for straight up picks. Here are the results through six weeks:

  • Straight Up: 61-26, 70.1%
  • Spread: 52-35-3, 59.8%, ROI: 13.9%
  • Over/Under: 50-40-2, 55.6%, ROI: 6.3%
  • Moneyline: 50-41, 54.9%, ROI: 6.4%

 

Week 7 Best Bets

Lions +3 at Ravens

The Detroit Lions enter as three-point road underdogs. This is a little surprising, considering Detroit’s performance so far this year. They’re 3-0 on the road and have better stats on both sides of the ball. 

The Lions have a well-rounded offense, led by Jared Goff, whose passing game has been far more impressive than Lamar Jackson’s. Detroit’s pass-catchers, anchored by Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds, is far superior to the Raven’s receivers. The Lions rank fourth in points per game and third in yards per game, thanks to a balanced offense that is equally adept at both passing and rushing. While David Montgomery’s absence could have been a concern, rookie Jahmyr Gibbs is well-poised to fill the void.

On the other hand, the Ravens are heavily reliant on their rushing game, which ranks fifth in the NFL in rushing. Their passing game, however, is just 24th in passing yards per game. Detroit has the top-ranked run defense in the league and if they can shut down the Ravens run game, Baltimore will have a tough time scoring points. 

Defensively, both teams are strong. The Ravens are fourth in points allowed per game and second in yards allowed per game, yet the Lions aren’t far behind, ranking ninth and seventh, respectively. Baltimore could experience some sluggishness after traveling back from London, while the Lions have been on a roll, winning four straight games by at least two scores. I think the line on this game should be even, or Ravens -1, at best. I’m taking Detroit +3 all day. 

Packers -1 at Broncos

The Packers are coming off a bye following their 17-13 loss to the Raiders. The spotlight is on quarterback Jordan Love as he will try to shake off his three-interception performance in that game. The Broncos defense ranks 32nd in points allowed per game, so this is a favorable matchup for Love. Aaron Jones should be good to go this week, which is a big plus for Green Bay, considering the Broncos are giving up the most rushing yards in the league. 

While the Packers defense has been better than Denver’s, they’re still mediocre, at best. They have a tough time defending against the run and are allowing a fifth-worst 1.3 rushing touchdowns per games over their last three games. If the Broncos can establish their run game early, Russell Wilson is capable of creating some big plays downfield. 

Ultimately, I don’t think Denver will be able to keep up on the scoreboard. They are a team in disarray and I’m not sure they have the motivation to win games right now. I’m taking the road favorite in this one.

49ers -6.5 at Vikings

Brock Purdy finally lost a game as a starter in the NFL, but he drove the team downfield in the closing moments of the game to give them a shot to win. I’m part of the minority that believes Purdy is a quality quarterback and not just a benefactor of Mike Shanahan’s offensive system. Even if Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel are unable to play, I’m on the San Francisco side in this matchup. I think they’re best team in the league and they will use this as a statement game. 

The Vikings are not as bad as their record, but they’re also not much better. Kirk Cousins and the offense have not been very good this season and their defense is among the worst in the league. I don’t think they will have an answer for the 49ers defense and I don’t think they will be able to stop them on offense. I think San Francisco covers this spread easily. 

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

To Top