NFL Best Bets for Week 7
We continued our incredible run with another 3-0 week, bringing our Best Bets overall record to 14-2 this year! That’s 87.5% accuracy against the spread. Not bad when you consider the public is a dismal 37% this season. While we can’t expect to continue that rate of success, I’ll keep researching every angle to find games that give us an edge. Here are my best bets this week.
See all of the Gridiron Experts Staff Picks for Week 7 here.
Cleveland Browns +6.5 at Baltimore Ravens
Let me start by saying, I believe the Ravens will win this game. The Browns have been pretty awful the last three weeks, losing to the Falcons, Chargers and Patriots by an average of 9.3 points while giving up 30 points a game. But, Cleveland has been scoring points as well and two of those losses were by three points or less. On the other hand, Baltimore hasn’t scored more than 20 points the last three games. The Ravens have the fifth-highest implied point total of the week at 25, but they’ve only gone over their total twice this year. The Browns have hit the Over in five out of six games and their implied total is only 19.5, a number they’ve hit in every game before last week. Cleveland has the best rushing offense in the league and they should have success running the ball against a Baltimore defense that is ranked 24th in Rush DVOA. The key to the game for the Browns will be containing Lamar Jackson, who trails only Patrick Mahomes in passing touchdown rate, and is fifth overall in rushing yards. However, Jackson has struggled in the 4th quarter of games this year, throwing four interceptions while the Ravens have blown double-digit leads late in the game twice. The Ravens are clearly the better team, but the Browns offense should be able to keep this game close.
New York Giants +3 at Jacksonville Jaguars
The 5-1 Giants head to Jacksonville to take on the 2-4 Jaguars. This is a surprising line for a lot of people, but it hasn’t moved, Jacksonville is clearly better than their record suggests and the Giants have been called by some the worst 5-1 team ever. That might be a bit hyperbolic, but certainly, the Giants have overperformed, which is a credit to Head Coach Brian Daboll and his staff. New York is coming off big wins against the Packers and Ravens the last two weeks. Conversely, the Jaguars have lost three in a row after a promising 2-1 start. The Giants strength is their running game. They’re averaging five yards per rush, but Jacksonville is giving up the third-fewest rushing yards per game. The difference is Saquon Barkley who rushed for 164 yards against Tennessee, ranked third in Rush DVOA. The Jags will also look to run the ball. Travis Etienne and James Robinson should both have solid games. The outcome will come down to the quarterback play. Trevor Lawrence is an ascending talent, but will have a tough time against the Giants pass defense. I think Lawrence will probably be held under 200 yards passing for the third time in his last four games and the Giants will beat the spread, if not win outright.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10.5 over Carolina Panthers
This is a dangerous pick for me, personally. I live in North Carolina and I’ll be at the Panthers game with Panthers fans all around me. Heck, I’ll be riding with Panthers fans, but I’m not going to say a word about this pick. I’ll curse and shake my head at every Tom Brady touchdown pass, but inside, my heart will be secretly filled with joy. We all know Carolina is a train wreck, even more so with PJ Walker behind center. He literally had negative air yards against the Rams. The Panthers have the lowest team total of the week at 14.5, and if I were a betting man, I would bet the under. This line is as low as it is because Tampa Bay was a 10-point favorite against the Steelers and lost. I don’t think that’s going to happen twice in a row. The Bucs are fourth in Defense DVOA and will be defending against the worst offense in the league. Tampa could probably win this game without ever taking an offensive snap. Unfortunately for Carolina, the Bucs will get the ball and should have their way on offense. The game script sets up nicely for Leonard Fournette and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rachaad White get plenty of opportunities if this game gets out of hand. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are healthy, Tom Brady is angry and I just remembered I AM a betting man. It might be a long ride home for me Sunday, but I’m taking Tampa Bay and the points anyway.
Doug Burrell finished 2022 as Fantasy Nerd’s Most Accurate Expert in NFL Picks and Tallysight’s #1 ranked expert Against the Spread Expert out of 200+ experts. He is a veteran, a runner and an avid fantasy sports enthusiast since 1999. You can reach him on Twitter @dougwburrell.
Doug is a veteran, an avid runner, and works as a copywriter. He lives in North Carolina with his wife and three dogs. You can reach him on Twitter @dougwburrell.