NFL Best Bets: Week 5
We delivered another flawless 3-0 performance last week, bringing our season record to a solid 10-2 with four winning weeks to start the year. If you’ve been riding along, your wallet is likely enjoying the extra padding, thanks to the Ravens, Jaguars, and Colts, who all came through to cover the spread in Week 4.
Picking winners against the spread is no easy feat. Hitting 70% of bets in a single season is like trying to thread a needle while riding a rollercoaster—it takes a mix of analysis, intuition, and a bit of luck. So far, we’ve been on the right side of the ride, and the goal is to stay strapped in for another week.
Now that four weeks have passed, actionable trends are starting to emerge. Unsurprisingly, road underdogs are standing out as the best bets, covering over 58% of the time. I also like to track how the public is betting, as it can sometimes reveal an edge when there’s a difference between where the money is going versus where the bets are being placed. However, the public’s record has been dismal, winning just 40.2% of the time. Even when 75% or more of the public is backing a side, they’re only 5-8.
This week feels especially tight, as my model and the Vegas lines are aligning closely. When in doubt, though, I’ll stick with what’s been working: road underdogs. Let’s ride the trend and see if we can keep the streak alive.
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BEST BETS
Game: Panthers at Bears
The Carolina Panthers head into Week 5 as +4 underdogs against the Chicago Bears. I would have been hesitant if Bryce Young were still starting at QB, but Andy Dalton has injected new life into the offense. Dalton has thrown five touchdowns and just one interception, posting a 101.4 QB rating in his two starts. His experience has stabilized the offense, which is a big plus against a Bears defense that has struggled with consistency. Dalton’s ability to distribute the ball efficiently and avoid costly mistakes will keep the Panthers competitive.
The Panthers’ rushing attack also impressed last week, running for 155 yards against Cincinnati with Chuba Hubbard leading the way. This ability to control the clock will be key in limiting Chicago’s offensive opportunities. The Bears have allowed 4.5 yards per carry this season, so Carolina should have no problem finding success on the ground.
Chicago’s offense, led by Justin Fields, has shown flashes but remains inconsistent. Fields is still prone to mistakes, and the Panthers’ defense will look to create pressure and force errors. Public betting trends are heavily backing the Bears, but when the public piles on one side, there’s often value in betting the underdog. I’m inclined to take that value and bet on Carolina to cover.
Game: Cowboys at Steelers
The Dallas Cowboys enter Week 5 as +2.5 underdogs against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Dallas has struggled early this season, while Pittsburgh has surprised many with a 3-1 record. However, I’m not convinced the Steelers have enough offensive firepower to outpace the Cowboys.
Dak Prescott’s numbers have been strong, with 1,072 passing yards and six touchdowns through four games, ranking third in the league. Despite their struggles, Dallas remains a pass-heavy team with elite pass-catchers like CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson. Pittsburgh’s defense is known for its pass rush but has been less dominant this year. If Prescott can get the ball out quickly, the Cowboys should be able to move the ball through the air.
Defensively, the Cowboys have struggled against the run, but the Steelers are dealing with injuries in the backfield. Najee Harris has yet to rush for more than 70 yards in a game and is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry. If the Cowboys can shut down the run, they’ll force Pittsburgh into a one-dimensional game plan, which works in Dallas’ favor. The Cowboys have had extra time to prepare after playing on Thursday night, and they were 4-0 ATS last season when they had a rest advantage. With the line already accounting for injuries to Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, Dallas is in a good spot to cover.
Game: Saints at Chiefs
New Orleans has come back down to earth after a quick start and faces a tough road game in Kansas City, where they’re +5.5 underdogs. Despite the Chiefs’ 4-0 record, they’ve been dealing with injuries, including to key players like Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco, making this spread feel a bit high.
The Saints’ defense has been elite at limiting passing touchdowns, allowing just one through four games. They lead the league in fewest passing points allowed per attempt and have recorded six takeaways. Against a Chiefs offense that has struggled to consistently create explosive plays, this matchup works in favor of the Saints’ secondary.
On offense, Alvin Kamara has been the focal point, averaging 147.5 total yards per game. His ability to control the clock and maintain drives will help limit Patrick Mahomes’ opportunities. While the Chiefs have won 10 straight games, all have been decided by seven points or fewer. With New Orleans’ strong defense and Kamara’s workload, I expect this game to stay within the spread.
