I saw they’re rebooting Baywatch. That got me thinking, the NFL should do a reboot, too. They could call it Tampa Bay Watch. I can see the opening montage now; Tom Brady running down the beach in slow motion, hair perfect, throwing a tight spiral to Gronk. Gronk’s got sunscreen smeared across his nose, looking like a five-year-old at summer camp. Then out of nowhere, Warren Sapp shows up and slams Brady into a crashing wave. I’d watch that.
Anyway, I’m just deflecting because I don’t want to talk about New England’s two red zone fumbles that cost me a perfect Week 3. Instead, we had to settle for 2-1. See all our NFL Picks here.
On a broader note, straight-up favorites are hitting at 75% through three weeks, and they’re covering the spread 55% of the time. Away favorites are 12-8 (60%). Normally, favorites win about two-thirds of the time, so a 75% clip isn’t likely to hold as we get deeper into the season. Last year was unusually high with favorites winning about 72%, so maybe this is just a continuation of that trend, but history says it should cool off.
In any case, it’s too soon to look at the early-season trends as a signal. Favorite/Underdog, Home/Away, none of it matters to me at this point. I’m relying on the data, both on the field and from the betting market, to make this week’s picks this weekend. If you’re thinking about getting in on any NFL wagering, make sure you research what betting sites are available in your area. You always want to take advantage of any first-time signup deals. The latest one I saw was a Bet365 promo code to get a great bonus. Remember always to use your game sense.
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NFL BEST BETS
Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants
The Giants are turning to rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart after benching Russell Wilson, and that sets up a clear mismatch. Los Angeles has the kind of defensive front that thrives on creating pressure, the exact thing an untested rookie struggles with in his first start. Even without the pressure factor, LA’s offense is rolling, ranking near the top of the league in passing yards per game, while the Giants’ defense is near the bottom in both total yards allowed and pass defense. That combination of a top-end passing attack against one of the league’s most vulnerable secondaries is rarely kind to underdogs. Add in a run defense that has also been leaky, and the Chargers can attack in multiple ways, opening up play-action and big-chunk opportunities.
At 3-0, LA has momentum and confidence, while the Giants are winless, juggling quarterbacks, and now dealing with special teams uncertainty as veteran kicker Graham Gano is sidelined. The betting market seems to agree, with the line holding steady and even nudging higher after the QB switch. The Giants have covered just 3 of their last 14 as underdogs, and with a rookie quarterback in a tough matchup, this doesn’t look like the spot where that trend reverses. The risk is always there that a young QB flashes out of nowhere, but I don’t see that happening this week.
Pick: Chargers -6.5
Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders
Chicago isn’t winning with defense right now. They’ve been one of the worst units in the league against the run, giving up over two yards before contact on average. That’s a huge red flag against a Raiders team that has struggled to get anything going on the ground but now has a chance to get right. Still, this game sets up more as a coin flip than anything else. Caleb Williams has been up and down, but he showed against Dallas that he can create the type of plays that swing a close game. With a spread this small, that volatility can work in Chicago’s favor.
The betting market seems to agree. Around 75% of the tickets and 85% of the money are backing the Bears, yet the line hasn’t moved off Raiders -1.5. It’s usually a tell when the public and the sharper money are both leaning the same way. The Raiders’ offense isn’t exactly trustworthy either, and their line has had real issues protecting the quarterback. If Chicago can get Williams a couple of clean pockets and avoid the big mistakes, they can win this game.
Pick: Bears +1.5
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City isn’t often getting points at home, and that alone is reason to look their way. Mahomes is 8-3-1 against the spread as an underdog, and he and Andy Reid usually have something dialed up in these spots. Baltimore’s defense was expected to be a top-10 unit, but through three weeks they’ve struggled, ranking 22nd in success rate allowed. Losing Justin Madubuike up front only makes things tougher. The Chiefs’ offensive line is solid inside, which helps Mahomes step into throws, and with Baltimore already allowing a high rate of explosive plays, KC should find chances to move the ball.
The Chiefs’ defense deserves more respect too. They’re near the top of the league in EPA/play allowed and have done a good job of limiting explosive plays. That matches up well against a Ravens offense that still hasn’t found much rhythm in its passing game. Lamar has been held to a -0.012 EPA per dropback, and Baltimore ranks only 22nd in early down success rate. Spagnuolo’s defenses have a track record of handling mobile quarterbacks by forcing them to play underneath, and if KC does that here, it keeps the game tight. With the Chiefs catching points at Arrowhead, Mahomes and an underrated defense look like the right side.
Pick: Chiefs +2.5
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