NFL Best Bets: Week 3
The season is going exactly how we all expected. The Colts came out firing, scoring on their first ten possessions of the year, the first team in league history to do it, and they still haven’t punted. Daniel Jones looks steady, Jonathan Taylor is running downhill, and suddenly, Indianapolis has the look of a team nobody saw coming. On the flip side, the Chiefs are 0-2 for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era, with Mahomes leading the team in rushing while the offense struggles to find rhythm. If you predicted that combination before the season, you’re either a genius or very lucky.
Before we read too much into it, remember what happened last year. The Saints opened 2-0, looked like a contender after scoring 91 points in two weeks, and then faded right back near the bottom of the league. Two games can tell you something, but they can also lie.
Even so, this season already feels unpredictable. We head into Week 3 with the possibility of five backup quarterbacks starting: Carson Wentz for Minnesota, Jake Browning for Cincinnati, Tyrod Taylor for the Jets, Marcus Mariota for Washington, and Mac Jones for San Francisco if Brock Purdy isn’t ready. That’s a lot of Plan B this early in the season, and it makes handicapping even more of a challenge.
Last week I went 1-2. Thank goodness for Baker Mayfield refusing to lose, he came through and kept me from an 0-3 hole. I owe him a sugar cookie or two next time he rolls into Carolina.
In Week 3, I’m looking for some lines that may be inflated because the public is buying into hot starts. Others might be undervalued because teams have not matched early expectations. The goal is to find the overreactions and take advantage before the market corrects and I think we can find that with some home underdogs this week.
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NFL BEST BETS
Carolina Panthers +5.5 vs Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons’ defense has been outstanding through two weeks, but this feels like a good spot to back Carolina. Atlanta is favored by 5.5, and while they’ve looked good early on, they have not been a reliable team against the spread. In fact, the Falcons are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games. Carolina, on the other hand, has covered in 8 of their last 11.
The matchup itself provides reasons to like the Panthers. Atlanta will be without top corner A.J. Terrell, which leaves their secondary more vulnerable. That opens the door for a big day from Tetairoa McMillan, who already looks like a legitimate WR1. Carolina has offensive line issues after losing both Austin Corbett and Robert Hunt to injured reserve, but Atlanta’s pass rush has been average so far, which might limit the damage up front.
Division games tend to be tighter, and home underdogs in this range often find ways to hang around. I think Carolina will surprise some folks in this game and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them get their first win this week.
Pick: Panthers +5.5
New England Patriots +1.5 vs Pittsburgh Steelers
This game sets up nicely for New England. The Patriots are small home underdogs, catching +1.5, and recent history leans heavily in their favor. New England has beaten Pittsburgh in eight of the last nine matchups, and the Steelers have covered just once in their last six road games. Coming off a 33-27 win over Miami, the Patriots have shown they can put points on the board and keep pace against opponents.
The matchup edges line up in their favor too. From the chart, New England’s passing efficiency (0.213 EPA per pass, 8th in the league) stands out, while Pittsburgh’s pass defense ranks near the bottom (30th in EPA allowed per play). That’s a clear opening for the Patriots’ offense. On the ground, the Steelers have been even shakier, giving up 5.2 yards per carry (31st). That should give Rhamondre Stevenson and the Patriots’ run game room to work.
Meanwhile, the Steelers’ offensive line is banged up, with Max Scharping out for the season and overall protection issues showing up in the metrics. Their offense is ranked 31st in EPA/play, and early-down success is just 36.6% (29th). New England’s defense has had tackling lapses, but reinforcements are back with Keion White practicing fully and Christian Gonzalez trending toward a return, which should steady the secondary.
It’s a small number, but that works in New England’s favor. At +1.5, you’re betting on a home team with matchup edges in both the run game and pass defense, plus the benefit of recent momentum. Against a Pittsburgh team that has struggled to protect the quarterback and stop the run, the Patriots look like the right side.
Pick: Patriots +1.5
Chicago Bears +1.5 vs Dallas Cowboys
Two bad defenses and two uneven offenses make this one tricky, but I like the spot for Chicago. The Bears got embarrassed last week, and history says teams that lose by 29 or more tend to bounce back strong the following game. Dallas, meanwhile, just played five quarters of football, so fatigue could be a factor. Add in that Chicago has been one of the better home field teams in recent years, scoring nearly three points more per game at home than on the road, and that’s enough to tilt the scales in their favor.
The matchup itself is interesting. Dallas’s run game has been efficient, but their offensive line just lost starting center Cooper Beebe, which could throw off protection and timing. On the other side, the Bears’ defense is banged up with Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, and T.J. Edwards all sidelined or limited, so the offense may have to shoulder more of the load. That might actually work in their favor against a Dallas defense that has struggled more than expected early on.
Chicago is also historically strong at home against the Cowboys, covering in four of the last six meetings in Soldier Field. When you combine that with the bounce-back angle, home field edge, and Dallas’s injury concerns, I’m comfortable siding with the Bears to cover the +1.5.
Pick: Bears +1.5
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