Week 3 is upon us, and if your fantasy football team looks anything like mine, it’s barely clinging to life. My is being held together by duct tape, waiver wire pickups, and hope. It seems like injuries have increased this year, and my bench looks like a hospital waiting room. But while my fantasy squad may be on life support, each week is a new opportunity to bet on football games.
Last week was a good one for backing road underdogs, who went 8-1 against the spread. All three of my best bets were road underdogs, and, of course, I just happened to pick the one team that lost (Rams). But our record stands at 4-2, with profitable back-to-back weeks to open the season, so I can’t complain too much.
There are some surprising lines this week that I doubt any of us would have predicted in the preseason. The Titans -2.5 vs. the Packers, New Orleans -2.5 vs. Philadelphia, the Seahawks -4.5 vs. the Dolphins, and Baltimore -1 at Dallas. Injuries account for some of those lines, but it shows just how unpredictable the NFL is. There are also 11 road underdogs this week and I’ll be focusing on those games once again for my best bets.
See all our NFL picks here.
Best Bets
Giants +6.5 at Browns
The perception of Daniel Jones and the Giants is that they have an anemic offense that struggles to score. That’s true, of course, but they’ve still managed to gain more yards through the first two games of the season than the Browns. Deshaun Watson has struggled so far, managing only one touchdown and 355 passing yards while tossing two interceptions. They struggle to maintain drives, ranking 31st in the league in 3rd Down Success Rate. New York is averaging three sacks per game, so Watson will have to beat the pressure for Cleveland’s offense to be successful. The Browns are not a team that is going to put up a lot of points, so this spread feels high.
The Giants’ offense flashed at times against the Commanders. They rushed for 129 yards, and rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers showed his star potential, catching 10 passes for 127 yards and a touchdown. If New York can manage some big chunk plays through the air and score a couple of touchdowns, this game will be close. It helps that the Cleveland defense hasn’t forced a turnover yet, which could take some pressure off Daniel Jones.
The Browns have an implied score of 23 points. They managed just 17 and 18 points in their first two games, so I’m not sure they will get there, which means covering 6.5 points will be very difficult for them.
Panthers +5 at Raiders
The Panthers made the switch to veteran quarterback Andy Dalton this week. Bryce Young struggled in his first two starts, but Dalton’s experience should help stabilize the offense. His job will be avoiding costly turnovers and managing drives more efficiently, which will be crucial against a Las Vegas defense that thrives on pressure but is vulnerable in coverage.
On the defensive side, Carolina has the potential to slow down the Raiders’ offense. With Las Vegas averaging only 49 rushing yards per game, the Panthers can focus on containing Gardner Minshew and his passing attack.
Special teams play could also make a difference in this game for Carolina. Raheem Blackshear leads the league in kick return yards, which could give Carolina excellent field position throughout the game, shortening the field for Dalton and the offense. If the Panthers can capitalize on their defensive strengths and avoid mistakes on offense, they have a real shot at winning their first game of the year.
Commanders +7.5 at Bengals
Washington heads into their Monday night matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals after a close win against the Giants. The Commanders have momentum on their side, which could carry over into this game. A key battle will be Washington’s pass rush against the Bengals’ struggling offensive line. Cincinnati has had issues protecting Joe Burrow, and that weakness has been a contributing factor in their 0-2 start. Washington’s defense could take advantage of this, keeping Cincinnati’s offense in check. Consistent pressure from the Commanders will make it difficult for Burrow to find Ja’Marr Chase, giving Washington a fighting chance to stay within the spread.
On offense, Jayden Daniels is a dual threat, both through the air and on the ground. His 132 rushing yards and two touchdowns so far this season give Washington an edge that can wear down Cincinnati’s defense. If the Commanders can control the clock and establish their ground game, they’ll be able to limit the Bengals’ time of possession and keep the game close.
Adding to the Bengals’ woes is their poor record as favorites on Monday night. Cincinnati has failed to cover the spread in each of their last four Monday Night Football appearances. I’m not necessarily big on those types of trends, but I think it has merit here, as these two teams appear to be going in different directions.
