Week 18 is here, and before diving into our NFL Best Bets column, let’s take a moment to congratulate all the folks who brought home fantasy league championships this season. I hope our team at GridironExperts.com had a hand in your success! I won my home league championship for the 6th time in our 13 years of existence. It’s always fun to claim those bragging rights, but you know what’s even better? Cashing in on some smart bets! Let’s get to it.
After taking last week off for the holidays, we’re back with another week of our best bets against the spread. With a record of 31-17, 64.6%, it’s been another profitable season for us. Let’s keep that going in the new year!
As we approach the final week of the regular season, motivation plays a critical role in handicapping games. Teams with something on the line, whether it’s securing a playoff berth, improving their seeding, or winning their division, are generally in a better position to cover the spread. This week, I’m focusing on teams with something to play for.
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Bengals -2 at Steelers
The Bengals are on fire, covering in four straight games and putting together an improbable late-season push. After a 1-4 start and a three-game losing streak later in the year, Cincinnati has clawed its way back into playoff contention by playing some of the best football in the league. Joe Burrow has been at the heart of it all, leading the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns while spreading the ball around like a surgeon. Ja’Marr Chase has been unstoppable, leading the league in catches, yards, and touchdowns, while Tee Higgins continues to be a lethal complement. Together, they’ve made Cincinnati a nightmare matchup for any defense, and Pittsburgh’s secondary doesn’t look up to the task.
The Steelers’ defense has been abysmal against the pass over the last five games, allowing a 108.6 QB rating, 70.3% completion rate, and a 13-4 TD-INT ratio. That’s a problem when you’re facing a quarterback like Burrow, who carved them up for 309 yards and three touchdowns in Week 13 by working short and intermediate routes. The Steelers barely escaped that game with a win, needing Russell Wilson to have one of the best games of his career. With Pittsburgh’s defense still searching for answers and Burrow playing at an MVP level, Cincinnati should be able to move the ball at will.
On the other side, Pittsburgh’s offense isn’t consistent enough to pick up the slack. The Steelers have lost three straight games, failing to cover in any of them, and their late-season struggles are nothing new. They rank dead last in Net Yards per Play over their last three games (-1.3) and 23rd in the league for the season. Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s defense, while not great, has improved. Since Week 11, they rank 17th in opponent EPA per play, four spots better than the Steelers over that span. That’s enough to give Burrow and the Bengals the edge, especially with Pittsburgh’s defense unable to stop anyone right now.
This is a must-win game for Cincinnati, and they’ve shown they can handle the pressure. Burrow has been great in late-season matchups, going 2-1 ATS and 3-0 SU in Weeks 17 and 18 during his career. The Bengals are 28-11 ATS and 21-17-1 SU in road games under Burrow. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has already clinched a playoff spot, so the urgency just isn’t the same. Even if the Steelers want to improve their seeding, it’s hard to trust them with the way they’ve been playing lately. I think Cincinnati will win this matchup handily.
Commanders -6 at Cowboys
The Commanders head into this game with momentum, and it’s hard to see them slowing down now. Winners of four straight, Washington has already locked up a playoff spot but still has plenty to play for. A win here secures the No. 6 seed, steering them away from the Eagles and into a far more favorable matchup against the Rams or Buccaneers.
Jayden Daniels has been nothing short of stellar in his rookie campaign, especially over the last month. With a 13-4 TD-INT ratio, a 109.8 QB rating, and a 72% completion rate during this win streak, Daniels has looked every bit the franchise quarterback Washington has been searching for. His ability to move the ball through the air or on the ground has made the Commanders one of the league’s most dangerous offenses, averaging 32 points per game over this stretch. That spells trouble for a Cowboys defense ranked 31st in points allowed and 29th against the pass. Outside of Micah Parsons, who hasn’t been the same game-wrecker lately, this unit hasn’t shown they can keep up with anyone.
Defensively, the Commanders have stepped up when it matters most. They’re sixth in third-down and red-zone defense and have leaned on playmakers like Dante Fowler and Frankie Luvu to pressure quarterbacks. Fowler has sacks in back-to-back games, while Luvu has been a workhorse, playing nearly every snap this season. Combine that with an offense firing on all cylinders, and you have a team peaking at just the right time.
The Cowboys may lead the all-time series, but this isn’t the same Dallas team. Washington is healthier, more motivated, and playing far better football right now. The Commanders have covered in four straight games and are poised to make it five. Lay the six points with confidence that Daniels and company will handle their business against a Cowboys team ready to turn the page on a disappointing season.
Chargers -4 at Raiders
Under Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles has transformed into a tough, disciplined team that’s firing on all cylinders. They’ve already punched their ticket to the playoffs, but this game still matters. A win could land them the fifth seed and a much easier Wild Card matchup against the AFC South champ. That’s reason enough to expect a full effort from the Chargers.
Justin Herbert has been everything you’d want in a franchise quarterback, leading the league with an interception rate of just 0.6%. Combine that with a defense that’s allowed fewer than 20 points in 11 of 16 games, and you’ve got a team built to dominate in games like this. With five players recording at least five sacks, the Chargers’ defense is deep, dangerous, and ready to feast on a Raiders offense ranked 28th in scoring.
The Raiders, meanwhile, have been a mess all season. At 4-12, they’ve played their way out of the No. 1 draft pick while failing to show much promise anywhere else. Their defense might rank eighth in opponent EPA since Week 11, but that’s been against teams like the Jaguars and Saints. The Chargers are a different challenge entirely, and the Raiders simply don’t have the firepower to keep up.
Harbaugh isn’t taking his foot off the gas, either. He’s made it clear the Chargers are playing to win. This one feels straightforward: the Chargers have the motivation, the talent, and the coaching edge. The Raiders, on the other hand, are not built to compete at this level.
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