NFL Best Bets: Week 15
Christmas is almost here, and like a lot of people, I’ll be traveling. This year, I’ll be spending the holiday in the Caribbean. Like Tua Tagovailoa, the cold weather is my kryptonite. Instead of building a snowman, I’d rather get a suntan. I’ll leave the snow angels to Josh Allen in freezing Buffalo while Tua and I kick it on the beach. Anyway, on to this week’s picks.
Last week, we went 3-0, bringing our season record to 27-15 (64.3%) ATS. All three picks were road teams, a profitable angle this season. However, blindly chasing trends can lead you astray. For example, while the public has a winning ATS record overall, if you remove their two best weeks, their win rate plummets to 46.3%. It’s a reminder that what looks like a trend may just be luck. The key is digging deeper to separate real edges from noise.
Having said that, I continue to look at road favorites because they’ve performed well this season. There are seven road favorites this week, and while I’m not advocating for automatically picking all of them, it’s a solid starting point for analysis. Take the Ravens, for example. While I believe they’ll beat the Giants on the road by 14 points, I wouldn’t feel comfortable backing a road team to cover such a large spread in the unpredictable NFL. On the other hand, the Steelers have been playing well, and I don’t think they should be a five-point underdog at home against the Eagles. That said, I do see good value in other games involving road favorites, and those are the matchups I’ve chosen for my best bets this week.
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BEST BETS
Jets -3 at Jaguars
The Jaguars have struggled to stay competitive this season, despite covering six of their last seven games. Over the past three weeks, their Net Yards per Play (-1.4) is among the worst in the league, which highlights their inability to sustain drives or stop opponents. By comparison, the Jets rank a respectable 14th in that same metric (+0.1).
Defensively, Jacksonville ranks last in opponent dropback EPA and opponent yards per pass attempt (7.8), providing a prime opportunity for Aaron Rodgers and the Jets’ offense to find success. Last week, New York showed some resilience despite losing in overtime against Miami. They have consistently stayed competitive and sport a healthier and more talented roster than Jacksonville.
The Jaguars’ offense, which scored just 10 points last week, has struggled to find consistency. Combined with their lackluster defense, it’s difficult to envision them keeping pace in this matchup. I look for the Jets to end their skid with a win on the road this week.
Commanders -7 at Saints
The Saints have managed to stay somewhat respectable in the past month despite a season plagued by injuries. Interim head coach Darren Rizzi has done an admirable job keeping the team together, but it feels like they’re running out of gas. Derek Carr suffered a broken hand and a concussion last week, and whether it’s Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler under center, New Orleans’ offense is in trouble. Both have struggled mightily in limited action this season, and without Taysom Hill and Chris Olave, the Saints are limping into this matchup.
Meanwhile, the Commanders are rested after a dominant 42-19 win over the Titans before their bye. Washington has been up and down at times this year, but they’re still ranked third in the NFL in EPA per play and Success Rate, a testament to how dangerous their offense can be. Jayden Daniels, the Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner, is back in Louisiana, where he won the Heisman Trophy last year, and he should feel right at home picking apart the Saints’ struggling defense. New Orleans ranks 31st in the league in yards allowed per play (5.9), which sets up perfectly for Washington to run the ball effectively and build an early lead.
Last week’s performance against the Giants didn’t inspire confidence in the Saints. Even with Derek Carr playing most of the game, New Orleans managed just 4.4 yards per play against one of the league’s worst defenses. Now, their injury-riddled offensive line has to face a rested Commanders team with plenty to play for. Washington, sitting at 8-5, has a legitimate shot at the postseason and can’t afford to drop this game. If you’re worried about the number being too high, keep in mind that rookie quarterbacks favored by seven or more points are 13-4 ATS since 2019.
Bengals -4 at Titans
The Bengals enter this matchup coming off a dramatic win over Dallas, where a lucky bounce turned into a game-winning touchdown from Joe Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase. While Cincinnati’s defense remains a concern, their offense, led by the NFL’s passing leader and receiving leader, is more than capable of carrying the team. The Titans, meanwhile, are stuck in a full rebuild and boast the league’s worst record against the spread at 2-11.
Will Levis has shown flashes, but his penchant for taking sacks has made it nearly impossible for the Titans to sustain drives. Levis ranks 36th out of 37 quarterbacks in success rate among those with at least 200 snaps, and the Titans’ scoring offense is one of the worst in the AFC.
The Bengals’ defense has been abysmal at times, ranking last in opponent EPA since Week 8, but the Titans’ offense doesn’t inspire confidence. Tennessee managed zero touchdowns at home against Jacksonville last week and was booed off the field by their own fans. Now they face a motivated Cincinnati team that still has playoff hopes and thrives on the road with a 6-1 ATS record.
Tennessee lacks the firepower to keep up with Cincinnati’s explosive offense. The Titans are averaging just 4.6 yards per play over their last three games, while the Bengals continue to churn out points even when their defense falters. This game ranks as my top bet of the week.
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