NFL Picks

NFL Best Bets Week 15

By Doug

Posted on December 16, 2022

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We had another winning week last week and kept our season-winning percentage at 65% for our Best Bets. That would be a good record picking games straight up this year, so I’m pretty happy with these results against the spread. This week, I’m looking to take advantage of some soft lines on games with backup quarterbacks. Baltimore and Arizona would likely be favored if Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray were playing. Although especially in Jackson’s case, both players are an integral part of their offense, I’m not sure the drop-off is that significant against these opponents. Both are also road underdogs which, if you’ve read the column this year, you know that’s one of my favorite bets. As always, you can find all my picks, straight up and against the spread, on Gridiron Experts.

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Minnesota Vikings -4.5 vs Indianapolis Colts

I got it wrong last week betting on the Vikings to cover against the Lions. Minnesota lost decisively and I think that has affected the line in this game. PFF ranks the Vikings 9th in their power rankings, which I think is too high, but they’re not a bad team. On the other hand, I think the Colts are a bottom-five team. This game is in Minnesota and Indy is only averaging 12.7 points per game on the road. Even with Minnesota’s defense allowing the second most yards per play, the Colts are not likely to take advantage of it. They’re among the worst teams in the league in early down success rate and dead last in turnover margin. The Colts have a decent secondary, but Justin Jefferson is unstoppable and should be the difference-maker in this game. I think the Vikings will cover easily.

Baltimore Ravens +3 at Cleveland Browns

Tyler Huntley has cleared concussion protocol, but coach Jim Harbaugh is being coy about who will start for the Ravens. I can’t imagine it won’t be Huntley, though. Either way, the Ravens will be running the ball a lot because they’re really good at it and the Browns are really bad at stopping it. Baltimore, (shout out to my hometown), is second in the league in rushing yards, while the Cleveland defense ranks 30th in Rush DVOA. The Ravens should also be able to get off some big runs. Although much of it can be attributed to Lamar Jackson, Baltimore ranks second in explosive rush plays. With J.K. Dobbins back in the lineup, the run game shouldn’t suffer any in Jackson’s absence. The Browns are also adept at running the ball, but the Ravens run defense has been spectacular since acquiring Roquan Smith, allowing only 55 rushing yards per game. Deshaun Watson has been a bit rusty in his two starts and if he doesn’t get back on track, Cleveland will have a tough time scoring. This game could come down to turnovers and special teams, both of which favor Baltimore, who ranks second in turnover differential and first in special teams DVOA. I like Baltimore +3 without Huntley, but I think they’ll win outright if he plays.

Arizona Cardinals +3 at Denver Broncos

I’m assuming Russell Wilson will not play this game, so I’m giving Denver a little boost on offense. Same for Arizona, with Kyler Murray out. I jest, of course, but these two offenses have been so bad, I’m not sure either team will do any worse without them. This will be a defensive battle, for sure. The Cardinals will have a tough time passing the ball against a Broncos defense ranked third in pass DVOA. The Cardinals are an average run team, at best, so it won’t be easy on the ground, either. On the other side of the ball, Arizona’s defense is 5th in pressure rate and will make life difficult for Denver’s quarterback. This line opened at Cardinal’s -2.5, but took a big swing when Murray went out. I think the line movement went way too far the other way. This game has the lowest total of the week which is a pretty good sign it will close. I think 3 is a good number to bet on the Cardinals here.

Check out all my NFL Picks for week 15 here.