NFL Best Bets
Everyone loves a good sequel. Take Wicked, for example. Wicked 2 comes out this week and people are excited. Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo are popular, familiar faces and audiences enjoy seeing them again. It’s a lot like the Kansas City Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. You know them, you like them and you’ve probably rooted for them more than once.
But even with a strong cast, if Wicked pushed into a sixth, seventh or eighth installment, the excitement would eventually fade. The quality might still be there, but fans would start craving something different. That’s where the Chiefs seem to be drifting. Not bad, not disliked, just easing into that long-running franchise territory where people begin looking around for a fresh storyline.
Maybe it’s time to give others their shot at glory. Unless Sylvester Stallone wants to make another Rocky. That’s the only exception.
Speaking of something new, a winning week would be nice. Last week, the best bets went 1-2, but I finished 10-5 ATS overall, so it wasn’t all bad. Picking ATS has been especially tough this year. According to the Action Network, teams getting 60% or more of the public tickets are just 38-66 ATS, a 36% cover rate. That’s their worst public-heavy mark in the 23 years they’ve been tracking it. And since I’m a man of the public, I guess that explains my performance this season.
So is the answer to fade the public every time? Not exactly, but there are moments when it makes sense. Fading the public works best when the number has inflated because of one-sided betting and the line stops reflecting the matchup itself. You see it when a popular favorite gets pushed a point or two past where it should be, or when an underdog becomes undervalued because nobody wants to touch them. That’s why the Kansas City–Indianapolis game fits the theme this week. As of this writing, 61% of the bets are on the Colts. The Chiefs have slipped into that sequel fatigue zone where people are eager to bet against them, and that’s when fading the public isn’t contrarian at all, it’s just taking the better price.
NFL BEST BETS
Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans
This number looks huge at first glance, but the first thing that jumps out is how close these matchups tend to be. The last eight games between Seattle and Tennessee have all been decided by one possession.
There’s also the motivation angle. Tennessee has played poorly and has been eliminated from anything meaningful for weeks. Sometimes teams in that situation quit, but other times they loosen up. They play faster and take risks that can catch a superior opponent sleepwalking. Seattle is coming off a stretch of road games and is heavily favored. That’s exactly the kind of spot where the favorite drifts into cruise control and the underdog hangs around longer than expected.
Even though the Titans are awful, they haven’t been a total disaster for bettors. They’re 4-6 ATS despite a 1-9 record. They’re also back at home with a chance to end a year-long home losing streak. If you’re looking for emotional edges, that’s one.
This is still risky. The Titans have one of the worst offenses in the league, averaging just over 14 points per game, and Seattle is simply the better team across the board. But value is value, and the market may have over-corrected here.
Pick: Titans +13.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Arizona Cardinals
Arizona has been one of the better underdogs in the league. They are 9- 3 ATS in their last twelve games as a dog, and they have covered well at home. They tend to play above expectations when they are getting points.
There is also some line value. Arizona opened as a slight favorite before public money pushed the number toward Jacksonville. Sharp action stayed with the Cardinals, which is a good sign when you can take a full field goal at home. Jacoby Brissett has been playing at a high level. He threw for 452 yards last week and has more than fifteen hundred yards over his last five starts with ten touchdowns and three interceptions. If he stays anywhere near that level, the plus three becomes very realistic.
Jacksonville is the better team on paper, but the number is what matters. Getting three points with a veteran quarterback who is in rhythm gives the Cardinals enough value to justify the pick.
Pick: Cardinals +3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams enter Week 12 at 8-2 with a five game winning streak, and they have been one of the most complete teams in the league. They are strong on both sides of the ball and have played especially well at home.
Tampa Bay has struggled against quality offenses, losing three of their last four in those spots and giving up large point totals. They rank near the bottom of the league in net yards per play, and their defense has real issues against play action and under center throws. That is exactly what the Rams lean on. Matthew Stafford is having a top level season, and his connection with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams gives Los Angeles a major edge through the air.
The Rams also tend to start fast. They have led on more than half of their offensive snaps this season and have outscored opponents 69 to 26 in the first quarter. Tampa Bay has been outscored early and often falls behind on the road. If that pattern holds, the Rams are built to control the game from in front.
Tampa Bay can be dangerous at times, but they have been inconsistent and their recent defensive results are not encouraging. With the Rams rolling and holding clear advantages in efficiency and offensive matchups, the -6.5 is justified.
Pick: Rams -6.5
