NFL Best Bets
Tom Brady made headlines this week for cloning his dog. Of course he did. The man who defied aging for twenty-three seasons wasn’t about to let biology win now. He used a Dallas biotech firm to recreate his late pit-bull mix, Fluffy, which makes sense for someone who’s spent his life reverse-engineering time. I can imagine Bill Belichick seeing that headline and getting an idea. I can see him now, sneaking into a biology lab at UNC and starting his own little experiment, wearing a gray lab coat with the sleeves cut off, extracting DNA from one of Brady’s old deflated footballs. He’ll be back in the NFL in no time, with a brand-new version of Tom Brady.
Anyway, that paragraph has nothing to do with betting. I just needed to stall before talking about last week, which went 0-3 and had me wishing I could clone last year’s amazing results. Thankfully, the Gridiron Experts crew picked up the slack. Lawrence Iacona is sitting third overall on Tallysight out of more than 250 experts against the spread, which is no small feat in a season that’s been chaos from week to week. If you want to check out all our staff picks, ATS and straight up, you can find them for free here each week.
This column focuses on against-the-spread plays, but it’s worth mentioning what’s been happening on the moneyline. Through nine weeks, if you had simply bet one unit on every favorite to win outright on Draftkings, you would be up about 3.3 percent. That is a staggering return for such a basic approach and a clear sign that favorites have had a stronger edge than usual this season.
Against the spread, favorites are covering 55.6 percent of the time, well above what we normally see. And it is wrecking my model, which usually finds its value on the underdog side. There is no way to know if this trend will hold, but nine weeks is a pretty solid sample. It is at least something to keep in mind before clicking “place bet” this weekend.
Of course, I picked all the favorites last week and still went 0-3. Is it any wonder I have trust issues?
See all our Staff NFL Picks for week 10 here
NFL BEST BETS
Atlanta Falcons vs Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are 7–2 and have looked like one of the few teams this season that actually knows what it is. The Falcons, meanwhile, are 3–5 and about as consistent as an international flight itinerary. Indianapolis added All-Pro corner Sauce Gardner at the trade deadline, and he’s cleared to play. That alone gives their secondary a major upgrade against a Falcons offense that already struggles to sustain drives.
The Colts rank among the league’s top offenses, averaging 385 yards per game, and their running attack can control tempo once they get a lead. Add in that the Colts are 6–3 against the spread compared to Atlanta’s 2–5–1, and they’ve beaten the Falcons 16 of the last 19 times they’ve met.
Sure, international games are unpredictable, but the Colts have won five straight after a loss, and this matchup feels like a bounce-back spot.
Pick: Colts -6.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
This line looks almost too polite. Jacksonville sits at 4–4 against the spread, while Houston is 3–5 ATS and turning to backup quarterback Davis Mills with C.J. Stroud out due to a concussion. Mills is capable, but there’s a reason he’s holding a clipboard most weeks. That single change lowers Houston’s offensive ceiling and gives Jacksonville a clear advantage in a divisional game they badly need.
Jacksonville’s offense has added another weapon with Jakobi Meyers joining an already balanced attack led by Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne Jr. The Texans’ defense has been vulnerable to both big runs and coverage busts, and the loss of Stroud makes it tougher for them to keep pace if the Jaguars start fast. With the spread sitting at just one point, you’re essentially betting on Jacksonville to win outright, and given the quarterback situation, that’s a wager worth making.
Pick: Jaguars -1
LA Rams at San Francisco 49ers
History says the underdog almost always finds a way in this rivalry. Thirteen of the last fourteen meetings between these teams have ended with the points side covering, and San Francisco already proved it can hang with Los Angeles by beating them 26-23 in overtime earlier this season. Getting four and a half points at home in that context feels generous.
It’s still unclear who will start at quarterback for the 49ers, Brock Purdy or Mac Jones, but recent reports point to Jones. Either way, San Francisco has shown it can move the ball. Last week Jones completed 19 of 24 passes for 235 yards and two touchdowns, while Christian McCaffrey piled up 173 total yards and a score. The 49ers have the firepower to keep pace in what should be a high-scoring game; the total of 49.5 is the second-highest of Week 10.
The Rams remain dangerous, but their road results have been uneven and their secondary has shown cracks against receivers who can separate quickly. The 49ers have the personnel to exploit that, and even with key injuries on defense, they’ve reinforced their pass rush and continue to play hard in divisional games.
The Rams deserve to be favored, but not by this much. San Francisco’s offense is good enough to keep it close, and the trends point to that being the case.
Pick: 49ers +4.5
