NFL Best Bets: Week 10
Another week down, and another 2-1 result from our Best Bets, bringing us to a solid 17-10 record on the season (62.9%). Anytime you’re winning over 60% against the spread, you’ve got to feel good about that. But I’ll admit, finding true value picks has been tougher this season. Unlike previous years, I haven’t been able to consistently find mismatched lines, whether home vs. away or favorite vs. underdog. Road favorites have done well this year, but they’re rare, with only three on the slate this week (49ers, Jets, Eagles). And while I’d back the road teams in those games, they don’t quite hit “best bet” status.
Home favorites are sitting at a perfectly split 43-43-2 ATS, but my model does like a few this week. That said, I tend to favor the underdogs. Maybe I’ve seen Rudy one too many times (just kidding, there’s no such thing). This week, all three of my best bets are underdogs. While trends like road favorites can be useful, betting blindly on past performance alone isn’t the way to go.
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BEST BETS
Panthers +6.5 vs Giants
The Panthers enter this game as 6.5-point underdogs, which feels like too much for a matchup between two 2-7 teams heading to Munich. Despite their struggles, Carolina has shown resilience, and while their offense has been inconsistent, flipping between Bryce Young and Andy Dalton, they still managed a one-point win over the Saints last week. That victory came against a battered New Orleans squad, but it showed that the Panthers can keep games close, even without Diontae Johnson.
On the other side, the Giants have been slightly better on the road, with Daniel Jones’ quarterback rating jumping from 78.9 at home to 91.2 away. However, this isn’t a true road game, and translating his success to a neutral site in Germany is uncertain. While Malik Nabers and Dexter Lawrence could give the Panthers’ offensive line some trouble, New York’s offense lacks the firepower to run away with this game, especially given their own struggles in the red zone and running the ball consistently.
In a matchup where both teams have significant issues and neither has a clear edge, a 6.5-point spread feels too generous for the Giants. Expect a low-scoring, grind-it-out affair, with Carolina doing just enough to cover the spread.
Broncos +9 at Chiefs
The Broncos are 9-point underdogs against the undefeated Chiefs, but that spread feels too high for a team with Denver’s defensive strength. Despite their blowout loss to Baltimore, the Broncos’ defense remains one of the league’s best, led by elite talents like Pat Surtain II and Zach Allen, who ranks first among DTs in pass rush win rate. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have relied heavily on Patrick Mahomes, but their offense has been surprisingly inefficient at generating big plays, ranking last in explosive rush rate. That lack of explosiveness could be a factor against a Denver defense that excels at containing teams.
Kansas City has struggled to cover as large favorites, going 0-2 ATS in their last two games as 9 and 10-point favorites, with close wins that required Mahomes’ magic. And while the Chiefs are favored for good reason, this spread is inflated given their post-overtime Monday night situation and a matchup against Denver’s top-tier defensive front. Denver’s defense should keep this competitive. This game has all the signs of another close Chiefs win, but Kansas City’s recent trend of narrow victories makes the Broncos a smart choice to cover.
Saints +4 vs Falcons
The Saints come in as 4-point underdogs against the Falcons, but despite their recent struggles, this spread may be too wide for a divisional rivalry. Following the firing of head coach Dennis Allen, interim coach Darren Rizzi has a chance to inject new energy into a Saints team desperate to break a seven-game losing streak. While the Saints have had their issues, Atlanta’s weaknesses play right into New Orleans’ strengths. The Falcons rank dead last in pass rush, with only nine sacks on the season, giving Derek Carr more time in the pocket.
On offense, New Orleans still has weapons like Alvin Kamara, who put up over 100 total yards in their first meeting. Even if Chris Olave remains out in concussion protocol, Kamara’s versatility and Carr’s improved mobility should help the Saints’ offense find ways to move the ball. Meanwhile, Atlanta is dealing with its own challenges, with WR Drake London listed as day-to-day with a hip injury and DT Grady Jarrett sidelined.
While Atlanta is favored here, New Orleans’ ability to take advantage of Atlanta’s pass rush issues and the boost from a new coaching dynamic give them an edge to cover the spread. Expect this divisional game to be close, with New Orleans keeping it competitive and potentially pulling off an upset.
