The NFL season officially kicks off this weekend, as millions of fans bid farewell to their families and settle into the annual NFL hibernation, emerging only for touchdown celebrations and snack refills. At my house, it’s not different, where my wife (jokingly?) dons black attire and declares herself a football widow for the season. (Does that make me a zombie come February?)
This marks the start of another season for my Best Bets column, now in its third year. We’ve had plenty of success here: topping Tallysight’s ATS standings in 2022 and finishing second in Closing Line Value (a key long-term betting metric) last season, according to SharpRank’s performance rankings. On top of that, I’ve led Fantasy Nerd’s NFL Picks Accuracy Leaderboard each of the last two seasons. So we’ve done well and, hopefully, we can continue the trend this season.
Each week, I will break down three games that I believe have the best chance to beat the spread. Using a mix of stats, trends, my model, and a little bit of gut instinct, I’ll dig into each matchup to find value, aiming to help readers get an edge. In 2022, that edge was picking road underdogs, which we did with a lot of success. The oddsmakers adjusted last season, making exploiting the lines much more difficult. My goal this season is to adapt and look for new angles to outsmart Vegas.
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Depending on how you look at it, week 1 is either really difficult to pick winners, or it’s really easy. I think it’s more difficult because we don’t have a lot of information to go on. Some teams haven’t changed much from last season, so that makes it easier, but most teams have experienced a fair amount of turnover in key personnel, either players or coaches, so there’s a lot of guesswork in our analysis of how they should perform. For someone like me who likes to have a ton of data to make decisions, this makes early season prognosticating harder. However, some analysts are confident enough in their approach that they believe they can exploit soft lines to start the year. I wish I had their confidence! Nonetheless, the picks must be made and I’m here to make them.
This week, I’m revisiting an old friend; road underdogs. There’s a lot of them to choose from. Of the 15 games not played on a neutral field this week, 13 have the home team as the favorite. In an era where home field advantage seems to have lessened in recent years, that’s quite a number. Home teams won about 56% of the time last season, so it’s unlikely 87% of home teams will win this week.
Cardinals +6.5 at Bills
Buffalo has shown vulnerability in early-season matchups. In Week 1 of 2023, they lost to the New York Jets 22-16 in overtime, where turnovers were a significant issue. Josh Allen led the league with 18 interceptions last season. This turnover potential provides the Cardinals with more opportunities to stay within the spread. The Bills’ rush defense allowed 4.7 yards per carry in 2023, second-worst in the NFL, which gives Arizona’s run game—particularly Kyler Murray’s scrambling—a chance to create scoring drives and control the clock.
Historically, the Cardinals have performed decently as underdogs. They were 9-8 against the spread as underdogs last season, including 4-5 as away underdogs.They won both games outright in the two road games where they were +6 or higher. With Buffalo’s occasional slow starts and turnover-prone offense, Arizona has a good chance to cover the +6.5 spread.
Titans +3.5 at Bears
While Chicago has generated buzz with Caleb Williams debuting as their quarterback, the Titans’ defense could pose a challenge, particularly in limiting big plays. Tennessee’s defense allowed the fifth-lowest quarterback rating in 2023, so Williams won’t have an easy time carving up their secondary right out of the gate.
On offense, Tennessee will lean on quarterback Will Levis, who will look to take advantage of Chicago’s defense, which allowed 31 passing touchdowns last season. The Titans will try to stretch the field against the Bears. Chicago was able to cover five of its final seven games last season, but Tennessee’s ability to limit opposing quarterbacks and force a defensive battle should keep the game close enough for the Titans to cover.
Tennessee has struggled on the road, losing 10 of their last 11 away games, which might raise some concerns. However, these early-season matchups can often be unpredictable, especially with a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams making his NFL debut. I think we’ll be watching two future greats at QB battling it out in a close contest.
Cowboys +2.5 at Browns
The Dallas Cowboys go into Cleveland as a +2.5 underdog this week. Despite Dallas’ offense being less potent on the road last season, averaging 23.3 points per game away compared to 30.1 at home, they still have enough firepower to score a ton of points. The Browns allowed only 13.9 points per game at home last season, but if the Cowboys offensive line can hold up, it could be difficult for Cleveland to contain Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb.
Cleveland, on the other hand, has some challenges on offense. Deshaun Watson didn’t take preseason snaps and has been inconsistent since his return to the NFL. I could see him starting slow in this game. Cleveland is also without Nick Chubb, which hurts their running game. The Browns also face possible injuries on the offensive line, making them vulnerable to pressure from Micah Parsons and the Cowboys’ defense. Parsons, in particular, could have a major impact against a potentially weakened line, and this pressure could significantly limit Cleveland’s ability to score.
Given Dallas’ strong record against AFC North teams and the edge provided by Parsons, I think the Cowboys have a good chance at winning this game.
