NFL Best Bets
This is my fourth year writing the Best Bets column for Gridiron Experts, which is quite impressive considering the Carolina Panthers have had four head coaches in that time. But then again, the Panthers have only won 24% of their games since 2022, while my winning percentage is 58% ATS over the last three seasons. In NFL terms, that’s Pro Bowl-level consistency, so naturally I considered holding out this season in hopes of a new contract. But, much like Micah Parsons, the owner was willing to trade me for peanuts, so I decided to report to the office and play out the remaining 17 years left on my contract.
Contract disputes aside, if you’re unfamiliar with this column, each week I pick 3 games that I feel have the best chance to cover the spread. I base my picks mostly on my betting model, which has proven to be successful. I also pay attention to line movement and where the public is betting, in addition to key injuries. Early in the season, the model is less reliable as there’s not much data available yet. There’s more guesswork from both bettors and sportsbooks and that’s where the best opportunities hide.
This week, the model points to 3 underdogs that carry sharp value. The lines have moved, the public has weighed in, and the numbers all point in the same direction. Let’s break it down.
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BEST BETS
New Orleans Saints (+6.5) vs Arizona Cardinals
This line tells a story all by itself. Arizona opened as a 4.5-point favorite, but heavy money came in on the Cardinals and pushed the spread all the way to –6.5. That two-point jump is significant, and it looks like an overcorrection. Instead of chasing steam, bettors get a buy-low opportunity on the Saints.
New Orleans will start second-year quarterback Spencer Rattler, who won the job outright in camp. He won’t have a perfect setup, though. Right tackle Trevor Penning has shed his walking boot and has a chance to play, but turf toe could limit his effectiveness. In the secondary, Alontae Taylor remains sidelined, taking away a key coverage option.
Even with those concerns, the model likes New Orleans. It gives the Saints a 58.1% chance to cover, a strong signal in any week but especially the first. Arizona has their own issues as well. Promising rookie defensive lineman Walter Nolen will miss time, leaving their front thinner than expected.
The all-time series between these teams is tied 16–16, but New Orleans has a 9–4 edge at home in the Dome. That home comfort matters, particularly for a young quarterback making his first season-opening start.
The betting splits reinforce the contrarian angle. On the moneyline, Arizona is getting 89% of tickets and 95% of the cash. But against the spread, the picture flips. Just 47% of bettors are on the Cardinals –6.5 while 53% are backing the Saints. That aligns with the model and confirms this is a resistance spot worth targeting.
Pick: Saints +6.5
Buffalo Bills (+1.5) vs Baltimore Ravens
If you’re looking for the strongest play on the board, it’s Buffalo. The Bills opened at +2 and immediately drew sharp money, which trimmed the line down to +1. That kind of early action often points to the right side, and the model agrees. Buffalo carries a 60.3% chance to cover in my model, the highest of any team this week.
The matchup supports it. Buffalo’s defense is built to contain mobile quarterbacks, and their front can keep Lamar Jackson bottled up more effectively than most teams. On the other side, Josh Allen and the Bills offense are efficient enough to move the ball and control pace. They don’t need to dominate, just keep Baltimore uncomfortable and stay in range to win outright.
The betting splits are where it gets interesting. On the moneyline, Baltimore has only 46% of tickets but 90% of the handle, showing that bigger wagers expect the Ravens to win outright. The spread action is much more balanced, and the line moved toward Buffalo anyway. That’s the sharper tell.
In other words, the moneyline shows confidence in Baltimore to win, but the spread movement shows respect for Buffalo keeping it close. When that aligns with the model, it’s worth taking.
Pick: Bills +1.5
Chicago Bears (+1.5) vs Minnesota Vikings
No Week 1 spread has been more volatile than this one. It opened with Chicago at +1.5, swung to Bears –1.5, and has since come all the way back to +1.5. That three-point swing through zero is rare because it means both teams have been favored at different points. When the market can’t settle on a side, it usually signals that the teams are evenly matched, and in those cases the underdog tends to carry extra value. On top of that, divisional home underdogs in Week 1 are 23-6 against the spread since 2009.
The Bears’ defense is already thin. Terell Smith is out for the season, and Jaylon Johnson’s status is still in doubt. That’s a problem with Justin Jefferson on the other side. But Minnesota isn’t flush with options either. Jordan Addison is suspended for the first three games, and Rondale Moore is out for the year with another knee injury. Jefferson is still elite, but he’ll be carrying the load alone in Week 1.
That sets the stage for Caleb Williams. He doesn’t need to be spectacular, he just needs to stay within himself, manage the game, and let Ben Johnson’s scheme do the work. Soldier Field games are often low scoring and messy, and messy games make every point more valuable.
The model gives Chicago a 56.3% chance to cover. The public is divided here too. On the moneyline, Minnesota has 66% of tickets and 73% of the handle, but on the spread, it’s Chicago with 53% of bets compared to 47% for Minnesota. The money still leans Vikings (56% to 44%), but the Bears are drawing solid public support at the number.
After the line movement rollercoaster, we’re back where it started. That gives bettors another chance to grab Chicago at +1.5 in a spot where volatility and uncertainty have already created opportunity.
Pick: Bears +1.5
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