NFL Best Bets
Another week, another winning record. We went 2-1 last week, improving our season total to a rock-solid 34-19-1 (64.8%). We nailed the Commanders covering against Tampa Bay, as Jayden Daniels turned in another electric performance to lead Washington to victory. Over in Houston, CJ Stroud lit up the Chargers with a league-leading passing performance to cash another win for us. The Broncos couldn’t get it done against the Bills, but with Bo Nix showing flashes of brilliance, Denver fans have plenty to be excited about.
The divisional round is here and of the four matchups, only one has a spread under a touchdown. I think it’s fair to question whether Vegas might be leaning too heavily on public perception for some of these lines. Is Kansas City really as dominant as their 15-2 record suggests, or will their knack for winning close games finally catch up to them in the playoffs? And can Detroit’s banged-up defense really contain a high-powered offense, or will injuries ultimately derail their run?
On the other side of the coin, the Eagles feel like they’re flying under the radar. Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley have been unstoppable lately, and with Philly’s elite defense leading the charge, they might just be the most complete team left in the field.
Then there’s Baltimore at Buffalo, the clear game of the week. Two MVP candidates squaring off in what feels like it should be the AFC Championship game. It’s hard to imagine the winner not being favored next week, regardless of the opponent. Let’s break it all down and get on to this week’s best bets.
[the_ad id=’104525′]BEST BETS
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
The divisional round kicks off Saturday with the Texans visiting the Chiefs in a rematch of their Week 16 contest. Kansas City won that game 27-19, but I’m backing Houston +8.5 to keep things competitive. The Texans are coming off a dominant 32-12 win over the Chargers, where they forced four interceptions and held Los Angeles to just 50 rushing yards. Under DeMeco Ryans, Houston’s defense ranks fifth in total yards allowed and third on third downs, setting up a compelling matchup against Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City’s third-ranked offense on third downs.
The Chiefs have struggled to cover big numbers. Kansas City is 0-6-1 ATS as a favorite of six or more points this season, consistently letting teams hang around late. Houston’s defense, paired with C.J. Stroud’s efficient passing and Joe Mixon’s steady ground game, can exploit these tendencies. If the Texans can avoid costly turnovers, their pass defense, ranked sixth in the NFL, matches up well against Mahomes and a Kansas City receiving corps that has been inconsistent outside of Travis Kelce.
The Chiefs haven’t played a meaningful snap in three weeks, and while Andy Reid excels off a bye, rust could be a factor early. I’m not calling for the upset, but this line feels inflated. Give me the Texans +8.5 to keep it closer than the oddsmakers expect.
Washington Commanders at Detriot Lions
The Commanders head to Detroit as 9.5-point underdogs, but this team has proven time and time again that they won’t go quietly. Washington hasn’t lost by more than eight points since Week 1 and comes into this game riding a six-game winning streak after a dramatic wild-card win over Tampa Bay. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels continues to rise to the occasion, throwing for 268 yards and two touchdowns last week while adding value on the ground. Against a Lions defense that has struggled against mobile quarterbacks, Daniels’ dual-threat ability will be critical.
Detroit’s offense, led by Jared Goff, is undeniably elite, ranking first in scoring and EPA per play. But injuries on defense have made the Lions vulnerable, as they’ve allowed 30+ points in three of their last five games. The Commanders, with Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, and Austin Ekeler, have the firepower to exploit these weaknesses and the play-calling to sustain drives that keep Detroit’s explosive offense off the field.
The Lions are well-rested and likely to advance, but this is a big spread for a divisional-round matchup. Washington has the tools to keep it close, especially with Daniels’ ability to extend plays and convert in high-leverage moments. Take the points with the Commanders and expect a high-scoring, tightly contested game.
LA Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles return home this Sunday as 6-point favorites against the Rams, and Philadelphia is built to dominate this matchup again. Back in Week 12, the Eagles dismantled the Rams 37-20, controlling the trenches on both sides of the ball. Saquon Barkley ran for 255 yards, while the defense sacked Matthew Stafford five times and held Los Angeles to an 0-for-8 mark on third down. That performance showed why the Eagles are one of the league’s most complete teams, and nothing has changed to suggest a different outcome this week.
The Rams are coming off a wild-card win over Minnesota, but that game said more about the Vikings’ collapse than L.A.’s resurgence. The Rams’ defense racked up nine sacks against a shaky Minnesota offensive line, but they’ll face a completely different challenge against the Eagles, who have the NFL’s best offensive line. Philadelphia’s dominance in the trenches will allow Barkley to exploit a Rams defense that ranks 21st against the run, while Jalen Hurts can attack an injury-depleted secondary when necessary.
Stafford and the Rams’ offense, meanwhile, will be tested by an Eagles defense that ranks first in EPA per drive since their bye week. Stafford was under constant pressure in the first meeting, and with adverse weather conditions expected, things won’t get any easier. The Rams have struggled to put up points against strong defenses, averaging just 16 points in their three previous games before the playoffs.
Philadelphia is 8-1 at home and 13-1 since their bye week for a reason; they’re simply the more balanced, dominant team. L.A.’s emotional playoff push has been admirable, but the short week, cross-country travel, and matchup disadvantages make this too tall a task. Lay the 6 points and trust the Eagles to soar into the NFC Championship Game with another convincing win.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
The last game features a potential classic as the Ravens visit the Bills in a battle of MVP candidates. This is the game I’m least confident in, but I’m backing Baltimore, leaning on their balance and late-season dominance.
The Ravens have been the NFL’s most complete team since their Week 13 bye, winning five straight by at least two touchdowns. Their defense has been elite, ranking third in EPA per play and second in success rate since Week 10. Meanwhile, Derrick Henry continues to dominate the postseason, averaging over five yards per carry across his playoff career. He and Lamar Jackson will look to replicate their Week 4 success when Baltimore crushed Buffalo 35-10, rushing for 240 yards. Buffalo’s defense has improved since then, but their league-worst EPA per play allowed over the last month remains a concern.
Josh Allen and the Bills are a force at home, going 9-0 this season while averaging 33.9 points per game at Highmark Stadium. Allen’s ability to extend plays and exploit defenses with his arm and legs makes him one of the most dangerous players in the league. However, the Ravens allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards to QBs this season, and their disciplined pass rush can limit Allen’s impact on the ground.
This game will likely be decided in the trenches. Baltimore’s physicality, both offensively and defensively, gives them a slight edge in controlling the clock and tempo. I’d probably stay away from this game, but if forced to make a choice, I’d go with the Ravens.
