NFC / AFC Championship Round Picks
This week, we have the conference championships. The Commanders are the only surprise among the four teams that are left. As much as experience matters in high pressure situations, sometimes playing without the burden of high expectations can work in a team’s favor. Youthful confidence can be very powerful. The other three teams, Buffalo, Kansas City, and Philadelphia, all have lots of experience in the playoffs and should be battle-tested and ready for anything.
Last week, we had our first losing week since November, going 1-2-1. The Eagles-Rams game ended in a push after the Rams’ late rally. The Chiefs-Texans loss was a tough one, but we knew going in that refs are part of the game, and you’ve got to factor that in, so there won’t be any crying about bad calls in this column. I flagged the Bills-Ravens pick as low confidence, so hopefully, you avoided it. The bright spot was Washington, making easy work of Detroit in a win I didn’t expect to be so lopsided.
Even with the stumble, our season record sits at 35-21-2, a profitable 62.5%. It’s been a great year overall, so let’s try to nail these last two weeks and finish strong.
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Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are built for this moment. Their postseason journey has been a model of consistency, with a decisive win over the Packers and a hard-fought victory against the Rams. Leading the charge is Saquon Barkley, who has been nearly unstoppable this postseason, racking up 325 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Against a Washington defense that has struggled all year to stop the run, Barkley is primed for another dominant performance.
Yes, the Commanders have been this year’s Cinderella team, shocking the Bucs and dismantling the top-seeded Lions. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has been poised beyond his years, leading Washington to seven straight wins. But this matchup is different. Philadelphia knows Washington well, and their defense has already forced Daniels into three interceptions across their two regular-season meetings. The Eagles’ defensive front, led by Jalen Carter, will put relentless pressure on Daniels, especially with Washington missing their top offensive lineman, Sam Cosmi.
Jalen Hurts’ health is worth monitoring, but even a slightly hobbled Hurts brings leadership, composure, and playoff experience that far outweighs Daniels’ raw talent. Hurts has been careful with the football, and Philadelphia’s offense has the balance and firepower to exploit Washington’s weaknesses. In their two regular-season games, the Eagles rushed for a combined 377 yards against the Commanders, who allowed over 1,900 rushing yards during the regular season. Washington’s inability to stop the run will likely be their undoing again.
The Commanders are a great story, but this is where their magic runs out. Philadelphia’s superior roster, playoff experience, and home-field advantage are too much for Washington to overcome. Expect Barkley to carry the load, the Eagles’ defense to frustrate Daniels, and Philadelphia to control the game. The Eagles cover and win decisively.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
The Bills and Chiefs square off yet again in the playoffs, and while Kansas City has had the upper hand in recent history, this year feels different. Buffalo’s 30-21 regular-season win over the Chiefs wasn’t just another victory; it was a statement. The Bills forced two Patrick Mahomes interceptions, controlled the game’s tempo, and, most importantly, played to win. Sean McDermott’s decision to go for it on a critical fourth down, leading to a Josh Allen touchdown, showed that Buffalo has learned from past playoff heartbreaks: you can’t beat Mahomes by playing it safe.
Josh Allen is the centerpiece of this matchup. He’s been unstoppable when it matters most, combining elite decision-making with his ability to dominate on the ground. Allen has averaged 56 rushing yards per game in eight career meetings with the Chiefs, regularly using his legs to exploit a defense that struggles against mobile quarterbacks. That dual-threat capability makes Buffalo incredibly hard to defend, and Allen’s six rushing touchdowns in his last five playoff games highlight just how deadly he becomes in the postseason.
Defensively, the Bills bring a unit capable of limiting Kansas City’s firepower. Buffalo has forced five turnovers in their last three meetings with the Chiefs, including two in this season’s victory. They’ll need to do it again against Mahomes, who remains the best in the game at making something out of nothing. But the Chiefs’ offense hasn’t been the same explosive force this year, averaging fewer yards per play than Buffalo and finishing 9th in offensive EPA compared to the Bills’ 2nd. Kansas City’s reliance on their defense has carried them this far, but against a balanced and aggressive team like Buffalo, that might not be enough.
Yes, Arrowhead Stadium is a massive advantage for Kansas City, but the Bills have been tested on the road and have the tools to control this game. They’ve been running the ball effectively all postseason, and with the Chiefs allowing nearly 170 rushing yards per game over their last three, Buffalo’s ground attack could dictate the pace. Combine that with Allen’s ability to make clutch plays, and the Bills are primed to finally get past their playoff nemesis.
This will be a tight, back-and-forth battle, as it always is between these teams, but the Bills’ balance, aggressive mindset, and superior metrics on both sides of the ball give them the edge. Take the points with Buffalo, and don’t be surprised when they leave Arrowhead with a ticket to New Orleans.
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