NFL Coaching and OL Breakdown
Hey all, and welcome to the final coaching and O-line series breakdown. This stuff really helps me to narrow down where I want to invest in the 2024 season. I hope it has helped you as well. Once the season rolls around, I’ll focus on some stuff for DFS. Today, however, we close this series out with the NFC West.
OLine and Coaching Series Quick Links
- AFC North Breakdown
- AFC East Breakdown
- AFC South Breakdown
- AFC West Breakdown
- NFC North Breakdown
- NFC East Breakdown
- NFC South Breakdown
- NFC West Breakdown
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 6.5
- HC: Jonathan Gannon
- OC: Drew Petzing
- DC: Nick Rallis
Petzing introduced a West Coast offense in Arizona last season. The passing routes are short yardage ones with lots of RPOs and play action. The team used the TE position more than most, which helped lead to the the Trey McBride breakout season. This system worked well for mobile QBs Kyler Murray and Joshua Dobbs. Adding the threat of QB runs has opened up the running game as well. One area for improvement though is with outside passing plays, which is where Marvin Harrison, Jr should help.
The Cardinals defense was particularly bad at getting to the QB and stopping the run in 2023. They have made some personnel changes to address this, but they could still struggle in this area. Their base defense is 3-4, but they often added to the line to try to mask their weaknesses. The secondary was not much better as they struggled with injuries and a new scheme. They have also brought in new personnel, but there are probably going to be struggle on defense again this year.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Paris Johnson / Kelvin Beachum
- LG: Evan Brown / Isaiah Adams
- C: Hjalte Froholdt
- RG: Will Hernandez
- RT: Jonah Williams
The Cardinals made some nice strides under first year line coach Klayton Adams with their offensive linemen in 2023, particularly with run blocking.
Johnson was a high first round draft pick in 2023. While he wasn’t horrible, some improvement is expected in year 2.
Brown is sliding over to LG after playing center fairly horribly. Adams was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2024 draft and may end up taking over for Brown if this is not a good change for him.
Forholdt is a starting caliber center. He’s a solid run and pass blocker.
Hernandez was highly touted when drafted by the Gmen, but he never lived up to it in NY. His first year in Arizona last season showed some significant improvement, especially in pass blocking.
Williams requested a trade when he was with Cincinnati in 2023 but elected to stay with the team despite a positional change. Here in 2024, he has opted to sign with the Cardinals. He is not ranked highly by Pro Football Focus, so perhaps the change of scene and coaches will be good for him, but he could be a weak point along the line.
Verdict
Kyle Murray’s rushing ability should be enough to pay off his ADP of 75th overall, QB 10. I’m don’t like putting my trust in this man, but I’m trying to take my bias out of it and realize that this is a very good offensive scheme for him. He has been injury prone though, so banking on a full season out of him may not be wise.
James Conner and Trey Benson are very much on my radar. The Cardinals took Benson in the 3rd with the hope that he can help spell Conner now and again and perhaps take over as RB1 as James is approaching the dreaded age of 30. Conner is going at pick 59, RB 18 and Benson gets drafted at ADP 103, a good spot to handcuff Conner if you go this route.
Harrison is going in round 2. I don’t think I’m doing it. Harrison should help this offense, but the Cardinals were just not good at throwing to his position last season. He is super talented and should be fine, but I don’t want to spend the draft capital on him. If he fell to me in round 3, then maybe.
Tre McBride is fine to take. His ADP is 47, TE 3. I’m eyeing other TEs as Dobbs threw to the TE position more than Murray did in 2023. McBride should be fine, but I expect smaller numbers this time around.
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 8.5
- HC: Sean McVay
- OC: Mike LaFleur
- DC: Chris Shula
McVay and LaFleur will continue to use a ton of 3 WR sets to stretch the defense out and open up running lanes for their backs. This is a West Coast offense that uses a WR or 2 or 3 to run deep routes that opens up passing routes and space underneath. The run game is very sophisticated, which typically leads to fantasy production from whichever RB is the starter that given week. It’s a mix of zone and gap, and McVay is very good at playing chess against whatever defense he is up against and will try, often successfully, to surprise said defense with a running scheme they were not expecting.
Raheem Morris is gone to Atlanta, so LA welcomes in Chris Shula who is being promoted from linebacker coach. The defense will be a 3-4 base, but adjustments are going to be necessary with Aaron Donald’s retirement. The Rams will likely experiment with a variety of blitz packages and add players along the line of scrimmage in order to figure out what works best. In the secondary they will use both man and zone and attempt to disguise what the defense will be doing prior to the snap. They haven’t been great in recent seasons, but LA is hoping the addition of Tre’Davious White from Buffalo will help.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Alaric Jackson
- LG: Jonah Jackson
- C: Steve Avila
- RG: Kevin Dotson
- RT: Rob Havenstein
The law firm of Jackson & Jackson earned similar ratings from PFF. They’re both middle of the road starting NFL linemen and should continue to be serviceable in 2024.
Avila is moving back to center from guard as he played center in college. He’s a better pass blocker than run blocker.
Dotson is one of the best linemen in football. PFF ranked him as the best run blocking guard in football.
Havenstein is also very solid at RT. He’s an all-star pass blocker but could use some improvement in run blocking.
There is not much depth here, so should injuries start happening to this line, the Rams offense will likely suffer.
Verdict
There is a serious chance that the Rams end up in a lot of shoot outs in 2024, which could start as early as week 1 against the Lions, but do not forget their week 2 matchup against the Cardinals. This is something I will be eyeing in DFS.
Stafford is going at pick 138, which is QB 20. He could be a QB1 this season, so I have zero problem taking him at this ADP as it could be a huge steal.
Careful with Kyren Williams who is going at pick 15 and RB 7. The Rams took Blake Corum for a reason, and passing may take precedence if the Rams end up playing from behind in games.
Cooper Kupp is WR1 here. Yes, he’s missed games due to injury, but check this out: in the 5 games that Kupp was out, Puka Nacua averaged 114 yards and nearly 23 fantasy points per game. When Kupp was playing, Puka averaged 76 yards and 15 fantasy points per game. I see no reason why Nacua is going off at pick 13 while Kupp is going at 42.
Players like Higbee (who is on the PUP list), Demarcus Robinson, and Tutu Atwell will have some spike weeks, but the primary guys are the 2 RBs and the 2 WRs in this offense.
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 11.5
- HC: Kyle Shanahan
- OC: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
- DC: Nick Sorensen
- Assistant Defensive Coach: Brandon Staley
For the 3rd year in a row, there is no OC for the San Francisco 49ers. Shanahan will fill that role himself. Far be it for me to argue the strategy behind that since this team went to the Super Bowl last year. This is a West Coast offense that attempts to get the football out of Brock Purdy’s grasp as quickly as possible. There a lot of screens, play action, quick twitch routes, and check downs to the RB that are designed to put the playmakers in space to maximize yards after the catch. In the run game, Shanahan has used a zone blocking scheme that asks linemen to be flexible and mobile. It is perfect for Christian McCaffrey, which is a huge reason why the Niners went out and got him. This is an offense that relies on flexibility and asks its star players to lineup in various positions on the field so as to confuse the defense.
Despite helping to bring this team to the Super Bowl, DC Steve Wilks was let go and Nick Sorenson was promoted. Not going to lie, this situation is blowing my mind. They let go a Super Bowl level DC, promoted from within, but then brought on former Charger HC Brandon Staley to help with the defense. Staley will likely work mostly with the secondary and likely use a lot of man coverage. Being a former LB coach, Sorensen will work mostly with the front group and try to find a way to make up for the loss of Arik Armstead who is now in Jacksonville. I’m not sure what to expect here, but I know I am not comfortable, and I will not be drafting the 49ers DST at their #1 overall DST price tag.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Trent Wiliams / Jaylen Moore
- LG: Aaron Banks / Dominick Puni
- C: Jake Brendel
- RG: Jon Feliciano / Spencer Buford
- RT: Colton McKivitz
The big issue with this offensive line is Trent Williams who, as of this writing, has yet to report to camp as he holds out for a new contract. Widely considered to be one of if not the best LTs in all of football, Williams is a huge factor in the success of the 49er offense. Moore is no slouch though, so I’m curious as to what San Francisco does here with what, in my humble opinion, is a more important contract dispute than Brandon Aiyuk’s is.
LG is going to be a preseason battle between Banks and rookie Puni. Banks is mediorce, so if Puni can be better than that then the job could be his.
Brendel is a decent enough center. He’s a better run blocker than pass blocker.
Feliciano had a very good year, especially with run blocking, in 2023. He has had injury issues though, so Buford, who is decent, could step in.
McKivitz did decently in his first featured role in the NFL last year. The 49ers hope for some improvement, but the signs McKivitz showed were promising.
Verdict
I get that the industry is waiting for the other shoe to drop with CMC because he gets injured and destroys his #1 overall selection. If I get the first overall pick I will have a decision to make, but if I take CMC, I will take Elijah Mitchell at pick 170 to ensure I still get production from the best rushing attack in football.
I’m fine with Brock Purdy at pick 99 and QB 11. He is a perfect fit for this scheme.
Deebo Samuel is also on my radar. I wish he wouldn’t get as hurt as he does, but there was a reason why he got an extension and Aiyuk has not. Deebo is pick 27, which might be a tad high, but he’s likely my WR2 at that spot.
I don’t like Kittle in seasonal. There will be 3 or 4 weeks when he goes bananas, but there will be 5 weeks where he has less than 5 fantasy points. I’ll spend my TE money elsewhere.
I really like Ricky Pearsall’s pedigree and can see him benefitting a little if Aiyuk does not stay in the Bay Area. If Aiyuk does depart though, the ADP of all of the receivers will change, so just be mindful as it’s possible they can go too high.
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 7.5
- HC: Mike Macdonald
- OC: Ryan Grubb
- DC: Aden Durde
Our final team is the revamped Seahawks, with Pete Carroll stepping away as head coach. This is actually the team I’m most excited to talk about, as things are going to be quite different in Seattle.
New HC Macdonald will mostly be involved on the defense. OC Grubb is coming to Seattle from the college ranks of Washington. As the head of the offense there, Washington led the nation in passing yards per game, first downs per game, and third down percentage. They were also 7th in total points scored. This Seattle offense is going to play with pace and be focused on throwing the football. This is going to be an innovative offense for the NFL. It is not West Coast nor even a vertical offense; it’s a version of something called Air Raid, which has not been very popular in the NFL over the last decade. The Seahawks will be playing quickly, testing the endurance of their offensive line with quick calls out the huddle, hurry-up schemes, and movement along the line after the ball is snapped. There will be 3, 4, and even 5 WR sets with pre-snap movement that attempts to get the defense to show what sort of coverage they are playing. Once Grubb knows the coverage, specific routes will be run to isolate a receiver in an advantageous one-on-one matchup. Grubb has been quite good at this chess match, so we shall see how opposing defensive coordinators do.
There will still be a run game here. It will be a very diverse zone blocking and run scheme, which will hopefully confuse defenses. Grubb hands the ball off out of the shotgun more than most, so what may appear to be obvious passing plays may not be.
Macdonald gets his head coaching gig after serving as DC for the Baltimore Ravens. He will use a 3-4 base but will add a 4th pass rusher from anywhere on the field, which is designed to keep offenses guessing. The secondary will be a variety of coverages and Macdonald will show one coverage before the snap before alternating to something completely different once the ball is in the QB’s hands. This is quite the change from the way things were done under Carroll, so there will likely be growing pains as the defense adjusts.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Charles Cross
- LG: Laken Tomlinson
- C: Olusegun Oluwatimi
- RG: Anthony Bradford
- RT: Abraham Lucas / George Fant
Like many, the Seahawks offensive line battled injuries in 2023.
Cross is in his 3rd year and had a decent sophomore campaign last season. He played in 14 games and could use some more devlelopment.
Tomlinson is a new arrival coming in from the Jets. He was pretty bad there but had some good seasons when he was with the 49ers. The Seahawks hope he can return to those ways.
Oluwatimi is a very good pass blocker but needs to make some strides with his run blocking.
Bradford is probably the worst player on this line. He gets a rank of 78th overall from PFF.
Lucas was unable to make any strides last year as the injury bug hit him. In fact, he is still on the PUP list. Fant is a capable backup and may be the better of the two.
Verdict
The elephant in the room is Geno Smith. While his career was resurrected here in Seattle, this offensive scheme will be much different, and whether or not Geno can adjust will make or break the fantasy production here. I wouldn’t put it out of the realm of possibilities for Sam Howell to take over if Geno has to be benched. Smith isn’t going until pick 171, QB 26. Howell isn’t being drafted at all.
DK Metcalf has the potential to really thrive in this offense. This scheme rewards receivers who can make contested catches and win one-on-one battles. DK has the size, skills, and athleticism to do this well. He is pick 39, WR 20. He will be a higher pick next year.
JSN could ascend the depth chart and takeover as WR2, as the scheme fit him a little better than it does Tyler Lockett. Definitely a gamblem but it seems the fantasy community is wise to this as Smith-Njigba is going off at pick 108 while Lockett is 130.
Kenneth Walker is pick 43, RB 15. I prefer Kamara right there for this season, but Walker should not be hurting you at this ADP. Zach Charbonnet will spell Walker at times though.
Thank you for reading! The process of getting all this information into a series of articles is time consuming but fun and certainly helpful in ascertaining value and understanding how players are likely to be used. Good luck in your drafts!
