NFL Coaching and OL Breakdown
Hey all, and welcome to the penultimate article of the team-by-team coaching and O-line series. Today, we focus on the NFC South.
OLine and Coaching Series Quick Links
- AFC North Breakdown
- AFC East Breakdown
- AFC South Breakdown
- AFC West Breakdown
- NFC North Breakdown
- NFC East Breakdown
- NFC South Breakdown
- NFC West Breakdown
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 9.5
- HC: Raheem Morris
- OC: Zac Robinson
- DC: Jimmy Lake
Raheem Morris is making his second stint as a full-time head coach and serving his second stint in the Falcons organization. When Dan Quinn was fired in 2020, Morris stepped in to be interim head coach. He was not given the job permanently, as Art Smith landed that role. Morris went to the Rams and served as DC for a Super Bowl-winning team. Now he is back, having beat out Bill Belichick for the position.
OC Robinson comes with Morris from LA and has been working with Sean McVay for the last few years. Robinson is going to institute a West Coast offense that features short throws and the run game to set up the occasional deep shot, something Kirk Cousins has been doing for years in Minnesota. The Falcons will feature a lot of 3 WR sets so as to stretch out the field and open up the run game. Unlike Art Smith, it will behoove Morris and Robinson to keep this offense simple and to play toward its strengths.
New HC Lake is an interesting story. He most recently served as a defensive assistant for the Rams. (Noticing a theme yet?) However, that was his first job in a few years after he was let go by the Washington Huskies in the wake of him shoving one of his own players. There is going to be a lot of differentiation along the defensive line. The base setup will be 3-4, but sometimes there will be 4 on the line while at other times there will be 2. College analysts lauded Lake’s secondary. His zone scheme puts much responsibility on the LBs and the secondary. When operating well, the defense will make decisions as the play is happening. The defense will make “real time” adjustments depending on what the offense is doing. This will take time, but once the defenders get it, they will be good.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Jake Matthews
- LG: Matthew Bergeron
- C: Drew Dalman
- RG: Chris Lindstrom
- RT: Kaleb McGary
Despite the coaching staff overhaul, line coach Dwayne Ledford has stayed on and will continue the outstanding work that has been done to improve this line since he took over a few years ago.
Matthews mans the blind side and is quite good at pass blocking though his run blocking could use improvement.
Bergeron was a rookie last season who won this job and played nearly 100% of snaps. There were ups and downs of course, but he will be the starter again, and the Falcons hope for some more development as the year goes on.
Dalman is an exceptional run blocker and capable pass blocker.
Lindstrom is an all-star who has been given the #1 rank at guard by Pro Football Focus.
McGary is solid at RT. He’s a little better at run blocking than pass, but I’m being nit picky.
Verdict
Kirk Cousins is pick 127, QB 19. What? He’s like the perfect backup QB. He’s been playing in this exact scheme for the last few years.
Drake London is WR 11, pick 19 in the 2nd round. While that may seem high, primary WRs in this offense like Justin Jefferson and Cooper Kupp have been perennial 1st round picks. Am I going out on a limb and saying London will become household names like JJ and Kupp? No. He is being drafted near his ceiling, which if he hits it, will make this pick worth it.
Our
Darnell Mooney is interesting. Consider him to be something like the Jordan Addison of this offense. He’s getting picked up around pick 169. Not bad for someone who’s an injury away from being the primary receiver here.
This is the beginning of the Bijan Robinson era. We will be having conversations in 2025 about whether or not he should be the #1 overall pick in fantasy.
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 5.5
- HC: Dave Canales
- OC: Brad Idzik
- DC: Ejiro Evero
Call 2023 a big swing and a miss for me in regards to the Carolina Panthers. I wasn’t big into Bryce Young or anything, but I was huge into Miles Sanders and his RB coach Duce Staley. That didn’t work out for me, nor did it for the offensive coaching staff because they are all gone.
HC Canales is going to be the game day play caller for the offense. Last year, as OC for the Bucs, he helped to resurrect Baker Mayfield’s career. Prior to that he was a long term assistant with the Seahawks. Canales is bringing both run game coordinator Harold Goodwin and line coach Joe Gilbert with him from Tampa, and they hope to install a West Coast, quick-step-drop-back-get-the-ball-to-the-primary-read kind of offense. There could be some sneaky fantasy points available in the Panther offense in 2024.
Evero had stayed on for his second year in Carolina. He will continue his use of 3-4 and constantly try to disguise where rusher #4 is coming from. Evero’s defense was not very good a generating pressure in 2023, nor we they good against the run, so he should probably start remedying those as he could be scapegoated at the conclusion of this season. Like most DCs, Evero wants versatility in his secondary so that they can display, adjust, and confuse opposing offenses. Evero wants to be aggressive with his secondary to cause turnovers. This didn’t go very well last season, so hopefully they can turn it around in 2024.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Ikem Ekwonu
- LG: Damien Lewis
- C: Austin Corbett
- RG: Robert Hunt
- RT: Taylor Moton
One of the things that really hampered Bryce Young in his rookie season was the god awful play of his offensive line. It basiclly could not have gone worse as they were decently ranked heading into the 2023 year. While injuries played a factor, the overall play induced Carolina to invest $153 million in Damien Lewis who is here from Seattle and Robert Hunt from Miami. Hunt is the specific win for the Panthers with PFF giving him a rank of 7th overall.
Ekwonu is still young and learning but has a nice pedigree. The Panthers seem committed to making him work at LT…for now.
Corbett is moving to center to accommodate Hunt at RG. PFF’s rank is tough to interpret since he was ranked as a guard. Still, an 85th overall does not inspire confidence. He was recovering from an ACL injury, so Carolina is hoping he can return to his earlier form.
Moton has been steady at the RT position, though he isn’t one of the best or anything.
There has clearly been some upgrades in this o-line, but there also isn’t much depth here, so Young could experience similar issues if his protectors start dropping.
Verdict
Diontae Johnson is likely one of the beneficiaries of this scheme. There will be a lot of short, quick twitch targets in this offense. Johnson was acquired specifically for this task. He is pick 87, WR 39. I really like that, especially in PPR formats.
Adam Thielen is going as pick 162. I get it, he’s Old Man Thielen at this point. I still expect Young to lean on him from time to time, and for Thielen to show up in some GPP winning lineups, but his consistence in this offensive scheme is not something to count on.
Xavier Legette has the potential to be what Terrace Marshall has not been, which is to say a deep threat. However, he has the ability to do multiple things within an offense, so I’m curious as to how this coaching staff uses him. Legette is going at pick 152, WR 64. I don’t mind swinging for the fences there.
The RB situation here is tough to analyze. Miles Sanders is still being paid a healthy contract to be here though most depth charts list him as RB3 behind Chuba Hubbard and rookie Jonathon Brooks. The rookie is the player to invest here for the future. He is pick 82, RB 28. In redraft leagues I think that’s a little high as he is likely part of a committee in year one. Though he will eventually inherit the role Rachaad White had in the Bucs offense last season. Hubbard is going at pick 134, and Sanders is being treated like he has leprosy at pick 247. I find it curious that the player everyone is prioritizing is currently not practicing due to a non football injury.
I’m not ready to draft Bryce Young, even at QB 29.
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 7.5
- HC: Dennis Allen
- OC: Klint Kubiak
- Senior Offensive Assistant: Rick Dennison
- DC: Joe Woods
I have to start with the OC position here because for the first time in about 15 years the Saints will be without Pete Carmichael at the position. This is where I truly believe taking the time to do this research is worth it. Most of the players and coaches in this offense are the same, so why should fantasy managers expect anything different? I submit Klint Kubiak and Rick Dennison as the reason why. Kubiak and Dennison will install a run first West Coast based offense. There will be a lot of pre-snap motion, play action, and general misdirection, but the focus here will be running the ball. This duo will use a zone block running scheme, and they have been doing it for years. For those of you who remember Arian Foster, then you know of what I speak. From a passing perspective, Derek Carr’s deep shots from a year ago are going to be far less frequent. The West Coast offense, which I hope you have gleaned from what I have written, is a short yardage, quick passing offense with limited but hopefully effective shots down the field.
Allen will continue to be involved on the defensive side of the ball and utilize a 4-3/4-6 defense. To help make this scheme more effective, the Saints made an under the radar signing of Chase Young. While he’s disappointed in Washington and San Fran, the Saints hope he’ll be the guy to unlock Allen’s scheme to its most effectiveness. DC Woods’ bigger influence is with this secondary. Like most defensive coordinators, Woods wants man and zone versatility from his defensive backs. Getting this overall young group to execute has been a challenge for Woods thus far, but this is year 2 for this defense in this scheme.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Tailese Fuaga / Trevor Penning
- LG: Nick Saldiveri / Lucas Patrick
- C: Erick McCoy / Lucas Patrick
- RG: Cesar Ruiz / Lucas Patrick
- RT: Ryan Ramczyk / Trevor Penning
There’s a lot going on with this group as we head into 2024. A piece of good news is that Doug Marrone is returning, despite a down season from this group, and the Saints have made moves to try and make this a better overall unit.
The Saints took Fuaga with the 14th overall pick in the 2024 draft. He’s an Oregon State product, and the hope is that they can pencil him right in a LT. Rookies are rookies, so there will likely be growing pains.
Saldiveri was drafted in 2023 in the 4th round. He had a year to learn from the coaches and other players in the organization. They want him to start, but he is dealing with an injury that may enable Patrick to overtake him as a starter. Patrick is a veteran; at 31 years old he provides a versatile presence who can step in where need be.
McCoy is the best part of the offensive line. He’s a very good run blocker.
Ruiz was selected by these Saints in 2020 in the first round, and they seem to be unable to quit him. With a PFF ranking of 81, you would think the writing on the wall would be there.
Ramczyk has been a staple at RT for years in New Orleans. However, he’s been dealing with constant knee issues and may or may not even play in 2024. His status is why the Saints went tackle early in the draft and may have to start Penning at RT instead. Penning is having similar issues as Ruiz, which is to say that he just isn’t improving the way the Saints want him to.
Verdict
Derek Carr is probably going to have a reduction in his fantasy stats this year. He’s being drafted as QB 27 which is 3 less spots from where he finished in 2023. At this point, Carr is more of a DFS play in potential spike weeks.
Alvin Kamara is going off at pick 45, RB 16. That’s quite appropriate though I would urge those in PPR leagues to expect more running and less receptions this year. I know Jamaal Williams is still here, but don’t discount Kendre Miller.
Chris Olave is very much the WR you want from this offense. He is the one with the route tree that is suited for the style of offense that will be employed in New Orleans. He is going off the board around pick 24, at the end of the 2nd round.
A.T. Perry and Rashid Shaheed cannot be counted on from a week-to-week perspective here.
Taysom Hill is still on this team. Not going to lie, I have no idea how Kubiak will employ him, if at all.
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 7.5
- HC: Todd Bowles
- OC: Liam Coen
- DC: Kacy Rodgers / Larry Foote
On offense this will be Liam Coen’s first year as OC of the Bucs as Dave Canales is gone to Carolina (in my mind). Coen is yet another person who has worked under Sean McVay and will install a West Coast offense that features short (sigh) ….I think you all get this idea by now. One major difference here between Coen and Canales could be encouraging Baker to take more deep shots per game. Otherwise this will be a very similar offense for Baker and company. Another change will be in the run game. Coen will experiment with all kinds of blocking and run game schemes to try to figure out what works best with Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, and the offensive line.
On defense, like last year, this will mostly be the Todd Bowles show as Rodgers will focus on coaching to stop the run while Foote will focus on stopping the pass. Bowles will take their findings to construct his defense. The base defense will be 3-4 so long as Vita Vea is capable of taking the field. The defense will blitz frequently and it will come from every area of the defense. The secondary will use a mix of zone and man.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Tristan Wirfs
- LG: Ben Bredson
- C: Graham Barton / Robert Hainsey
- RG: Cody Mauch
- RT: Luke Goedeke
There’s some good and some bad here.
Wirfs is one of the better LTs in the NFL. He is particularly good at pass blocking but is no slouch at run blocking either. He just signed a 5 year extension which puts him in the upper tier of LTs in the league.
Bredson and Mauch are the weak spots along the line as they have not been good run blockers. The Bucs basically have done nothing to address this.
Barton was selected in the first round, 26th overall in the 2024 draft. Ideally he will replace Hainsey who was one of the worst starting centers in the NFL last season. However, he is still here in case Barton can’t hang in year one.
Goedeke is a homegrown talent here for Tampa after drafting him in the 2nd round of 2022. He made some nice improvements in 2023 and is steady in both run and pass blocking.
There are a couple problems here. First is the play at the guard position. Second is the serious lack of depth along this line.
Verdict
Though this wasn’t true last year, Todd Bowles defenses are often found in the top 5 in the NFL. Tampa Bay was 13th last season and are being drafted as defense #11.
Kudos to Baker Mayfield resurrecting his career and getting paid for the next few years here in Tampa Bay. It’s amazing what can happen when you stop doing commercials and focus on playing the game of football. (Sorry, I have Baker PTSD still.) However, banking on the success of last year might be tough. People are not doing that though as Baker is being drafted as QB 22 at pick 147.
I fully expect Mike Evans to put up another 1,000 yard season. There will, however, be 2 or 3 games where he just doesn’t show up, and as such his ADP of WR 16 and 33 overall is not something I like in 2024. He was an extreme value in 2023, but most are wise to his value even at this stage of his career.
Chris Godwin should maintain the same role he has had in previous years, though I argue that Tom Brady was better than Baker at executing a West Coast offense. Godwin goes at pick 72, WR 35. I’m just more interested in others at that point. Should Godwin miss some time, Jalen McMillan is a sneaky play as he was the slot WR in Washington’s offense in college. He had some injury history that pushed him toward the 3rd round in this past draft, but he could be someone to monitor.
Rachaad White got by on volume in 2023. Outside of Graham Barton, Tampa didn’t do much to address their running struggles in 2024. They added someone who could take touches away from White, so at pick 34 and RB 13, there’s just other RBs I want to go with this season.
We got two more to go! See you for the final installment of these breakdowns soon!
