NFL Coaching and OL Breakdown
Hey all and welcome to the team by team coaching and O-line series breakdown of the NFC North!
OLine and Coaching Series Quick Links
- AFC North Breakdown
- AFC East Breakdown
- AFC South Breakdown
- AFC West Breakdown
- NFC North Breakdown
- NFC East Breakdown
- NFC South Breakdown
- NFC West Breakdown
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 8.5
- HC: Matt Eberflus
- OC: Shane Waldron
- DC: Eric Washington
There a going to be many things that are different with the Bears in 2024. This is Eberflus’ 3rd year at the helm, and he has made some huge pivots in coaches and players alike for this season.
Shane Waldron is going to install a West Coast offense that can hopefully play with a fast pace, though that will be determined by how well rookie Caleb Williams adjusts to the scheme. Ideally, Waldron will make a play call very quickly and get the offense to the line of scrimmage with plenty of time on the play clock. As they get set up, Waldron will be able to communicate with Williams until there are 15 seconds left on the clock. This gives the offense an advantage as Waldron can help identify what the defense is doing. There’s going to be a lot of short and quick passes, partly because of the scheme but also because this offensive line’s pass blocking isn’t its strong suit. Run blocking is pretty good here and the scheme is likely a zone one.
DC Alan Williams is gone after some “inappropriate activity.” New DC Washington has had some really good defensive lines in the past. The defense here will be a base 4-3. There will be rotations and different looks, but expect only 4 to rush the QB on an given play. The secondary will have a mix of coverages. The Bears have the luxury of having 2 of the best defensive players in football in edge rusher Montez Sweat and CB Jaylon Johnson.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Braxton Jones
- LG: Teven Jenkins
- C: Ryan Bates / Coleman Shelton
- RG: Nate Davis / Matt Pryor
- RT: Darnell Wright
The left side of this line is a little better than the right. Jones is decent and Jenkins is probably the best lineman here.
The Bears traded with the Bills to acquire Ryan Bates. He is a versatile linemen who can play all the positions along the line, though he isn’t stellar at any of them. He can be serviceable though. Bates has some injury history including right now as he suffered an ankle injury in camp. Shelton was signed from the Rams as insurance at the position.
Nate Davis has also been missing some practice time at camp with a muscle strain. He received the lowest ranking on this line from Pro Football Focus. He’s been particularly bad with pass blocking. Pryor is here from the 49ers and adds some nice depth.
Darnell Wright was a first round selection last year. He a decent rookie campaign but some improvement here would be nice.
Verdict
I’m very interested in this offense for both this year and future years, though there are distinctions in how I want to go about it.
Caleb Williams is going around pick 101, QB 12. Banking on him to immediately become CJ Stroud seems unwise. Also, grabbing a backup QB this early is something I’m not too keen on, but I guess there are worse ways to use an 8th round pick. I’m much more interested in Caleb for future years though.
The backfield is complicated, but it might be worth the risk. D’Andre Swift, Khalil Herbert, and Roschon Johnson are all going to get playing time, but it will be Swift who gets the passing down work. Justin Fields has vacated 657 rush yards and 4 rushing TDs, so seeing which of these guys is the goal line back could be key to identifying whether or not it is wise to draft Swift at his ADP of 59, which is RB 20. Johnson goes at 179 and Herbert is 189.
DJ Moore and Keenan Allen are in line for some serious fantasy production. Both are excellent route runners, and Allen especially does well at the short yardage routes, which could make him the target hog in 2024. At least one, if not both, are going to have a good year. DJ Moore is pick 40, WR 21. Allen is 62, WR 29. I’m taking either at those spots.
Rome Odunze is the WR to invest in for the future, but he’s going to be inconsistent in year one. He’s pick 100 though, so like Williams there are worse risks to take. Odunze will likely be running deep routes in an attempt to clear coverage for the short yardage completions.
I’m not too keen on Cole Kmet or Gerald Everett for fantasy. I will admit that one of them could become a safety blanket or end zone target for Williams, but I’m not going to gamble on which TE might arise in this offense when there are clearer options available at TE in 2024.
The Bears DST is going off at 285 which is outside the top 12. They will be good this year.
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 10.5
- HC: Dan Campbell
- OC: Ben Johnson
- DC: Aaron Glenn
These three coaches are all returning from last year and everything here will pretty much be the same as it was in 2023. (Well, hopefully Campbell has realized that you don’t always have to go for it on 4th down.) It’s a simple spread offense here that uses a variety of weapons in varying positions. They want to play with a fast pace so as to put pressure on the defense. When throwing, the Lions want to get the ball out of Goff’s hands as quickly as possible. This is a good thing for Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. Establishing the running game with their 2 talented backs and all-star offensive line is paramount to making the play action game work. There are many reasons why both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are fruitful for fantasy: their talent, the offensive line, the amount of plays Detroit runs, and Campbell’s insistence that they have an effective running game.
Glenn is back to coordinate this offense and its variety of fronts on the line. In my article about this team last year I questioned why he had been brought back. Well, I’m still questioning it. While it can be tough to run on Detroit, and the defense is able to generate pressure with blitzes, the secondary is just not where it needs to be, and that was made clear in the second half of the NFC championship. Glenn loves man coverage, but something is getting lost in translation from the practice field and meeting room to the games. I’d imagine Glenn is on thin ice. The Lions were near the top of the league in passing yards and passing TDs allowed in 2023. They spent their first round pick on CB Terrion Arnold, their second round pick on CB Ennis Rakestraw, and brought in CB Carlton Davis from Tampa. At least they understand where the problem lies, but this is likely Glenn’s last chance to fix it.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Taylor Decker
- LG: Graham Glasnow
- C: Frank Ragnow
- RG: Kevin Zeitler
- RT: Peni Sewell
16th, 9th, 1st, 19th, and 1st. Those are the rankings of Decker, Glasnow, Ragnow, Zeitler and Sewell. This is an elite unit.
Zeitler is the new guy here as the rest were on the Lions in 2023. Zeitler is coming over from Baltimore to make this one of if not the best groups in all of football. The offensive line is a major reason for the success of all the fantasy studs on Detroit that we love, especially the RB duo of Gibbs and Montgomery. Depth is a bit of an issue here, but as long as the Lions avoid the injury bug, they will continue to have fantasy stars in 2024.
Verdict
I’m in on Jared Goff this season. He has become well versed in the offense, was just handed a shiny new multi-million dollar deal, has great weapons, great protection, and he plays excellent when indoors. The Lions play 14 of their games in domes in 2024. Goff is pick 105, QB 13. If I still need a QB late in drafts, he is my target.
I really thought that having both RBs would be a necessity in 2023. While that would still be nice, I don’t think it’s a must this time around. Gibbs is pick 10 while Monty is 67. Gibbs was RB 10 last year and Monty was 17. That’s an interesting disparity. You could draft Gibbs and target Monty later on, but in my mock drafts I don’t typically find myself doing that. Either way, barring an injury, you’re likely to get production. If an injury did occur, then one of these backs would be getting most of the snaps.
Amon-Ra is pick 8. I have no problem with that as he will likely lead the team in targets.
LaPorta is going off as TE 1 at pick 25. I’m not convinced he’s the best TE in football, even in fantasy so that seems a bit high. I did create a Lions onslaught roster in one draft by taking St. Brown, LaPorta, Goff and Jameson Williams who is pick 115 and in line for more targets with Josh Reynolds gone, but that’s probably excessive.
One thing that is unknown right now is who the other outside WR will be. Amon-Ra is predominantly slot while Williams will be on the outside. Detroit took a rookie in the 7th round named Antoine Green out of North Carolina who is listed on many depth charts as being that guy. There’s news out of camp that it could be journeyman Daurice Fountain. Kalif Raymond and Donovan “People’s Court” Jones are both still here too. Something to monitor throughout the preseason.
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 9.5
- HC: Matt LaFleur
- OC: Adam Stenavich
- DC: Jeff Hafley
LaFleur is back for year 6 with the Packers. He employs a West Coast offense that features quick step backs from the QB and quick shots to the receivers. RPOs are utilized frequently which Jordan Love seems to take to well. There are also plenty of play action opportunities, but I’m not sure how this zone running scheme is going to be, so the play action effectiveness may not be there. The short throws and the run game setup opportunities deep down the field, which Love also displayed a penchant and talent for in 2023.
Jeff Hafley is in year one of being Green Bay’s DC after Joe Barry’s departure to Miami. Hafley is coming here from Boston College, but he has also worked in the NFL before. He will turn this defense from a 3-4 base to a 4-3 base. In the secondary Hafley will use both zone and man-to-man coverages. The Packers have been bad against the run, and the hope is that the switch to 4-3 will help address that problem. Doing so could make the team more vulnerable against the pass. Also, any change of scheme will take some time to adjust to, so don’t be surprised if the Packer defense does not look very good at the start of the season.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Rasheed Walker
- LG: Elgton Jenkins
- C: Josh Myers
- RG: Jordan Morgan / Sean Rhyan
- RT: Zach Tom
The is a steady, albeit not great, group.
Walker is taking over for long time all-star staple David Bakhtiari. Walker is solid, but he is not Bakhtiari.
Jenkins is a solid NFL lineman, particularly with pass protection.
Myers is one of the worst ranked centers by Pro Football Focus. He hasn’t lived up to his 2021 second round billing, but the Packers hope he can improve.
Morgan is a first round rookie out of Arizona who is slated to start at RG. Rhyan is there in case Morgan can’t hang, but Morgan is the more talented of the two.
Tom is solid at RT, a good pass and run blocker.
Overall the unit is better at pass blocking than run blocking, but there also is not much depth here, so injuries would be detrimental to the success of the Packer offense.
Verdict
I’m out on this run game. First of all, I expect Jacobs, Dillon, and 3rd round rookie Marshawn Lloyd to all have roles in this offense. Second, Jacobs has been better suited in power rushing attacks than zone ones. Maybe the coaches make that change to accommodate Jacobs, but I don’t want to make that wish at pick 23 overall.
Jordan Love is also going a little high for me. I get it though, people are excited about what they saw at the end of the season and in his first playoff appearance against Dallas, but 72 overall and QB 8 is a bit pricey for someone who essentially stopped using his legs in the second half of 2023.
Jayden Reed is the first Packer WR off the board at pick 77. I don’t mind that selection depending on the makeup of my team at that point in the draft. Christian Watson and his bad hamstrings go off at pick 98, pass. Romeo Doubs is 129, and Dontayvion Wicks is 159. Just employing game theory, I’ll go with Wicks there, although Doubs “fits” the focus of a West Coast offense more. There are a lot of mouths to feed in the passing game, and we haven’t even gotten to Luke Musgrave yet.
Musgrave is pick 143, TE 17. Missing the back half of 2023 while this offense was coming to life did Musgrave no favors. If you’re looking for a backup TE who has a path to being more involved in an offense, you could do worse. I doubt I’ll go here though, he only averaged 3.8 fantasy points per game last season.
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 6.5
- HC: Kevin O’Connell
- OC: Wes Phillips
- DC: Brian Flores
Similar to what I wrote last year about this group, O’Connell and Phillips will use a West Coast offense that allows its QB to drop back a little further and throw a little deeper. That was with Cousins though. I would expect some training wheels for both Sam Darnold and JJ McCarthy though, so shorter throws are probably on tap. In the run game they will use multiple schemes. They became rather predictable last season, so I would expect they use their new RB Aaron Jones in a variety of zone, power, and gap rushes, though Jones excelled in the Packers zone running scheme for years.
I’m a big fan of Brian Flores. He is constantly shifting and evolving his defenses based on league trends and opposing matchups. He stacks the box with a lot of his players but then might only rush 3 just to confuse his opponents. He loves the blitz and will use any of his players to bring pressure. His secondary scheme changes as well. Historically Flores has played a lot of man-to-man, but he used zone frequently last season as well. This just further proves how much he likes to mix things up, but as I stated last year, while mixing things up can confuse QBs, it can confuse your own secondary at times too.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Christian Darrishaw
- LG: Dalton Risner / Blake Brandel
- C: Garrett Bradbury
- RG: Ed Ingram
- RT: Brian O’Neill
There are plenty of solid starters on this line, with their strength being the tackles.
Darrishaw and O’Neill have continued to do well at the NFL level. Darrishaw in particular is one of the best pass blocking lineman in football.
At guard, both Risner and Ingram have allowed their QB to be hit fairly frequently. They are the weak points here.
Bradberry is decent, but the Vikings would like some improvement here as well.
The Vikings have some veteran depth on their roster, so injuries to the starters won’t mean the end of the world. It would be nice though for Minnesota to pass protect a little better as neither Sam Darnold nor JJ McCarthy are Kirk Cousins.
Verdict
Justin Jefferson is a risky first round pick this year. While he’s an absolute stud, he doesn’t have Kirky throwing him the ball anymore. He will still likely lead the Vikings in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and passing TDs, but the quality of those targets are very much in question. JJ will get his, but will he outperform the likes of Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra, Bijan Robinson, and Breece Hall? If I’m drafting toward the end of the first round and for some reason Jefferson falls to me, then I’ll take the shot. I won’t if I’m drafting 5th though.
TJ Hockenson on the other hand really intrigues me. He’s going at pick 177, TE 13. This is incredible value. O’Connell started playing more 2 TE sets last season as a way to get Hockenson in better matchups. Prior to his injury he had racked up 960 yards and was one of the top TEs in fantasy. The ACL tear is huge and there are varying reports as to when he will return. Some speculate Halloween, others are not ruling out Week 1 as he appears to be ahead of schedule. Keep an eye on it, he will be much higher than TE 13 if he plays 15 or more games.
Aaron Jones will be a focal point of this offense and someone Darnold and McCarthy will lean on in the passing game too. Injuries are a concern with Jones, and he’s going to get volume here so the risk is higher, but he is pick 57 and RB 18. Not a bad spot to pick up a solid RB2.
That’s if for me in Minnesota. Jordan Addison is not someone I am looking at. The targets and opportunities should be focused on the aforementioned 3 players above. Addison is going at pick 93. I like his talent, but I’ll be investing in him for years beyond 2024.
I’m not drafting either QB, but I would take McCarthy in dynasty leagues for sure.
