NFL Coaching and OL Breakdown
Hey all and welcome to installment #5 of the team by team coaching and O-line series. We’re on to the other conference and today we have the NFC East!
OLine and Coaching Series Quick Links
- AFC North Breakdown
- AFC East Breakdown
- AFC South Breakdown
- AFC West Breakdown
- NFC North Breakdown
- NFC East Breakdown
- NFC South Breakdown
- NFC West Breakdown
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 10.5
- HC: Mike McCarthy
- OC: Brian Schottenheimer
- DC: Mike Zimmer
Count me as surprised that McCarthy still has a job after last season’s playoff debacle. He comes back for his 5th year as HC of the Cowboys. I guess I could see the argument for keeping him to work one more year with Brian Schottenheimer and his passing offense as that was a goldmine of fantasy production and a key part of the Boys being 12 -5 this past year.
This is not a West Coast offense, in fact most of the NFC East is not, so count me as excited to write about something other than that. This is a vertical offense, one that is pass heavy and features a good amount of deep shots. Last year I questioned Dak Prescott’s ability to have continued success in this scheme, but he proved himself for sure. In this offense the receivers have to be in tune with the QB as timing has to be correct. CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, and Brandin Cooks all showed that they are capable of playing well in this scheme, and they all (assuming Lamb signs a new deal) are back for 2024. I am concerned that the secret is out sort of speak around the league as defenses will have an easier time preparing for the Cowboys passing attack, especially since the running game in Dallas is not much of a factor.
The loss of DC Dan Quinn is huge. While Mike Zimmer doesn’t stink or anything, the defense will be quite different. Zimmer uses a 4-3 based defense and he loves to bring pressure with extra rushers and blitzes. Zimmer will also introduce more man and press coverage into the secondary than these players were used to under Quinn.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Tyler Guyton
- LG: Tyler Smith
- C: Brock Hoffman / Cooper Beebe
- RG: Zack Martin
- RT: Terrence Steele
The Boys lost LT Tyron Smith and C Tyler Biadasz to free agency, so some retooling had to happen.
They took Guyton at 29th overall in this past draft, but starting a rookie at LT is always a gamble.
Smith is ranked 11th overall by Pro Football Focus, he has had issues with penalties though.
Hoffman is a nice story. He’s an undrafted college-free agent who had to fight his way up from practice squads after multiple trips through waivers. He’s played center and filled in at RG when Martin has been injured. He carries a rank of 34th overall but will have to win the camp battle against 3rd round rookie Beebe.
Zack Martin is a perennial all pro, though is 33 now and seems to be constantly fighting off injuries.
Steele is a borderline liability at RT.
Verdict
The Cowboys DST was the best one in fantasy a season ago. This year they are being drafted as DST 3 around pick 178. Even that could be a mistake. While I don’t think they will be terrible, there is going to be a learning curve for players like Trevon Diggs, who may not have the INT totals he’s been used to seeing. The Boys could, however, increase their 2023 sack total of 46 under this new scheme.
Dak is being drafted as QB 9 at pick 74. He was QB 3 last season in this exact system. Yes, his offensive line is not as good, and teams may get wise as to what Dallas is doing, but I have no issues with taking him here at the end of the 6th/beginning of the 7th round.
I’ve been a CeeDee Lamb truther since he came into the league. If he signs, and these things usually get solved, he should earn his first-round pick status. When the deep shots are not there in this offense, the underneath routes have been cleared out by two WRs running deep routes. Lamb ate in this scenario last year as he was often available, crossing over the middle and having many yards after the catch opportunities. The longer he holds out, however, the more chance there will be of him starting out slowly or getting hurt.
Ferguson also benefitted from more room in underneath routes. He is going at pick 92, the 10th TE off the board. Prescott targets his TE inside the 10 yard line more than any other QB targets his TE. Swing away if Ferguson falls to you here.
Brandin Cooks has fallen to pick 149, WR62. He had some spike weeks and other weeks where he did not do much from a fantasy standpoint. I’d expect similar in 2024. There are worse WRs you can use as a fill in during the bye weeks. He will be one of the WRs trying to take the top off the defense. Whether it’s Jalen Tolbert or KaVontae Turpin or someone else trying a deep route on the other side of the field remains to be seen.
I’m not drafting any of the Boys’ RBs. This isn’t the right scheme, the offensive line is not as good, and Zeke is an old man by NFL standards. He’ll fall into the end zone a few times this year, but this is not the same Zeke from 5 years ago. Rico Dowdle is not an every down kind of back.
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 6.5
- HC: Brian Daboll
- OC: Mike Kafka
- DC: Shane Bowen
The Gmen use a spread offense with play action and RPOs to help the QB isolate single coverages and deliver the ball to the appropriate receiver who is in position to gain yards after the catch. This offense went rather well for Daniel Jones in 2022, but in 2023 he battled injuries and missed most of the season. In the run game, the loss of Barkley is huge. The team hopes to install a zone blocking scheme with their new line coach (more on him below).
Wink Martindale is gone to the college ranks after he and Daboll’s relationship soured toward the end of the 2023 season. Bowen is now the DC and he will install a 3-4 base setup that will try to rush 4 on most downs and drop the rest into coverage. That coverage will be a mix of zone and man, with 2 deep safeties. Bowen will preach taking the ball away like he did as DC of the Titans. The front of this defense is quite good, but there are question marks in the secondary, and it will likely take time for the defensive backs to grasp Bowen’s system fully.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Andrew Thomas
- LG: Jermaine Eluemunor / Aaron Stinnie
- C: John Michael Schmitz
- RG: Jon Runyan
- RT: Evan Neal
This was one of the worst units in football last season. We now have a new line coach in Caremn Bicillo. He is a former lineman, high school coach, and college line coach. He has been in the NFL as an assistant in New England and Las Vegas. He is now here to help fix this group.
Thomas is the best part of this line. He’s one of the better pass blockers in the NFL.
Eluemunor has been a solid tackle for the Raiders, and he has followed Bicillo to New York and will move to guard.
Schmitz isn’t good.
Runyan joins this group from Green Bay. He’s a decent pass blocker but could improve his run blocking.
Neal has been a colossal disappointment since being taken #7 overall in 2022. The Giants don’t seem ready to give up on him just yet. The option could be there to move Eluemunor back to tackle and use Stinnie at guard.
Verdict
Wan’Dale Robinson and Malik Nabers are probably the only 2 guys I am interested in. There’s plenty of excitement and expectations for Nabers, who would be the top WR in this draft class if it were any other year. He’s going off at pick 47, WR24. I actually think that’s a good spot for him, but I anticipate that his ADP will rise. Robinson goes off much much later at pick 202. He’s definitely sneaky. He could be in line for a lot of short yardage completions out of the slot.
Darius Slayton and Jalin Hyatt are going to be very inconsistent. They might make their way into DFS millionaire winning lineup at some point, but weekly starters they are not.
Daniel Jones is essentially not being drafted. I don’t see the need to game theory this one, there are better backup QBs for your fantasy rosters. I’l keep an eye on it though. Jones might be doing more running here if he has to flee the pocket because the offensive line stinks. Also, this scheme doesn’t seem good for RBs who aren’t stars. It could be tough sledding for Devon Singletary and Tyrone Tracy.
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 10.5
- HC: Nick Sirianni
- OC: Kellen Moore
- DC: Vic Fangio
With Brian Johnson gone to division rival Washington, Kellen Moore is here after the coaching overhaul in the Chargers organization. Moore will turn the Eagles from a West Coast offense into a vertical/spread one. Hurts will be throwing more this year, and be taking more deep shots. This will also hopefully open up rushing lanes for newly acquired RB Saquon Barkley. In the past Moore has put decisions in the hands of his QBs, typically offering up 2 plays for the QB to choose from and then allowing the QB to make the decision based on what the defense is doing. We’ll see how that specifically goes in Philly as I doubt Saquon was brought in so Hurts could choose to run it himself.
Vic Fangio’s transfer to Philadelphia is significant. Fangio will rotate fronts but typically rush only 4. In the secondary Fangio will show multiple coverage in the time it takes the offense to come up to the line of scrimmage and when they hike the football, often showing 3 and maybe even 4 different coverages. I hope you can understand how confusing that might be for an opposing QB or OC. There will likely be some growing pains as the Eagles adjust to this new scheme, but in the end this will be a good defense with their ceiling being championship level.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Jordan Mailata
- LG: Landon Dickerson
- C: Cam Jurgens
- RG: Tyler Steen
- RT: Lane Johnson
It’s tough to talk about this 2024 Eagles offensive line without mentioning how unique Jason Kelce was to this team. Kelce did pick his replacement in Cam Jurgens who will move to center from guard. Jurgens is decent, but he is not Kelce.
Mailata is a solid LT, though I was a little surprised by his 3rd overall rank by PFF. I’m not sure he’s that good, but he is a solid LT. Dickerson maintained his top 20 rank at LG, he is quite good.
Steen is a 2023 3rd round pick who had a year to learn from one of the best line coaches in Jeff Stoutland as well as all the other talents on the line. Johnson is also quite good though he has begun to be hampered by injuries.
Overall, this is still one of the best units in football, but they aren’t same as in years past. “Tush pushes” are no longer guaranteed successes.
Verdict
Hurts is going as QB 2, pick 32. I have no problem with that, but I think Hurts is going to be a high scoring QB due to his arm more than his legs this season. He’ll still have some rush yards and rushing TDs, but not to the level of the last 2 seasons.
This is going to be Barkley’s backfield. He’s less likely to have Hurts vulture carries and TDs from him. Kenneth Gainwell is still here and he will get some run as well, but I have confidence in Barkley having a similar role as Zeke Elliott from 4 years ago when Moore was OC of the Dallas Cowboys. Saquon is the 10th overall pick, someone I’m happy to grab toward the end of the first round.
AJ Brown is also going in the first round at pick 9. I like the ceilings of some of the other wideouts in the first round, but Brown should certainly still get his, and the deeper shots that Hurts will be taking this year should benefit AJ.
This scheme benefits DeVonta Smith as well. He’s pick 43, WR 23. I doubt I get to much of him, but if he falls in my lap as my WR 2, then I could be okay with that.
With so many mouths to feed, Dallas Goedert is the man on the outside for me. He’s TE 12, pick 109. I’ll be really upset with myself if I got this far in the draft and am forced to go with a TE 1 this late. Parris Campbell is here now too. I don’t think he’ll have a ton of fantasy relevance, but his slot routes might eat into Goedert’s fantasy production as well.
NFL Futures: Regular Season Win Odds: 6.5
- HC: Dan Quinn
- OC: Kliff Kingsbury
- DC: Joe Whitt Jr.
Dan Quinn is the new man in town. He is one of the better defensive minds in football as his Cowboys defense was excellent in recent years, his Falcons defense was a solid group when he was HC there, and of course he had involvement in the Legion of Boom in Seattle. This will be Quinn’s second attempt at being a head coach. He and Joe Whitt will employ a base 4-3 defense, but like many in the league the Commanders will mix and match who is on the line and how many will be rushing from play to play. The secondary will be a good amount of zone coverage, and for Washington fans, Whitt should be a welcomed sight as he’s made secondaries better basically everywhere he has gone. Quinn has been quite clear that Whitt will be the play caller as well on game day.
I’m going to do my best at being impartial here as I just don’t like Kliff Kingsbury. Jayden Daniels has a similar skillset as Kyler Murray, so I’m guessing Kingsbury will be fairly predictable here. Backup Marcus Mariota has some mobility as well so this seems like a very purposeful signing. Kingsbury will employ a spread offense in Washington that features shotgun snaps and RPOs. The blocking and run scheme will be mostly zone and there will be plenty of 3 and 4 WR sets.
Offensive Line
Projected Starters
- LT: Cornelius Lucas / Brandon Coleman
- LG: Nick Allegretti
- C: Tyler Biadasz
- RG: Sam Cosmi
- RT: Andrew Wylie
So I’m pretty sure the Commanders messed this one up. They let go of LT Charles Leno with the hope of being able to replace him in free agency. In fact, that seems like their plan for a few spots along this line.
Washington was unable to secure an LT so their first idea is to move Lucas over to LT. Lucas is 33, so props on him for accepting the request so he can remain an NFL starter. However, he hasn’t played all that well, so the Commanders drafted Coleman out of TCU in the 3rd as option #2.
Allegretti comes to DC from the Chiefs. He was mostly a backup, but he stepped in for Joe Thuney during the playoffs and performed admirably.
Biadasz is a huge get for the Commanders. He comes here after some solid seasons with the Cowboys.
Cosmi and Wylie are the only returning starters from a year ago. Cosmi is a very good guard, PFF gives him a rank of 6th. He transitioned from tackle to guard last season and his play was a pleasant outcome for this team. Wylie is an average NFLer but steady on the right side.
On paper this seems like a decent group, but they are not very deep. They also have a new line coach in Bobby Johnson who just came here from the Giants. The Gmen didn’t have a good offensive line under Johnson.
Verdict
First off, I’m avoiding the backfield as Robinson and Ekeler should be splitting time as well as losing runs to Jayden Daniels, although Daniels shouldn’t be doing a ton of running as that will likely lead to injury. That and there are question marks around the offensive line, so I just don’t want to deal with this headache.
Jayden Daniels is going at pick 108 as QB 15. I have serious doubts about Daniels’ ability to stay healthy in the NFL. He’ll have some nice fantasy games, but they’ll be likely to be inconsistent in year 1.
Terry McLaurin is going at pick 66, WR 31. The primary receivers in both Kingsbury’s and Daniels’ offenses have all been very successful in the past, so there’s no reason to think that McLaurin can’t be successful here. Picking him at this ADP likely makes him your 3rd WR or first flex option.
Jahan Dotson really is not a fit for the offense. He’s being taken at 151. There are just other players I would take a shot on in that area.
The Commanders drafted Christian McCaffrey’s little brother Luke in the 3rd round of the draft. Name aside, McCaffrey has had in interesting path in football thus far that features multiple collegiate transfers and a position change from QB to WR prior to his junior season. While Luke has football in his DNA, his lankiness makes many question his abilities in the NFL. He doesn’t have a ton of separation speed, but he fights through contact and comes down with the catch more often than not. If he wins the slot WR job, he might make a few blips on the fantasy radar. I’m not drafting him as of right now, but I’ll be paying attention.
Hey Zach Ertz is on this team! The Commanders drafted Ben Sinnott in the 2nd round. I feel Ertz is here to partially show Sinnott the ropes, but Kingsbury also had Ertz on his team in Arizona.
I’m very interested in the Commanders DST, which is not being drafted. I’d say that’s appropriate as it will likely take some time for the group to gel. I’ll be eyeing them for the second half of 2024 if not for 2025.
