Most Regular Season Passing Yards Odds
This time of year, most football fans can rattle off a list of quarterback rankings with little or no effort. We’ve all done enough mock drafts and best ball drafts that we know exactly where QBs are going. However, to be a great fantasy quarterback, one needs a combination of strong passing numbers, touchdowns, and rushing yards. It also helps if your QB doesn’t throw a lot of interceptions.
Sportsbooks have always been great at predicting games. The safest betting sites offer game odds that are usually very close to the actual outcome. That’s why I thought I’d share this list of passing yard odds to put things in perspective.
Regular Season QB Passing Yards Odds
- Justin Herbert +700
- Matthew Stafford +850
- Patrick Mahomes +850
- Tom Brady +850
- Joe Burrow +950
- Derek Carr +1100
- Dak Prescott +1200
- Josh Allen +1200
- Kirk Cousins +2100
- Aaron Rodgers +2600
- Matt Ryan +2600
- Russell Wilson +2600
- Jameis Winston +2800
- Kyler Murray +3200
This is an interesting list, to say the least.
I have no qualms with the top four names on this list. Herbert has proven he is a gunslinger in this league and has the weapons to rack up yardage each and every week. Same for Stafford, Mahomes, and Brady. They are the best of the best and have a strong group of pass-catching targets to make life easy.
But this is where things get interesting, especially as the odds start to really become enticing.
Joe Burrow arguably has the best two wide receivers in the game. The offensive line was a question mark entering the off-season but is now being dubbed one of the most improved units in the entire NFL.
Cincinnati massively upgraded its interior offensive line early in free agency by signing La’el Collins, Alex Cappa, and Ted Karras. Cappa ranked ninth among right guards in PFF grade last season, while Karras slotted into the top three among all guards in grade on true pass sets.
“Collins is capable of producing at a top-10 level relative to other right tackles. In fact, he ranks fifth at the position in PFF grade since 2019. He missed all of 2020, but he played 1,743 combined snaps in 2019 and 2021. By bringing in Collins to pair with Cappa and Karras, Cincinnati has the most improved offensive line in the league. That unit ranked 30th in pass-blocking grade last season.” – Anthony Treash PFF
At +950, Joe Burrow is a very tempting target for a season props bet.
But the list goes on.
It’s rare to find any QB list this season where Josh Allen isn’t in the top 3, let alone 8th on the list. However, surprisingly, Allen was 8th in passing yards last year so it makes sense not to have him so high. But the Bills didn’t really address their running game this offseason, they did draft, James Cook, from Baylor in the second round, but the depth chart still looks to have Devin Singletary lead the group. This means the coaching staff still wants Allen with the ball in his hands as much as possible. Stefon Diggs and Dawson Knox haven’t gone anywhere and with the emergence of Gabriel Davis and added veteran leadership in Jamison Crowder who slides into the slot, one could argue Allen has a better receiving unit than he did last season. If you’re a Bills fan looking for great odds on a future bet, this has to be it.
Lastly, I have to mention Kirk Cousins at +2100. Everyone is excited about the Vikings’ passing game this season due to a change in the offensive coordinator position. The Vikings brought in Wes Phillips. Phillips was the Rams’ passing game coordinator in 2021. The Vikings’ personnel is nearly identical to last year, with Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and Dalvin Cook leading the charge, plus a healthy Irv Smith Jr. returning from injury. The Vikings have a good defense, but I could see a lot more shoot-out-type games for the Vikings in 2022, especially within the division. I like Cousins for a long-shot bet.
James is a diehard fantasy football fan who has been playing for over 20 years. He doesn’t have a favorite team, mainly from moving around a lot when he was a kid. This has to lead to many fantasy championships as James drafts with his head, not with his heart. James also plays heavily in Dynasty Football and loves DFS and Picking games. He’s excited to see where he can go writing for Gridiron Experts