Happy New Year, everyone. I hope everyone had a productive and lucrative first football Sunday of the New Year. Now it is time slowly roll into Monday and get some of the Buffalo Bills v Cincinnati Bengals action.
Last week was an unfortunate one for me, both DFS and season-long (ROSTER LOCK MEANS ROSTER LOCK….ugh…sorry, personal vent)! For our purposes, I went 1-3, and while I take complete responsibility, I am also placing the blame on the abysmal performance of Nick Foles (WTF man, burned in both betting and season-long fantasy)! Anyway, I did (finally) get to take down my nemesis bet, Austin Ekeler’s first touchdown (I know it was low-hanging fruit, just let me have this one). Other than that, Nick Foles’ passing attempts were 33.5, he went under with 29, Josh Palmer had 33.5 receiving yards, Palmer had 16 receiving yards ( and yes, this tilted me in both betting and season-long), and Zack Moss had 13.5 rushing attempts, he had 12 (sorry @FantasyJay77 also known as Gator_J).
I promise to do better, and it starts right now.
Let’s break this Monday… let’s go out balling. And you can stop by GoingFor2 “2-Point Conversion” tonight at 7 pm eastern time to hear Prop Bets and righteous rants.
Josh Allen passing attempts 34.5
Passing completions 22.5
Allen has had an uneven passing resume in his last three games. Against the New York Jets, he had 27 attempts and 16 completions; against the Miami Dolphins, he had 40 attempts with 25 completions. And against the Chicago Bears, he had 26 attempts and 15 completions. That is a 59.2%, 62.5%, and 57.7% completion percentage in his last three games.
In 14 games, Allen has attempted over 34.5 passes seven times. After his elbow injury on November 6, he has attempted more than 34.5 passes three times, completing more than 22.5 each of those times.
The Bengals have allowed an average of 34.3 passing attempts per game with 20.7 completions and 40.0 passing attempts, and 25.7 completions in their last three weeks.
The Bengals’ defense allows the lowest completion percentage for the season (60.19%), but in the last three weeks, they have allowed a 64.17% completion percentage.
The implied total for this game is 49.5, with the Buffalo Bills a road favorite at -1.5.
I am relying on the implied total go-over on both passing attempts and passing completions for Allen. His three-over (s) after elbow injury went over 49.5.
Wide Receiver Props
Ja’Marr Chase 6.5 receptions
This appears to be a gimmie both the odds and what we know Chase is capable. In his last three games, he has double-digit targets (15, 13, and 11), and in those games, he had 10, seven, and eight receptions.
Glossing over last week’s game against Chicago, in Week 15 against the Miami Dolphins, WR1 Tyreek Hill had nine receptions (13 targets). In Week 14 against the New York Jets, WR1 Garrett Wilson had six receptions ( seven targets), and in Week 13 against the New England Patriots, Jakobi Meyers had three receptions (five targets).
Chase is on the field for a 93.1% snap share and a 29.0% target share (34.3% target share in the red zone). He is averaging 11.0 targets per game and 7.2 receptions per game.
I am going over on 6.5 receptions. Check the lines (as you do for all ). It has been from -110, -125, and -130 for over.
Running Back Props
Devin Singletary, 11.5 rushing attempts
Singletary has had double-digit rushing attempts in two of his last three games. Against Miami, he rushed 13 times for 42 yards and 12 rushing attempts against Chicago. His eight rushing attempts against the New York Jets were his fewest since Week 9.
In their last three weeks, the Bengals have allowed 22 rushing attempts per game. Last week Rhamondre Stevenson had 13 rushing attempts against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Leonard Fournette had ten rushing attempts, Rachaad White had 11, and in Week 10, Nick Chubb had 14 rushing attempts.
I am going over on Singletary rushing attempts.
Let’s do this. In four games away, the Bills have allowed opponents to score the first three of those times. Two were passing touchdowns, and one was a rushing touchdown (Jamaal Williams, duh).
In the Bengals’ last three home games, they have scored. First, Chase receiving, Burrow rushing, and Mixon rushing.
Chase first to score, and Burrow anytime touchdown.
Good Luck, and Happy New Year!
Gladys is obsessive about fantasy football, Pittsburgh Steelers, dogs/cats, pop culture movies and television shows, and Ben & Jerry’s 7 Layer Vegan Ice Cream (although not necessarily in that order). A writer about NFL, college ball, and fantasy football for more than 10 years, she attempts to combine her degree in statistical variance (BS Policy Analysis) with player knowledge and game script. Though her concentration is on IDP, redraft, and PPR leagues, all fantasy formats are fair game. Reach out whenever you can find me on Twitter @gladysLtyler. And remember, don’t suck and tip your bartenders well.