Monday Night Football Prop Bets
I’m officially done picking games; I’m way more profitable betting prop bets. Last week, I went 5-1 on MNF and then 2-1 on Thursday.
Tonight, we get another NFL double-header for Monday Night Football. The 0-3 Tennessee Titans are in Miami to take on the 1-2 Dolphins, and the 3-0 Seahawks travel to Detroit to face the 2-1 Lions. I’m not sure if this is going to become a regular thing, but two games on MNF isn’t bad when you’re trying to find things to bet on.
These games couldn’t be more opposite. The AFC battle between the winless Titans and the Tua-less Dolphins has an over/under of just 37 points. If the Titans drop another game, GM Ran Carthon may be forced to pick up the phone and see if he can trade away some of the team’s talent before the trade deadline, as the post-season would be nearly impossible to make at 0-4. On the other hand, the Dolphins are trying to do everything they can to gameplan without their starting quarterback. Miami has a bye in week 6, so the team is likely just trying to do its best to give Tua Tagovailoa as much time as possible to heal up and possibly return to action. If you’re looking to bet on this game, I would highly recommend checking Live NFL odds mid-way through the first quarter. Depending on who scores first, it could really impact the value of return in this game.
The NFC game tonight has the surprising 3-0 Seahawks getting its first real test of the season against the Lions. Detroit dropped their home opener to the Bucs in week two but will have an excited prime-time crowd ready tonight. The Lions have a bye next week, meaning they shouldn’t be worried too much giving their star running backs a heavy dose of carries.
The following are my Monday Night Football prop bets for both games tonight.
Over 32.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
The Titans and Dolphins rank well in many defensive categories, which is why sportsbooks expect a low-scoring game. However, the Titans have been average at best stopping the run, and with a mobile QB like Tyler Huntley under center, the Dolphins may lead heavy on the read-option plays similar to the type of offense Huntley ran in Baltimore.
Last week Packers QB Malik Willis had 73 yards on just 6 carries. The Packers ran the ball 37 times with a number of different personal. I expect to see a lot of the similar type of plays tonight against the Titans defense.
Under 196.5 Passing Yards (-110)
If you can find a better total, I would take it. I expect this line to come down closer to game time. If the passing total drops below 190, I would skip this prop.
That being said, Levis has struggled this year and has only one game in which he eclipsed the 200-yard passing mark. The Titans rank 12th in passing yards allowed per game on defense and have faced off against some above-average talent, including Josh Allen, Geno Smith, and Trevor Lawrence.
Game script is important when deciding on these types of bets. I feel that the Dolphins will put together long drives with a heavy rushing attack. If the Dolphins can get a lead early, I feel this plays better into the narrative, putting pressure on the Titans to throw to make a comeback.
Other props
- Will Levis Over 0.5 INT
- Will Levis Under 29.5 Passing Attempts
Over 250.5 Passing Yards (-110)
The more I dig into the Seahawks statistics, the more I’m regretting not drafting Geno Smith in Fantasy in the later rounds. The Hawks have 3rd best passing yards per game average in the NFL, averaging 246 yards per game, while the Lions rank 19th in stopping the pass. In the last two weeks, Geno Smith was successful throwing against above-average defensive units. He has a stacked wide receiver group and should be able to surpass the 250 mark tonight in a big NFC battle.
Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
This prop is obviously correlated with the Geno Smith prop bet. Metcalf has over 100 yards in two of his last three games. WRs have had their way with the Lion’s secondary for over three weeks into this season. While I do feel the Lions defense will play better tonight, 65 yards is too low not to get in on.
Over 243.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
At first glance, one might think the Seahawks have an elite secondary, as they rank 1st in the NFL in defensive passing yards allowed, but that’s mainly from the fact they haven’t faced a good QB yet in 2024. The Hawks have played against Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, and Skylar Thompson. You could argue they haven’t seen any good WR’s either, except Hill and Waddle. This game is shaping up to be a potential shoot-out.
Quick Parlay Recap
- Huntley Over 32.5 Rush Yards + Achane Over 62.5 Rush Yards + Levis Under 196 Pass Yards (Parlay +575)
- Geno Over 250.5 Pass Yards + Mecalf Over 65.5 Rec Yards + Goff Over 243.5 Pass Yards +Amon-Ra Over 73.5 (Parly +575)
