Monday Night Football Prop Bets
I’m currently 15-6 with my prop bets over the last four articles. Last week, I was convinced Chris Godwin would hit his reception and yardage overs. We even had overtime to make it happen, but the Bucs never got the ball in OT. I’m looking for a clean sweep with perfect picks; let’s hope tonight is the night.
Tonight’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the New Orleans Saints is projected to score 43 points, with the Chiefs favored by 5.5 points.
The Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as road underdogs. They are 16-6 ATS in that role since 2018 and 29-13 ATS since 2014. Since 2021, the unders are 11-1 when the Saints have extra rest (8-1 under Dennis Allen).
This is an interesting game, one that may not go as expected. Patrick Mahomes has only played the Saints once in his career, going back to December 20th, 2020. He is 7-3 on Monday Nights in his career but is 0-2 in his last two games.
Over 235.5 Passing Yards
This prop bet seems too low. I know the Chiefs are without Rashee Rice, but the Saints rank 25th in passing yards allowed per game. With the running game in question, we could see the Chiefs approach this matchup much like how the Cowboys run their offense: with a lot of quick outs and end rounds. We may not see as many big plays tonight, but the yardage should still be there.
Over 25.5 Receiving Yards
I would rather bet on a player like Watson, who has been on the team for a few years and has a lower prop total, than a rookie like Xavier Worthy. Watson has an opportunity to step up and fill the Rashee Rice role. Watson saw three targets last week and played 69% of the Chiefs snaps. He should be good for two or three catches tonight; I think he hits the over.
Over 59.5 Receiving Yards
Olave saw ten targets last week; he’ll be busy again tonight. I like this total as I feel the Chiefs should pull away in the 4th quarter, and the Saints will have to throw to try to keep the game close. Except for the first game of the year, Olave has had 80+ yards in every game.
Quick Recap
- Mahomes Over 235.5
- Watson Over 25.5
- Olave Over 59.5
