Welcome to Monday Night Football, with the New Orleans Saints traveling to Tampa Bay for the second meeting between the two teams this season. The first meeting in Week 2 ended with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers finally getting their win 20-10.
Tonight, the Buccaneers are a -3 favorite and -175 on the Moneyline. The over-under has risen 0.5 to 41 (-110), and the Saints are +145 on the Moneyline. Over at DraftKings Sportsbook, the Saints are +150 on the Moneyline if you are inclined.
Let’s blow this week out of the water (get a Buccaneer’s reference). Before we got started last week, I went 2-2. I missed Pat Freiermuth’s yards (43.5). He only had 39 (if only some of his 76 yards from yesterday could be retroactively applied (but I was told it doesn’t work that way). And the first-time touchdown (which I will continue to bet), it seems Week 12, the Steelers decided for the first time all season to score first…ahh, Najee Harris.
The movement up on the over/under only makes me want to bet the under more.
The Saints are getting healthy last week, holding the San Francisco 49ers to 13 points, and the week before, holding the Arizona Cardinals to 10 points.
The Buccaneers rank 27th in average points per game (18.2), and the Saints are tied for 20th averaging 20.8 points per game.
This game is usually a fight to finish (literally), and a bit depends on the status of Marshon Lattimore.
But Prime Time Dalton and Dennis Allen are usually able to befuddle Tom Brady, and no Tristan Wirfs all point to this game being a low-scoring slugfest.
Bet Under 41
Andy Dalton’s passing attempts were 33.5 over -105, 33.5 under -125
Dalton didn’t play in their first meeting this season. It was Jameis Winston who attempted 40 passing attempts in that game.
Dalton has attempted over 40 passes once this season. It was against Arizona in Week 7. He had 47 passing attempts, four touchdowns, and three interceptions., then no more.
He has attempted 29, 25, and 27 passing attempts in his last three games. On average, for the season, the Saints attempt 33.3 pass attempts per game, passing the ball on 58.68% of their offensive plays. The Saints have averaged 28.7 passing attempts per game in their last three games. ( In comparison, the Buccaneers pass on 66.39% of their offensive plays and average 42.8 pass attempts per game, the most in the league).
Bet the under -125
You can’t hear it, but this is me strenuously cursing because, currently, there are only rushing props for the Saints.
Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards are 48.5 -120 over, 48.5 under -115
Kamara has been less than hoped for so far this season. In his last three games
|Seven rushing attempts
|12 rushing attempts
|Eight rushing attempts
Kamara did not play in the Week 2 matchup. Mark Ingram was the top rusher with 60 yards on 10 rushing attempts.
The once-feared Tampa Bay rushing defense has taken a step back. They have allowed the Buccaneers have allowed the 19th most rushing yards per game for the season (123.3). Although in their last three games, they have only allowed 98.7 rushing yards per game.
Last week Dalton was the leading rusher with 21 yards on four rushing attempts against the San Francisco 49ers. In week 11 against the Los Angeles Rams, Taysom Hill was the leading rusher with 52 yards on nine carries.
It is interesting, albeit frustrating, to note that Hill has had the leading or second-most rushing yards in the last three weeks.
This is a difficulty. We know Kamara is capable, but he just hasn’t shown he has the juice.
Bet under -115
First Time Touchdown
I told you I would not surrender and would not give up. Let’s do this.
In week 2, the first touchdown was a passing touchdown in the fourth quarter by Breshad Perriman.
Tampa Bay, in their six games at home, have scored the first three times(Leonard Fournette’s two rushing touchdowns and Julio Jones’s one passing touchdown) and have been scored on the first three times all passing touchdowns.
In their four away games, the Saints scored first twice, both passing touchdowns. The two times they were scored on first by a touchdown included a defensive fumble recovery returned for a touchdown and a rushing touchdown by Pittsburgh’s George Pickens.
Pick Rachaad White’s first-time touchdown +500, and bonus pick Adam Trautman anytime score+230.
Gladys is obsessive about fantasy football, Pittsburgh Steelers, dogs/cats, pop culture movies and television shows, and Ben & Jerry’s 7 Layer Vegan Ice Cream (although not necessarily in that order). A writer about NFL, college ball, and fantasy football for more than 10 years, she attempts to combine her degree in statistical variance (BS Policy Analysis) with player knowledge and game script. Though her concentration is on IDP, redraft, and PPR leagues, all fantasy formats are fair game. Reach out whenever you can find me on Twitter @gladysLtyler. And remember, don’t suck and tip your bartenders well.