Monday Night Football Prop Bets
Despite going 10-5 with my picks, I struggled against the spread this first week of the NFL season. It was a weird week, however. The biggest underdog of the week, the New England Patriots upside the Bengals 16-10, elite Wide Receivers and Tight Ends barely made a dent in the box scores, and the strong rookie class that was expecting to make a huge impact this season was nowhere to be found.
That all being said, there is a game tonight where we can make everything right. The following are my Monday Night Football prop bets for week 1
Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-115)
Christian McCaffrey is apparently iffy for the first game of the season against the Jets due to a calf injury. McCaffrey got hurt early in training camp and didn’t practice for four weeks. He just got back to the field this week. He wasn’t able to train fully all week, and he is now officially questionable for Monday night’s game, even though he said on Friday that he was sure he would play.
I think we’re all overreacting to this news. Once CMC gets going, we know he’ll power through this. In 16 games last season, McCaffrey hit the over on carries all but four times, and two of those games were weeks 16 and 17 late in the season before the playoffs.
The Jets defense ranked 3rd in passing yards per game allowed last year, holding opposing QB’s to under 58% completion. Where they struggled was against the run. The Jets saw the third most rushing attempts on the ground last season (517). While they didn’t give up a down of rushing TDs, their opponents did feel running the ball against them was the best way to move the chains.
Anytime Touchdown (+110)
The game will be a tight, low-scoring contest; the over/under is just 43.5. That is why I feel that the Jets won’t waste opportunities when they get into the red zone. Aaron Rodgers and his ego need to be held in check and allow the team’s power runner to do the heavy lifting along the goal line.
Over 1.5 Field Goals (+110)
Sticking with the same logic that this game will be a low-scoring grudge match with two very strong defenses, I like the Jets kicker Greg Zuerlein hitting over 1.5 field goals in this contest. It can vary with different coaching staffs, but usually, fighting crowd noise on the road is an issue. Taking whatever points you can get and only going for it on 4th down when you absolutely have to is a smarter strategy to pulling off an update. A good example of this was the Texans’ win yesterday on the road against the Colts.
Long Shot Parlay +400
- Aaron Rodgers Over 232 Passing Yards (-110)
- Garrett Wilson Over 69.5 Reccing Yards (-110)
- Garrett Wilson Any time TD (+160)
Whenever you have a parlay, you want to ensure that all the bets correlate. This +400 parlay is very straightforward; it’s Rodgers to Wilson for a big day.
