Monday Night Football Prop Bets: Colts vs. Steelers
Week 12, am I right? You either cleaned up or are looking for redemption…revenge…rectification. Okay, I will stop. But you have to admit, as far as gambling, fantasy and just plain football goes Week 12 Sunday edition was a little weird.
That’s okay. We like weird. And now, it is time to bounce back or finish what you started. Last chance, and it is Monday Night Football. The Monday Night game features the Pittsburgh Steelers v Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are favored by -2.5. The implied total for the game is 39.
Remember, this is early, so more props may be available later. Shop around to find the best numbers. Until then, here are a few props to consider.
Last week I went 1-1. Good on Jimmy Garoppolo’s rushing yards and not so good on George Kittle’s first touchdown. Spoiler alert every week, I will pick the first touchdown…so buckle up, and let’s get started.
Matt Ryan, passing yards, 233.5, over -115, under -120
Since his return, in his last two games, Ryan has attempted 28 passes and 32 passes. Against the Las Vegas Raiders (his first game back after the Sam Ehlinger experiment), Ryan attempted 28 passes for 222 yards and one touchdown.
In his next game against the Philadelphia Eagles, Ryan attempted 32 passes for 213 yards. He has passed for 233.5 yards. In five of his nine games, he has passed for over 233.5 yards.
What is also clear is that new coach Jeff Saturday prefers the run versus the pass. In the last two games, Jonathan Taylor rushed 22 times in both games.
Although the Colts averaged 24.3 rushing attempts per game in the last three weeks, they have averaged 26.0 rushing attempts per game.
Look for the Colts to run the ball against the Steelers, who allow 103.4 rushing yards per game and 26.2 rushing attempts per game.
My Pick: Under – Go under for the passing yards. And if you can find a prop for Kenny Pickett that is 210.5 passing yards, go under for him also.
Najee Harris, rushing yards, 63.5, over -120, under -115
In the last three weeks, the Colts are allowing an average of 96.0 rushing yards per game. Last week against the Philadelphia Eagles, they gave up 86 rushing yards to Jalen Hurts and 47 rushing yards to Miles Sanders. The week before, they held Josh Jacobs to 78 rushing yards.
In Harris’ last three games, he has rushed for 90, 99, and 32 yards. Including his last two games in 11 games, Harris has rushed for over 63.5 yards twice. Yep, in four out of 11 games, he has rushed for over 63.5 yards.
So, do we deduce that Harris has turned a corner and is the Harris we thought he was? No.
The low implied point total, combined with the Colts’ previous ability to stop both Jacobs and Hurts, does not bode well for Harris.
My Pick: Under – Go under for 63.5 rushing yards on Harris.
Tight End, Pat Freiermuth, 43.5 receiving yards, over -125, under -105
Over the last two games, Freiermuth has been targeted 7 and 12 times. He finished with 36 and 79 receiving yards. In the nine games he has played, Freiermuth has gone over 43.5 receiving yards five times.
Since Week 7, Freiermuth has had a 24% target share. He has a 9.2 average depth of target (5th) and a 20.8% air yards share.
Freiermuth has been used down the seam and in the middle in the last two games. He has had over 43.5 receiving yards in his last four games three. The one game he did not was against New Orleans, and he had 36 receiving yards.
My Pick: Over
In five home games, the Indianapolis Colts have scored first twice. In Week 3 v Kansas City Matt Ryan to Jelani Woods, and Week 11, Jonathan Taylor a rushing touchdown.
They gave up two passing touchdowns (Robert Woods and Antonio Gibson) and a rushing touchdown to Trevor Lawrence in the other three games.
In five away games, the Pittsburgh Steelers have scored first only once, in Week 1 against the Cincinnati Bengals, and it was Minkah Fitzpatrick’s interception return for a touchdown. The opponents scored first in the other four games. All scored were passing touchdowns.
We know that the new Colts regime wants to run the ball. We also know that the Steelers have been scored upon first by the passing game. So, the players are Michael Pittman with six red zone targets, one deep target, and an average depth of target of 6.4; Parris Campbell with six red zone targets, three deep targets, and an average depth of target 5.6; and Alec Pierce with four red zone targets, 10 deep targets and an average depth of target 11.8.
Except for Raheem Mostert (first scorer on passing touchdown Week 7), the three wide receivers who scored on the Steelers had an average depth of target 13.23.
But in the one week versus Miami, the running back Mostert scored a passing touchdown.
In his last two weeks, Jonathan Taylor has been on the receiving end of two and four targets.
Taylor is a +360 first-time scorer, and Pierce is +1700. The Steelers’ defense is +3000 (the only time the Steelers have scored first when away in Week 1, a Joe Burrow interception and return).
My Pick: Taylor – The safe play is Taylor. The let’s keep it weird play is Pierce. I’m playing both because I cannot decide if the weirdness will continue.
Gladys is obsessive about fantasy football, Pittsburgh Steelers, dogs/cats, pop culture movies and television shows, and Ben & Jerry’s 7 Layer Vegan Ice Cream (although not necessarily in that order). A writer about NFL, college ball, and fantasy football for more than 10 years, she attempts to combine her degree in statistical variance (BS Policy Analysis) with player knowledge and game script. Though her concentration is on IDP, redraft, and PPR leagues, all fantasy formats are fair game. Reach out whenever you can find me on Twitter @gladysLtyler. And remember, don’t suck and tip your bartenders well.