It is time to start with Monday Night props for the New England Patriots and the Arizona Cardinals. The Patriots are a -1.5-point favorite. The predicted total is 43.5. And the Moneyline is -125 Patriots and +105 Cardinals.
Before we start, here is last Week’s accountability. I went 3-1. The one miss, of course, was the first-time touchdown (my nemesis KHAN), but I never surrender and never give up.
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Stats that matter: the Cardinals have the worst red zone defense, and the Patriots have the worst red zone offense; the Cardinals’ offense is meh, averaging 219.8 passing yards (17th) and 114.9 rushing yards (17th); the Patriots are 21st in passing yards (214.0) and 23rd in rushing yards (104.9).
This game will be without Patriots wide receiver Jakobi Meyers and, most likely, running back Damien Harris. The Cardinals will be without wide receiver Rondale Moore and tight end Zach Ertz.
Kyler Murray, 35.5 rushing yards, -120 over, -110 under
In Week 12, Murray had four designed rushing plays. He finished with seven carries for 56 yards. The Week before, he had eight carries for 60 yards.
The Patriots are stout against the quarterback in fantasy points allowed. However, they gave up 290 rushing yards to the quarterback in 51 rushing attempts and allowed two touchdowns. Now, if my math is correct (and I was told there wouldn’t be math), that is only 5.67 rushing yards per game.
But the “rushing quarterbacks” they have played against, Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields, did some damage. Jackson had 11 carries for 107 yards in the Week 3 matchup, and Fields had 14 carries for 82 yards.
My Pick: Let’s take the over on 35.5 rushing yards for Murray
Nelson Agholor, 29.5 receiving yards, -115 over, -115 under
Here is where it gets weird (except when you consider the offensive play calling for the Patriots). As stated earlier, there will be no Jakobi Meyers in the game. The Patriots have had two games without Meyers on the field. Week 3 v Baltimore, and DeVante Parker led in targets with 10. He finished with five receptions and 156 yards. Agholor saw three targets for two receptions and 41 yards.
In Week 4 against the Green Bay Packers, Rhamondre Stevenson led with five targets, with four receptions and 23 yards; but Agholor had four targets, three receptions, and 46 yards.
Agholor is averaging (with and without Meyers) 29.7 yards per game. He has 35 targets and 25 receptions (with and without Meyers).
My Pick: With little confidence in play, calling let’s go over 29.5 receiving yards for Agholor
Hunter Henry, 30.5 receiving yards, -110 over, -120 under
The Cardinals are a sieve against the tight ends. They have allowed nine touchdowns and 880 receiving yards on 83 receptions and 100 targets.
Henry is on the field for 74.2% snap share and 11.1% target share. He is 17th (for tight ends ) in routes run (251) and has been on the receiving end of three deep targets and seven red zone targets.
In his last three games, he has 13, 63, and 20 total yards against Buffalo Bills, Minnesota Vikings, and New York Jets.
Although this matchup is so exploitable, I have very little confidence (see, it is eroding with each prop) in the Patriots.
My Pick: Let’s go under 30.5 receiving yards but yes, on any time touchdown.
First Time Touchdown
The Cardinals have played seven home games. They scored a touchdown first in two games, and both of those were scored by DeAndre Hopkins. I don’t think Bill Belichick is going to let that happen.
The opponents scored the first touchdown in the other five games with three passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns.
My Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson first time touchdown and anytime touchdown
Gladys is obsessive about fantasy football, Pittsburgh Steelers, dogs/cats, pop culture movies and television shows, and Ben & Jerry’s 7 Layer Vegan Ice Cream (although not necessarily in that order). A writer about NFL, college ball, and fantasy football for more than 10 years, she attempts to combine her degree in statistical variance (BS Policy Analysis) with player knowledge and game script. Though her concentration is on IDP, redraft, and PPR leagues, all fantasy formats are fair game. Reach out whenever you can find me on Twitter @gladysLtyler. And remember, don’t suck and tip your bartenders well.