This game is between the San Francisco 49ers and the Arizona Cardinals and Vegas expects the 49ers to score 29.5 points and the Cardinals to only 13.5 points. The implied total is 43, with the 49ers an eight-point favorite.
Quarterback Kyler Murray is out and wide receiver Marquise Brown is not expected to play. For the 49ers, defensive end Samson Ebukam has had little practice throughout the week.
The four sites visited only listed quarterback props for the 49ers. When a decision is made on the status of the Cardinals quarterback, I imagine props will emerge.
Jimmy Garoppolo Passing Yards Over 247.5 (-115)
In Garoppolo’s last three games, he has had 240, 235, and 303 passing yards. Garoppolo has played the Cardinals five times; the last meeting was in November last season. In that game, he attempted 40 passes for 326 yards, averaging 8.2 yards per attempt.
In Garoppolo’s eight games this season, he had three finishes with more than 247.5 passing yards. The games were against the Carolina Panthers, where he attempted 30 passes for 253 yards. The Atlanta Falcons, where he attempted 41 passes for 296 passing yards, and the Kansas City Chiefs, where he attempted 37 passes for 303 passing yards.
In his last two games (and the acquisition of Christian McCaffrey), he has attempted 25 and 28 passes for 240 and 235 passing yards.
Bonus: Jimmy Garoppolo Over 1.5 Rushing Yards
There is a 1.5 rushing yards bet available for Garoppolo. Even with McCaffrey in the fold, Garoppolo has rushed for three yards in his last two games (one on five carries and one on a single carry).
Over 1.5 seems safe enough.
Running Back Props
Christian McCaffrey Over Rushing Yards 64.5 (-115)
McCaffrey now has three games with the 49ers. In his first game against the Kansas City Chiefs, he had eight rush attempts for 38 yards. In the next two games against the Los Angeles teams, he had 18 and 14 rush attempts. On 18 attempts, he rushed for 94 yards, and on 14 attempts, he rushed for 38 yards.
In his three games with the 49ers, McCaffrey is averaging 56.66 rushing yards a game. Last week against the Chargers, Elijah Mitchell had 18 carries to McCaffrey’s 14.
The Cardinals are giving up an average of 110.5 rushing yards per game. However, in their last three games, they have allowed an average of 132.3 rushing yards per game.
The prop for the longest rush for McCaffrey is 16.5 over for -105 and -125 under. In his three games with the 49ers, McCaffrey has 12, 25, and 12 for long rushes. In Carolina this season, he had broken 17, 19, 10, 18, 49, and 9 yards.
The Cardinals allow an average 14% explosive run rate per Sharp Football Analysis. They are tied for the highest percentage with Pittsburgh and Houston.
James Conner Over Rushing Yards: 49.5 (-120)
Conner has returned to play in both Week 9/10. His last game before that was Week 5. On November 6 against Seattle, he had seven rushing attempts for 45 yards. Last week against the Rams, he had 21 rushing attempts for 69 yards. He averaged 3.3 yards per attempt. In that game, Keaontay Ingram had one rush attempt, and backup quarterback Colt McCoy had four rushing attempts.
The Cardinals average 26 rushing attempts per game, while Conner averages 3.8 yards per attempt and 44.9 yards per game.
In his seven games this season, Conner has rushed for over 47.5 yards three times. October 9 and October 2, 55 yards, and last week 69 yards.
Conner’s last meeting against the 49ers was last November. He rushed for 96 yards on 21 attempts. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry, and the 49ers allowed 98.7 rushing yards per game.
This season the 49ers are allowing an average of 82.7 rushing yards per game. In their last three games, they have allowed an average of 73 rushing yards per game.
Tight End Props
George Kittle Over 41.5 Receiving Yards
Kittle’s targets, receptions, and receiving yards have dropped exponentially in his last three games.
|Team||Kittle’s Targets||Kittle’s Receptions||Kittle’s Yards|
|Kansas City Week 7||9||6||98|
|LAR Week 8||5||3||39|
|LAC Week 10||2||1||21|
The good news is that the Cardinals lead the league in receiving yards allowed to the tight end position (77.7). Tight ends versus the Cardinals are catching at an 83.3% catch rate. Kittle is catching at 70.7%.
The less-than-good news is that Kittle’s 48.7 receiving yards per game average consider both pre and post-McCaffrey. His stats look good with the three games with McCaffrey, averaging 52.66 receiving yards but consider the outlier performance in Week 7 against the Chiefs.
The best news is that the Cardinals are porous against the tight end position, and head coach Kyle Shanahan likes a good matchup.
Bonus Prop Bet Kittle First TD
Suppose you consider how porous the Cardinals are against the tight ends. Kittle is +900 to be the first touchdown scorer on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Although I only gave you a few prop bets, there are many options for prop betting. Shop around to find the best numbers.
Gladys is obsessive about fantasy football, Pittsburgh Steelers, dogs/cats, pop culture movies and television shows, and Ben & Jerry’s 7 Layer Vegan Ice Cream (although not necessarily in that order). A writer about NFL, college ball, and fantasy football for more than 10 years, she attempts to combine her degree in statistical variance (BS Policy Analysis) with player knowledge and game script. Though her concentration is on IDP, redraft, and PPR leagues, all fantasy formats are fair game. Reach out whenever you can find me on Twitter @gladysLtyler. And remember, don’t suck and tip your bartenders well.