Week 1 MNF Preview
The Week 1 slate closes on Monday night at Soldier Field with an NFC North matchup that brings two high-profile debuts. J.J. McCarthy is set for his first career start as Minnesota’s franchise quarterback, while Ben Johnson makes his head coaching debut for the Chicago Bears.
Minnesota enters 2025 with momentum in the betting markets. The Vikings posted an 11-6-1 record against the spread last season, a 64.7 percent cover rate that ranked among the top five in the league. Expectations are high for a roster that has been reshaped on both sides of the ball. Six new starters or heavily promoted players headline the defensive depth chart, while the offensive line has been retooled to protect McCarthy. That overhaul could be decisive given the team’s shift in playing style, especially for a club that saw over 61 percent of its games go under the total in 2024.
McCarthy’s task is clear: manage the offense and get the ball into the hands of his playmakers. He will lean heavily on Justin Jefferson, who remains one of the league’s premier receivers, and veteran Adam Thielen, who returns to Minnesota after a trade. With Jordan Addison suspended, Jalen Nailor is expected to see increased opportunities in the passing game. Running back Aaron Jones Sr. anchors the backfield alongside Jordan Mason and Ty Chandler, providing balance and veteran stability.
Defensively, Minnesota is banking on an upgraded front to pressure opposing quarterbacks. New additions Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave join edge rushers Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel, giving the Vikings one of the more aggressive pass-rushing units in the conference. The back end of the defense features cornerback Isaiah Rodgers and a reworked rotation that will be tested against a creative Chicago scheme.
For the Bears, Monday night marks the start of a new era. Johnson brings with him a reputation for explosive offense after coordinating in Detroit, and his pairing with second-year quarterback Caleb Williams is the foundation of Chicago’s rebuild. Williams showed flashes of brilliance against Minnesota last season, particularly when blitzed. In a Week 12 meeting at Soldier Field, he completed 18 of 24 passes for 214 yards and three big-time throws when pressured, earning a 92.2 grade from Pro Football Focus. Johnson will likely look to recreate that success, using tempo and mismatches to neutralize Minnesota’s pass rush.
Chicago was inconsistent in 2024 but effective against the spread at Soldier Field, finishing 5-2-1 ATS at home. Protecting Williams will be critical. Offseason additions Joe Thuney and Drew Dalman bolster the offensive line, while veteran receiver D.J. Moore remains the top option in the passing game. If Johnson’s system clicks early, the Bears could keep pace in what projects to be a tight contest.
What are the Odds?
Sportsbooks see this game set for a low-scoring divisional matchup. The total points are set at 43.5, which is extremely modest considering the amount of firepower on both offensive sides of the ball. Currently, the Vikings enter the game as -1.5 road favorites. If you’re thinking about getting in on this game, Fanatics Sportsbook promo is a great place to find a signup bonus for this contest. Last year’s meeting in Chicago went to overtime and ended with the Vikings winning 30-27. The Vikings won both games last season, but that was with Sam Darnold under center.
My Pick
I started my NFL Pick’em season off strong, going 13-2 picking winners and 8-6 against the spread this weekend. However, I’m annoyed I didn’t do better, as I really liked the Seahawks this week, but they fumbled their win in the dying minutes. Tonight’s game could go either way, but I think the Bears will win a tight game. I think the total points are too low for the week. I would lean towards the over. My prediction is Bears 24-21
