NFL Picks

Monday Night Football Prop Bets Chargers at Colts

Nick Foles

Happy last week of the month, and how are you doing? Welcome to the next to last regular season Monday Night Football game. This one will be the Los Angeles Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts, 45.5 o/u, and the Chargers favored by -4.

Before we start, let’s look at last week, where I sucked, and it wasn’t because of injuries. I went 1-4. I missed Christian Watson’s receiving yards went over 47.5, and he had 46. I missed Baker Mayfield’s pass attempts, over 30.5, and he had 21. I missed my nemesis’s first touchdown Cam Akers (and I am not giving up yet), but gI to Mason Crosby under 1.5 field goal attempts. He had one (you). I promise to try and do so much better, and we will.

Another thing before we get started, my early resolution is to never…ever…ever… bet on NFL Saturday games (unless they are playoffs)! So much bad mojo and so many bad bets but so many good games. But as Tay Tay says, “shake it off.”


Quarterback Prop

Nick Foles, Passing Attempts, 33.5 -105 over, -130 under

The Indianapolis Colts have yet another quarterback change. Foles will be under center, and Matt Ryan is out.

Statistically speaking, here we go: the Chargers average 22.3 points per game and the Colts are 30th in scoring, averaging 17.5 points per game.

This will be Foles’ first time under center, but we can still expect the Colts to play from behind.

For the season, the Colts are averaging 36.6 passing attempts per game. In the last three weeks, 34.7 passing attempts per game have been made.

In week 15, Matt Ryan attempted 33 passes. In Week 13, he had 37 passing attempts, and in Week 12, he had 34.

Foles will need to chuck the ball. So, we are going over 33.5 passing attempts for Foles.

Wide Receiver Prop

Josh Palmer, Receiving Yards, 33.5 -115 over -115 under

My number for today is 33.5, I can’t explain it, but I like it. There is an obvious reluctance to count on Palmer now that Mike Williams is back, but in Week 15, Williams was on the field for 89% of offensive snaps, Palmer 65%, with five targets, five receptions, and 49 yards.

Week 14 Williams on the field 65% offensive snaps, Palmer 79% (Williams first week back), Palmer six targets, four receptions 53 yards.

Palmer is averaging 10.82 yards per reception and 54.9 yards per game (slightly skewed by William’s absence, agreed). But as you see in the games with Williams, he has had 49 and 53 yards.

The Colts’ defense is better against the pass than the run, but they yield 66% of their fantasy points and yards to the outside receiver.

Over Palmer 33.5 receiving yards

Running Back Prop

Zack Moss, Rushing Attempts, 13.5 -140 over, +105 under

The Colts are averaging 26.1 rushing attempts per game. In their last three games, they have averaged 32.7 rushing attempts per game.

In his last game, Moss had 24 rushing attempts. That was his first game without Jonathan Taylor.

In Taylor’s last three games, he rushed 21, 20, and 22 times.

In Week 9 without Taylor, Deon Jackson was the leading rusher with 11 attempts (in a Sam Ehlinger offense).

In their last three games, the Colts have passed on 53.55% and run on 46.45% of their plays.

This number is tricky if you think Deon Jackson will be the lead running back. I don’t. Last week Moss had 24 carries to Jackson’s 11. Moss was on the field for 67% of the offensive snaps and Jackson for 32%.

Over on Moss rushing attempts, 13.5

My Nemesis

First touchdown Austin Ekeler +400

Anytime touchdown, LAC defense +375

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