Mike Evans Fantasy Preview
When it comes to wide receiver Mike Evans, a former 3-star recruit from Texas A&M and 7th overall pick in the 2014 Draft, there is a number that is really important when considering him for betting or for your fantasy team. That number is ZERO.
Zero represents the number of seasons in Mike Evans’ 9 year NFL career in which he has had less than 1,000 yards receiving. Overall, the fantasy industry is cooling on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after their dismal performance in 2022, and that was with Tom Brady. In 2022 Mike Evans had 127 targets, 77 recpetions, 1,124 yards, and 6 TDs, and that was on team with serious offensive line issues. Additionally, here are some names to consider: Johnny Manziel, Josh McCown, Mike Glennon, Jameis Winston, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Those are the names of QBs from whom Mike Evans has caught passes, and he still hasn’t had a season with under 1,000 yards receiving. So no, I’m not too worried about this year’s QB being named Trask, Wolford or Mayfield (and I am not a Baker Mayfield fan in any sort of way). Yes, Evans is getting older, he will be 30 on August 21, so the decline is likely coming soon, but I don’t expect that decline to happen in 2023.
Latest Odds
- 10+ receiving TDs +500 (bet365)
- Most regular season receiving TDs +3300 (bet365)
- Most regular season receiving yards +5000 (bet365)
- To have 1,000+ receiving yards in regular season +150 (bet365)
- Offensive Player of the Year +15,000 (BetMGM)
- Receiving Leader +6600 (BetMGM)
PROPS
- Higher/Lower 6 receiving TDs (Underdog)
- Higher/Lower 950.5 receiving yards (Underdog)
The receiving yards odds and props interest me here but not the TDs. Touchdowns can be random and predicated on the overall effectiveness of the offense. Check out my breakdown of the Bucs as to why that could be a tall task.
Current ADP
- ADP – 77
- WR ADP – 34
Fantasy Insight
These ADPs are simply too low for someone as talented as Mike Evans. Recency bias coupled with zero expectations from the Buccaneers offense is driving the price down, and that has me interested. If Evans ends up as my WR3, then I will be happy. WR2 has me a little nervous though considering the state of the Bucs offense and the multitude of WR options in better offenses in the earlier rounds. There will be weeks where Evans gets you double digit fantasy points, but there will also be a handful of weeks when he’s on the lower side. Therefore he might be matchup dependent as a FLEX option in my lineups and as a fill in during bye weeks.
Even if an offense is not going to be good, it will still put up a few points and someone will have to catch the football. There is not much behind Evans on the Bucs’ depth chart. They drafted one WR in round six of the draft and signed four college free agents. Acquisitions like that don’t scream replacing any of the WR starters.
Fantasy Value
Mike Evans is currently undervalued. In his career he averages 11.2 fantasy points per game. Last year was a bit of a down year with 9.9 per game, but the state of the offense helps to explain that. There are many WRs who have never done what Evans has done who are going higher in drafts than he is. The 7th round of the draft is more than a reasonable place to grab a WR3 with a floor like the one Evans has.
Dynasty Value
As stated earlier, Evans will be 30 this year, so that doesn’t scream ‘dynasty.’ If he’s available, and you’re in position to win this year, Evans can definitely help you though. One thing that is basically going undiscussed is Mike Evans’ contract situation. Evans is currently in the 5th year of a 5 year deal he signed in 2018. Supposedly Evans and the Bucs are in the midst of negotiations for an extension that will secure Evans for a few more years whilst freeing up some cap room the Bucs could use in future seasons. As of this writing, there is no deal yet in place. While it seems likely that a deal will get done and Evans plays out his career in Tampa, I will say that it makes his future a little murky.
Bold Prediction
Mike Evans will continue his streak of 1,000 receiving yards but double digit TDs is not something to count on in 2023. *This is my personal opinion, which may or may not reflect site projections.*
