Well, that game was just a kick in the pants. It was a hard game to enjoy after watching all the injuries.
Before we get started, my stats last week, I went 1-3: Kyler Murray’s rushing yards and Rhamondre Stevenson’s first and anytime touchdown derailed by unfortunate injuries. I missed Hunter Henry as he went over 30.5 receiving yards (in the first half) and was correct on Nelson Agholor’s receiving yards.
Let’s do whatever mojo we need to do to have this game injury free. And now it’s time to get our props on.
Tonight’s game is the Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers. The Packers are a touchdown (-7) favorite. The over-under is 39.5, the Rams are +240 on the Moneyline, and the Packers are -300.
Baker Mayfield, Passing Attempts 30.5, over -125, under -105
What kind of prop bets would this be if Mayfield was not included?
Last week in his “miraculous” comeback, Mayfield attempted 35 passes.
In their last three games, the Rams’ quarterbacks have attempted the following:
- John Wolford, 26 attempts, Week 13
- Bryce Perkins, 23 attempts, Week 12
Matthew Stafford, 18 attempts, and Bryce Perkins, 10 attempts, Week 11
I know they are not Mayfield, and Sean McVay was working with what he had. But Mayfield only played one game in those three weeks, which was Week 11 against the Baltimore Ravens (while he was a Carolina Panther).
In that game, he attempted 33 passes.
For the season, the Rams averaged 33.6 passing attempts per game. In their last three weeks, that number dropped to 28.3
Now that McVay has Mayfield, it appears the number will be closer to the season average than the three-week quarterback carousel sample size.
I bet over Mayfield’s 30.5 passing attempts.
Christian Watson, Receiving Yards 47.5, over -115, under -115
This number was 46.5. If you can find a 46.5, get it now, 47.5 is still in play.
In his last three games, Watson has 48, 110, and 48 receiving yards. He is averaging 16.04 yards per reception and 40.1 yards per game (remember he had a stretch of four consecutive games earlier in the year where he didn’t get more than 15 receiving yards, bringing down the average).
In Watson’s last three games, he has had an 81.7% snap share and ran 32 routes, a 93.6% snap share and 23 routes, and a 92.2% snap share and 28 routes.
The Rams’ defense has allowed the 11th most passing yards per game (228.6), while the Packers are averaging 220.2 passing yards and 31.7 passing attempts per game.
Bet over 47.5 Watson receiving yards per game.
Mason Crosby, Field Goals Made, 1.5 over -125, under -105
The Packers are 31st in field goal attempts with 18 ( in comparison, the Indianapolis Colts are first with 35).
In his last three home games: Week 11 v Tennessee Titans, Crosby had an extra point blocked and one field goal attempt.
Week 10 v Cowboys had two field goal attempts (missed one and four extra points).
And Week 6, v New York Jets had two field goal attempts and made one and one extra point.
Bet under Crosby 1.5 field goals made.
Okay, here we go. Green Bay has allowed 15 rushing touchdowns (9th most), and the Rams have allowed eight rushing touchdowns (8th fewest). Meanwhile, both teams have allowed 18 passing touchdowns (which is mid-range, as Kansas City has allowed the most with 30 and the Broncos have allowed the least with 12).
So… Cam Aker’s first touchdown and Christian Watson’s anytime touchdown.
If you are on a site that allows you to Rams first touchdown and Packers first touchdown AJ Dillion first touchdown for Packers.
Let’s go, and Good Luck!
Gladys is obsessive about fantasy football, Pittsburgh Steelers, dogs/cats, pop culture movies and television shows, and Ben & Jerry’s 7 Layer Vegan Ice Cream (although not necessarily in that order). A writer about NFL, college ball, and fantasy football for more than 10 years, she attempts to combine her degree in statistical variance (BS Policy Analysis) with player knowledge and game script. Though her concentration is on IDP, redraft, and PPR leagues, all fantasy formats are fair game. Reach out whenever you can find me on Twitter @gladysLtyler. And remember, don’t suck and tip your bartenders well.