Marvin Mims Fantasy Forecast
A key figure of Oklahoma’s aerial assault, Marvin Mims, now ascends to the Mile High City. Joining the Broncos under the direction of the renowned Sean Payton, the forecast is decidedly optimistic. His stellar history of fostering receiver talent and producing stars such as Michael Thomas and Brandin Cooks puts Mims in good company, especially as a player drafted within the first two rounds.
What Are The Odds?
Despite all the hype this season with Sean Payton brought in to “fix” Russell Wilson, and the news that he and Marvin Mims look good together in minicamp, the odds for Mims to win Rookie of the Year are a long shot. Currently, Mims is +6600 to win OROY. However, I guess that could be a good thing if you believe in a bounce-back season for the Broncos and were currently shopping Colorado sportsbook promotions for the upcoming season. The Broncos were overhyped last season, but the talent was there. It was the coaching staff that took the blame for the poor results, and rightfully so.
WRs drafted in the first 2 rounds for Sean Payton's teams since he became a Head coach:
2023 Marvin Mims
2016 Michael Thomas
2014 Brandin Cooks
2007 Robert Meachem
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) April 29, 2023
There is a lot of uncertainty in dynasty rookie drafts beyond the first round, so how should dynasty managers value Marvin Mims? Is he a player to watch in fantasy leagues?
Pre-NFL Draft Overview
Mims made a resounding impact during his tenure at Oklahoma. As a true freshman, he featured in nine games, averaging an impressive 16.4 yards per reception and securing nine touchdown passes alongside a 14.1% target share. His breakout at 18.8 years old falls within the 97th percentile of all wide receivers, a benchmark indicating a good chance of NFL success. Other metrics, such as entering the draft as a junior and his second-round draft capital are also positive factors toward his success. Marvin Mims’ athletic profile is also noteworthy, clocking an impeccable 4.38 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. His profile rose throughout the draft process. His speed places him as one of the fastest offensive weapons of the draft and provides an elite swiftness and skillset that both Jerry Jeudy (4.46) and Courtland Sutton (4.54) don’t have. His speed gives the Broncos’ offense the agility they were hoping to infuse into their offense when they drafted K.J. Hamler, giving them a better ability to stretch the field and giving Denver a more dynamic, balanced offense that gives Payton’s offense more options to help Rusell Wilson cook instead of sizzling out the way he did in 2022.
The 2023 Fantasy Season
With Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy leading Denver’s receiving corp, Mims’s path toward playing time will initially prove difficult outside three-receiver sets. Historically, Sean Payton’s offenses have been able to feature multiple receivers. 2016 was a year in particular that garnered good production from three: Brandin Cooks (78-1173-8), Michael Thomas (92-1137-9), and Willie Snead (72-895-4). While this is noteworthy, a caveat worth mentioning is Payton’s twist on the west coast offense. His heavy emphasis on go routes and slants from wide receivers extends to his running backs and tight ends. Alvin Kamara totaled 81 receptions each year from 2017 to 2019 and would account for 83 receptions during the 2020 season. Jimmy Graham’s had his best seasons in the Big Easy and featured and was a top weapon for Payton before being traded to the Seattle Seahawks. In addition, this is Mims’s first year in the league, and as a raw prospect, be better off starting the fantasy season on waivers. Just be sure to keep tabs on him as the season progresses, as Sutton has struggled to make a significant impact since returning from an ACL Tear and was the subject of trade rumors with Jeudy throughout the offseason. Another crucial detail that shouldn’t be overlooked is that Mims is a Payton selection, a high draft pick groomed in a new coaching system. Mims is not merely a carryover from a previous regime. Instead, he is a part of Payton’s vision for the Broncos’ future and, if history serves as a guide, a likely beneficiary of Payton’s prowess for nurturing receiver talent.
From a dynasty perspective, Mims’ prospects are promising. Currently valued as a mid-second rounder in dynasty rookie drafts and ranges around 2.5-2.10 in 12-team Superflex leagues. In a couple of my rookie drafts, I’ve even been able to grab him as late as 3.1. His extensive range of draft placement represents the potential for significant value for dynasty managers interested in a player possessing Mims’ skillset and caliber. Mims’ long-term potential is particularly enticing. While immediate rookie-year impact might be uncertain, his upside in Payton’s offense should not be undervalued. Mims’ dynasty value is underpinned by his college production, athletic profile, and Payton’s history of developing receivers. In a nutshell, Marvin Mims is a rookie to watch out for this season and a name that dynasty owners should prioritize in their drafts. I feel comfortable grabbing him early in the second round and would be ecstatic to get him later in drafts.
Josh Butler is an avid dynasty football enthusiast born in Rhode Island. A lifelong fan of the New England Patriots, when he isn’t enjoying football, he decides to follow his other passion: movies. Josh is a David Lynch fanatic, with Twin Peaks: The Return being his favorite cinematic experience. He received his Bachelor of Arts in Sociology and Political Science from Central Washington University and now works as a social worker in Portland, OR. Josh constantly challenges himself to improve his skills in the fantasy football realm and is happy to help you win, too!