The Oakland Raiders acquired RB Marshawn Lynch and a 2018 sixth-round pick from the Seattle Seahawks in exchange for a 2018 fifth-round pick.
The Raiders and Lynch have agreed to terms on a contract for the 2017 season. After weeks of negotiation, Oakland agreed to pay Lynch a $3 million base, with a chance to make $2 million more if he gains 1,000 yards. The max value of the contract is $8.5 million.
There seem to be two trains of thought in regards to Marshawn Lynch’s return to football and his expectations for the 2017 Fantasy Football season. There are some that believe that the time away from the game will heal old wounds and allow Lynch to fully recover from the grueling toll that a running back can endure as a ball carrier in the NFL. There are also some who believe that the Raiders have one of the better offensive lines in the league and that adding Lynch to a team with a young promising quarterback in Derek Carr, would create a nice balanced offense.
The glass half empty train of the thought is that older running backs don’t last long in the NFL and Lynch won’t be able to handle the week to week grind of the game. The time away could also have made Beast Mode soft that would undoubtedly make him more vulnerable to injury.
Lynch still needs to pass a physical before the trade and signing can become official. However, the Raiders wouldn’t have gone to all this trouble if they weren’t sure Lynch wasn’t ready for a return. Lynch met with the Raiders on April 5th and expressed his desire to play for them. The Raiders were then apparently impressed with Lynch’s conditioning at his visit which has to lead to the recent acquisition.
| Best Rushing Seasons by a 30+ Year-Old | |||||||
| Rank | Player | Age | Team | Year | Att | Yards | TDs |
| 1 | Tiki Barber | 30 | NYG | 2005 | 357 | 1,860 | 9 |
| 2 | Curtis Martin | 31 | NYJ | 2004 | 371 | 1,697 | 12 |
| 3 | Tiki Barber | 31 | NYG | 2006 | 327 | 1,662 | 5 |
| 4 | Barry Sanders | 30 | DET | 1998 | 343 | 1,491 | 4 |
| 5 | Priest Holmes | 30 | KC | 2003 | 320 | 1,420 | 27 |
| 6 | Warrick Dunn | 30 | ATL | 2005 | 280 | 1,416 | 3 |
| 7 | Thomas Jones | 31 | NYJ | 2009 | 331 | 1,402 | 14 |
| 8 | Emmitt Smith | 30 | DAL | 1999 | 329 | 1,397 | 11 |
| 9 | Thomas Jones | 30 | NYJ | 2008 | 290 | 1,312 | 13 |
| 10 | Curtis Martin | 30 | NYJ | 2003 | 323 | 1,308 | 2 |
| 11 | Ricky Watters | 31 | SEA | 2000 | 278 | 1,242 | 7 |
| 12 | Ricky Watters | 30 | SEA | 1999 | 325 | 1,210 | 5 |
| 13 | Garrison Hearst | 30 | SF | 2001 | 252 | 1,206 | 4 |
| 14 | Emmitt Smith | 31 | DAL | 2000 | 294 | 1,203 | 9 |
| 15 | Fred Taylor | 31 | JAC | 2007 | 223 | 1,202 | 5 |
| 16 | Fred Taylor | 30 | JAC | 2006 | 231 | 1,146 | 5 |
| 17 | Warrick Dunn | 31 | ATL | 2006 | 286 | 1,140 | 4 |
| 18 | Ricky Williams | 32 | MIA | 2009 | 241 | 1,121 | 11 |
| 19 | Herschel Walker | 30 | PHI | 1992 | 267 | 1,070 | 8 |
| 20 | Thurman Thomas | 30 | BUF | 1996 | 281 | 1,033 | 8 |
| 21 | Christian Okoye | 30 | KC | 1991 | 225 | 1,031 | 9 |
| 22 | Eddie George | 30 | TEN | 2003 | 312 | 1,031 | 5 |
| 23 | Emmitt Smith | 32 | DAL | 2001 | 261 | 1,021 | 3 |
| 24 | James Stewart | 30 | DET | 2002 | 231 | 1,021 | 4 |
| 25 | Mike Anderson | 32 | DEN | 2005 | 239 | 1,014 | 12 |
| 26 | James Brooks | 31 | CIN | 1990 | 195 | 1,004 | 5 |
Chart & Data Source: SportingCharts.com
Fantasy Breakdown
The debate on where Marshawn Lynch should be drafted now begins. This morning when news broke that the Raiders and Seahawks had come to terms on a trade, the Fantasy Football Communality lit up in a discussion about what he’s really worth, and where to draft him. It’ll take time before enough drafts can create an ADP to place him accordingly, but personally, I don’t think I would reach beyond a late 3rd round pick on him. Lynch does have a 1,000 yard added incentive bonus in his contract which was a brilliant move created for motivation, yet I’m more worried about the workload distribution and whether Lynch can stay healthy for 16 games.
Let’s throw around some numbers just for fun.
| NAME | ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | YDS/G | 1DN |
| Latavius Murray | 195 | 788 | 4 | 12 | 56.3 | 52 |
| Jalen Richard | 83 | 491 | 5.9 | 1 | 30.7 | 14 |
| DeAndre Washington | 87 | 467 | 5.4 | 2 | 33.4 | 19 |
| Derek Carr | 39 | 70 | 1.8 | 0 | 4.7 | 5 |
| Jamize Olawale | 17 | 47 | 2.8 | 2 | 2.9 | 5 |
| Johnny Holton | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 | 2.9 | 2 |
| Marquette King | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Amari Cooper | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt McGloin | 3 | -3 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| Taiwan Jones | 1 | -8 | -8 | 0 | -0.6 | 0 |
| Totals | 434 | 1922 | 4.4 | 17 | 120.1 | 98 |
However, accounting for opportunity is one thing, but assuming the 12 touchdowns that Murray had last year is also transferable is where Fantasy owners will over think things. The Raiders had 17 rushing touchdowns as a team in 2016, but just 7 rushing TD’s as a team in 2015 and 4 in 2014. I wouldn’t expect double digit scores for Lynch, as that would over-project Lynch’s value and cause you to reach in a draft. I think the best advice, for now, is to be optimistic, but yet stay grounded with his fantasy ceiling. Injury to an older RB is high, and something all fantasy owners need to be prepared for if they draft him.
On a side note, I find it to be very surprising that Lynch and Adrian Peterson, who signed with the Saints yesterday, both land on teams right before the NFL draft. This is either a knock at the rookie RB draft class or a sign that both the Saints and Raiders don’t want to waste any picks on the running back position.
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