Kyle Pitts Fantasy Outlook 2022

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Kyle Pitts Fantasy 2022

Kyle Pitts is one of the most hyped-up players for fantasy football this season, and that’s all because of one word: potential. Pitts isn’t a guaranteed asset like many of the other players going in the third round, but his potential to take the next step into stardom and become one of the best tight ends in the game is enough for fantasy managers to rationalize reaching for him as high as the third round.

Fantasy Stud Potential

Will Pitts reach new heights and become the game-changing player that many hope he will be, or will he be underwhelming and be a burden on those who took the shot on him?

Last season, Pitts was able to really put his talent on display, nearly breaking the rookie record for tight end receiving yards and making many flashy plays that showcased his athleticism. He showed exceptional ability in most facets of the game, including but not limited to winning jump balls at the catch point, extending plays after the catch, finding the soft spots in the opponent’s defenses, and even showing some potential in his limited time as a blocker.

In addition to all of this, Pitts is still really young and doesn’t have much tread on the tires. Rookie tight ends generally aren’t high producers, so putting up the numbers that he did during his rookie season is very telling of just how talented he really is.

Rookie Season Recap

Pitts didn’t have the best of situations in 2021, playing for a lackluster Atlanta offense that had trouble getting themselves into scoring situations. Despite last year being a less-than-ideal situation, it projects to be even worse for this upcoming season. The team traded away franchise quarterback Matt Ryan to the Colts this off-season, and they picked up free agent Marcus Mariota to replace him. Mariota could end up being decent, but moving from a big-arm pocket passer like Ryan to a less accurate scrambler like Mariota is a move that will almost certainly hinder some of Pitts’ production.

#Falcons Kyle Pitts working against LB Rashaan Evans. Again, it's not fair. pic.twitter.com/7m6ABaFk8t

— Kevin Knight (@FalcoholicKevin) August 2, 2022

#Falcons safety Richie Grant with excellent coverage against Kyle Pitts. He's been the only player able to match up with him consistently in camp. pic.twitter.com/TiQCgrzuYK

— Kevin Knight (@FalcoholicKevin) August 4, 2022

There is an off chance that rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder out of Cincinnati could see some playing time this season, but he is a project and would likely be even worse for the Atlanta pass catchers. The rest of the team as a whole didn’t improve much this off-season either. They didn’t do much to improve their sub-par defense, and on top of that, they are losing star wide receiver Calvin Ridley due to a season-long suspension he was given by the NFL.

The Falcons did add first-round talent WR Drake London through the NFL Draft, and he projects to soak up much of the vacated targets. Even with all of this considered, Pitts has a current ADP of 34.8 in PPR formats, which makes him the third tight end coming off the board, behind only Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce.

Screenshot image credit: pro-football-reference.com

Fantasy Impact

Kyle Pitts’s ADP is too high in my eyes, while there’s no denying that his potential is out of this world, I can’t see him improving too much that would justify where he’s going in drafts.

Pitts was TE6 in PPR last season with 176.6 points in Fantasy leagues. At his current ADP, he would need to score in the 215 to 225 point range to justify his draft position. With the change at QB from Matt Ryan to Marcus Mariota and the fact the WR1 on the Falcons is being replaced by a rookie, I just don’t see bigger numbers. I do think he’ll see score more touchdowns, but the Falcons as a whole are likely to produce less in the passing game.

If for whatever reason you can get Pitts in the back half of the 4th round or later, then jump at the chance to drat him. But the mid-second round is too high for me.