Opportunity Index: Week 10
Recapping Results from Week 9
After each week this season I will dive into my Opportunity Index data and use it to analyze which committee running back you want to own, which wide receiver is due for positive (or negative) regression, which tight ends are in the best positions to succeed, etc. But first, if you don’t know what Opportunity Index you can read more about it here. Get familiar with it because I think it’s one of the most comprehensive, and useful, stats in the industry.
Last week was a big one for OI as it helped me nail a couple of huge calls. It helped see a great matchup for Mark Ingram and some sneaky good matchups for Jay Ajayi and Melvin Gordon. Darren Sproles was a solid start again, but didn’t deliver a huge game as we expected. In the passing game, the Dolphins were a dud, but Kenny Britt and Dak Prescott both put up very solid games.
Let’s see what Week 10 has in store for us.
David Johnson is the play of the week, Andre Ellington a sneaky start
There’s no doubt that Johnson is the play of the week as he gets that same defense that Mark Ingram tore up a week ago. This is a strong force facing a very movable object. Johnson is coming in with a 37.3 percent team OI share, which ranks tied for second best in the league and his rushing efficiency (+0.10 FPTS per opportunity vs. expected) ranks ninth.
If you’re in a huge pinch at running back and believe in the lines that Vegas sets (Cardinals are -13.5 home favorites) then we should see a lot of garbage time, which could mean a lot of second-half run for Ellington.
Devontae Booker in a nice bounce-back spot[the_ad id=”66786″]Coming off a very disappointing game, Booker owners are likely down on his prospects moving forward. However, he gets a nice “get right” matchup vs. New Orleans where the over/under has increased 2.5 points to 49.5. The Saints are the third-worst defense against the run (1.03 +/-) and rank 23rd against running backs in the passing game (0.28 +/-). Booker has been very inefficient over the last couple of weeks — he’s scoring -0.78 FPTS per opportunity vs. expected — but sometimes it takes a great matchup in an paced-up game to fix that problem.
Chris Ivory a DFS value
The Texans haven’t been performing well vs. the run as their 0.67 +/- suggests, however, their allowing the fifth-lowest adjusted OI (-11.5%). This tells me that teams aren’t attacking the Texans on the ground, but given the recent changes to the Jaguars’ offense it seems like Ivory is in line for a bigger workload. Last week, Ivory put up the fourth-highest OI Rating (157.3%) and a 26.4 percent team OI market share, including a 41.9 percent team goal line share. At $3,400, Ivory is a great punt play on DraftKings.
Ryan Mathews is the new Matt Asiata
For two straight weeks, Mathews has seen the field for just eight snaps but he’s scored a touchdown because he’s basically turned into a goal line back aka a vultuer aka the new Asiata. Mathews’ OI Rating, which is a per-snap metric, is through the roof at 181.6 percent because he’s seeing 17.0 snaps per game, but also has a 51.3 percent share of the team’s goal line OI.
Stream Joe Flacco, play Mike Wallace in DFS
It’s the Ravens turn to pick apart this Browns defense, which makes Flacco a nice streaming option. Flacco ranks 33rd out of 36 quarterbacks in terms of efficiency, but the Browns are the worst defense in terms of adjusted +/- as they’re allowing +1.72 FPTS per opportunity vs. expected to opposing quarterbacks. Cleveland is also the worst at defending opposing wide receivers (+2.56 +/-) so while Wallace is likely already rostered in your season-long leagues, he makes for a great DFS play. Over his last two games, Wallace has a whopping 20.3 percent team OI share.
Alshon Jeffery poised for a big game[the_ad id=”63198″]Over the last four weeks we’ve seen the Jeffery we’ve been accustomed to as he’s posted a 20.7 percent team OI share (ranks fourth). This is great news as he’s heading into a great matchup vs. Tampa Bay, which ranks 24th in adjusted +/- (+1.07) allowed to opposing wide receivers. Jeffery has also seen 19.2 percent of the team’s goal line share, but has yet to cash in from that area. We could see a bunch of fantasy points fall into Jeffery’s lap on Sunday.
Play Tom Brady naked in DFS
Some people might be scared off Brady due to his matchup with Seattle, but the hidden secret is that Seattle hasn’t been great over the last month at stopping the pass. Add in the fact that Seattle has been the toughest vs. the run and you have a pretty clear gameplan that the Patriots will follow to try and win on Sunday night. Stacking Brady is always a tough job because there are so many weapons so throwing him in your DFS lineup on his own (i.e., “naked”) is a great way to get exposure to the Patriots offense.
Dennis Pitta is the play of the week at TE
See analysis about Flacco and Wallace above, but instead of being the worst at defending the position the Browns are only the second worst (+5.41 +/-). Pitta has the ninth-highest team OI share (12.4%) among tight ends and I think his touchdownless streak ends this Sunday.
Antonio Gates still clingling onto fantasy value
We’ve seen Gates make a comeback over the last month posting a fourth-ranked 14.6 percent team OI share and averaging 47.5 snaps per game. He’s been a beast on a per-snap basis as his 201.3 percent OI Rating is easily the top mark at the position over the last month and the Dolphins have been very friendly to tight ends this season with a +1.61 +/-.
Check out all Gridiron Experts OI Data Here
George has been playing fantasy baseball since he was a kid, filling out every Sporting News salary league card, but never sending one in due to his lack of a checking account. He still remembers the time he spot-started Storm Johnson and got a rushing TD out of it. Never forget.